Democratic Primary in NC-03 (What's Up, Doc?)

Thomas Mills published something today that perked me up: "If 2026 becomes a big Democratic wave year, both NC-01 and NC-03 could be Democratic after the votes are counted." I've looked more at NC-01 because of the travails of Democrat Don Davis, trying to hang on to the seat that Republicans gerrymandered anew and at the behest of Donald Jethro Trump just to get rid of him. So I'm a little surprised to hear NC-03 mentioned so optimistically. Republican Greg Murphy's historically very safe seat, immediately next door to Don Davis's, had to become just a little less Republican in order to torture Davis. Mills is alert for surprises, like what just happened in a special election in Texas for a state senate seat. The Democrat beat the Republican there by 14 points, in a district that Trump won in '24 by 17 points. In Texas!

I felt called to educate myself a little about the Democrats running in the NC-03 March primary.

Raymond E. Smith Jr.

Raymond E. Smith Jr.

He's an impressive candidate on paper, a former member for two terms of the NC House representing Wayne and Sampson counties and a member at large of the Wayne County Board of Education. He likes to go by "Dr. Raymond E. Smith," displaying a degree he earned the hard way. He's proud to have earned actually three degrees from North Carolina HBCUs -- Bachelor’s Degree in Supply Chain Management, a Masters in Public Administration, and a Doctorate in Education Leadership. Leadership and civic service runs in his family. His father was a Marine and served with distinction, and his mother was herself an 18-year veteran on the School Board. Raymond Jr. is a decorated Gulf War combat veteran, former military policeman, and a statewide transportation planner for the NCDOT. Among other impressive things.

He recently got a huge boost. The Congressional Black Caucus in DeeCee endorsed him, which means more than just money -- and the money ain't nothing to sneeze at -- for there's tactical support as well. “It means access to resources. It means that our base can be energized by the thought that they have a legitimate candidate in this race,” Smith said.

Smith filed to run on December 15, some two weeks after the opening of filing. Was he recruited by the Congressional Black Caucus?

I looked closely at his record and found a couple of things he doesn't go into on his website.

2018 -- 1st election to NCH-21, took 52.65% of the vote.

2020 -- reelection, took 53%.

2022 -- did not run for reelection to NCH-21 but elected to run for NCS-4 in the Democratic primary against incumbent Democratic Senator Toby Fitch. Fitch got 54.5%; Smith, 45.5%.

2023 -- ran for Mayor of Goldsboro and lost by six votes. That's the kind of loss that can actually energize and count as a kind of moral win.

Allison Jaslow

Beginning my research into Jaslow, I immediately encountered a very disturbing sentence in a press article (which I certainly hope is a misprint). This passage appeared in Reflector.com and prominently featured the Republican opinion that the Democrats are whistling Dixie if they think they can win NC-03, so I'm wary of a bias here:

Democrat Raymond Smith, a U.S. Army veteran and former member of the North Carolina House of Representatives from Goldsboro, filed to seek the seat on Monday. Then on Thursday, the party fielded Allison Jaslow, a former Army captain and Iraq War veteran who touted her military background in an announcement. Jaslow currently has Cary and and Washington, D.C., addresses, but her campaign said she will relocate to District 3.

"The party fielded Allison Jaslow"? Holy crap. If that's true, then someone important considers Smith a loser (perhaps based on his last two outings? or who knows what else?), for Jaslow is pretty much a star in her own right, a combat veteran with two tours in Iraq, a chief of staff on Capitol Hill to a congresswoman, served in the Obama administration as part of the White House communications team, and is currently CEO and spokeswoman for Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America (IAVA). She's been on CNN and MSNBC panels numerous times and handles herself well. The fact that she doesn't -- or didn't -- have a residence in NC-03 also strongly suggests some third-party recruitment. Dunno, but I'm suspicious.

Jaslow is clearly a ball of fire, an accomplished political operative, and extremely confident of herself. Whatever the outcome in less than a month, I'm going to be following up.

No Hope that NC Republicans Become Human Beings

The U.S. House just passed a bill, 267 to 157, that would formally repeal the Defense of Marriage Act, the 1996 law against same-sex marriage that was overturned in the Supreme Court landmark Obergefell decision. It would require states to reciprocally recognize marriages that are legal in other states as valid, and would prohibit discrimination under state law in public acts against married couples based on their race, sex, ethnicity, or national origin.

All of the Republicans representing North Carolina voted against it. Specifically...

Dan Bishop (N.C.)

Ted Budd (N.C.)

Madison Cawthorn (N.C.)

Virginia Foxx (N.C.)

Richard Hudson (N.C.)

Patrick McHenry (N.C.)

Greg Murphy (N.C.)

David Rouzer (N.C.)

Astounding, that these "freedom-lovers" and "-defenders" are willing to sacrifice the rights of fellow citizens to satisfy -- what? -- religious fundamentalism and the dictates of an ideology that intends to punish difference. I would say these guys are going to hell, except they're already there. 

Belly Dancing for Donald Trump

I count 37 North Carolina Republicans who want to go to Washington, or who want to remain in Washington -- Republicans who have filed for either the US Senate seat currently held by Thom Tillis and Republicans who have filed in one of our 13 Congressional districts (including seven Republican incumbents). I went looking to see which ones wrap themselves most theatrically around Donald Trump, and which ones keep a more antiseptic distance. This is a survey based on cursory evidence -- a quick tour of candidate websites and/or social media feeds.

We know Senator Thom Tillis as a conspicuous Trump toady, a lickspittle who's been trying to take back that one moment of independent thought he had about Trump's state of emergency at the southern border, but the one person you don't see on Tillis's website is Trump. Nor hear his name. However, the Tillis Twitter feed is a different story -- littered with little coos of @RealDonaldTrump and pictures of Dear Leader and links to articles about how deaf, blind, and dumb the Democrats are for failing to recognize the greatness of Trump. His Twitter feed looks like a burlesque act for an audience of one. He puts tassels on his tits and twirls them for Trump.

In the Republican primary for Congressional District 1 -- and the privilege of getting to lose to Democratic incumbent G.K. Butterfield -- Republican candidate Sandy Smith, who likes to refer to herself as the "Little Red Firecracker," is in a pro-Trump class all to herself. She had intended to run against Thom Tillis in the senatorial primary, but -- well, I'll let her explain:

Why not continue to primary Thom Tillis? I originally ran against Thom Tillis for the US Senate in order to defeat him for his horrible anti-Trump rhetoric, opposing the border wall, supporting gun control, among other liberal positions.

It was not long after I filed for Senate that he began to change his tune and passionately support President Trump. He even changed his vote in support of the border wall, even though he publicly said he would not support it previously.

Then, President Trump endorsed Thom Tillis for reelection. Like many of you, I am skeptical of Tillis’ “newly found support” and my entire reason for running was to hold Thom Tillis accountable for being a roadblock to the America-first agenda. Then last week President Trump reaffirmed his endorsement of Tillis. President Trump very clearly wants Thom Tillis to be reelected.

Thom Tillis now owes President Trump for helping him clear the field, and honestly, Tillis can’t win reelection against the Democrats without President Trump’s help. So I have a feeling he will remain a supporter of the president, at least until November. By 2020, there should be more conservative senators in office to counter Thom Tillis if he decides to go back to his old ways.

The Little Red Firecracker has some competition in the CD-01 primary from Michelle Nix, who says she's running against Butterfield because he voted to impeach Trump and brags that she was a Trump delegate to the Republican National Convention in 2016 and says she traveled the state on Trump's behalf. "Trump" is all over her issues page, along with his photograph.

Greg Murphy was only just elected to Congress in CD-03 last year, so I was curious how he would play Trump. He's a medical doctor, and what I see on his website looks like a quarantine to lessen infection. Under the heading "Greg Murphy on the issues," he headlines this: "SUPPORT PRESIDENT TRUMP." The wording of what follows is equivocal while ostensibly kissing ass:

President Trump is one of the few Presidents in recent memory who is attempting to do exactly what he said he was going to do on the campaign trail. If Senate Republicans had supported him, Obamacare would have been repealed. I will support the Trump agenda because it is the people’s agenda, especially Eastern North Carolina that voted so overwhelming in his favor."

Short version: When the people cease to support Trump, so will I.

For a celebrity hound who is famous for photo-bombing President Trump, Congresswoman Virginia Foxx (CD-05) stays strictly separate from the Prez and never mentions his name on her website and social media accounts. Go figure. She's been photographed multiple times standing practically in his armpit.

David Rouzer in the CD-07 is adamant on his official website: "Rouzer Lays Out Case Against Impeachment Sham." On Facebook he has been a warrior against Democrats over impeachment, for which he sometimes suffers significant anti-Trump blow-back from his constituents. Rouzer is constantly defending Trump on his Twitter feed.

Big contrast on Trumpiness between Congressman Richard Hudson (CD-08) and newly installed Congressman Dan Bishop (NC-09). Bishop on his Twitter feed obviously feels his Trumpy oats, adding to the echo chamber that anyone who supports the impeachment is disloyal to America, while Hudson nowhere mentions Trump -- ever.

Congressman Patrick McHenry (CD-10) rivals Thom Tillis for coochee dancing for Trump's benefit on Twitter, though, like Foxx, he clearly doesn't have a use for Trump on his campaign website.

Here ends this survey, because there's only so much punishment a body can take in one morning, and I'm out of coffee.

Does It Matter If the Conservative Wears a Skirt?

The primary run-off today between two Republican conservatives down in the NC-3 has turned into a contest into whether the GOP likes or wants women in Congress. Many high-profile Republican women, including Virginia Foxx, are verbally supporting Joan Perry, an anti-abortion pediatrician, while high-profile conservative men like Congressman Mark Meadows from the NC-11 are supporting Greg Murphy. The New York Times has covered the race ("A Battle of the Sexes") and so has the Washington Post.

The winner of the primary run-off today is expected to win the September election against Democrat Allen Thomas.

UPDATE
Greg Murphy won this primary run-off with around 60% of the vote.

The Wrong Man Won the Democratic Primary in the NC-3 Special Election, But On the Other Hand, Who Cares?

Allen Thomas

Allen Thomas won the Democratic primary yesterday in the NC-3 special election with slightly over 50% of the vote over his nearest rival, ex-Marine fighter pilot Richard Bew. I was pulling for Bew. Since filing for office, Thomas, who's a strongly pro-business Democrat, has been tarred by a bad audit report on the North Carolina Global TransPark. He was executive director of the TransPark during the period of the audit but stepped down to run for this office.

Oh well. The NC-3 has never been considered anything but "safe Republican."

Naturally, with 17 Republicans running in their primary yesterday, there was bound to be a run-off on July 9th. Two medical doctors finished 1st and 2nd in that primary, with 22.54% and 15.44 percent of the vote respectively -- Dr. Greg Murphy of Greenville, a currently serving member of the NC House, and Dr. Joan Perry of Kinston. They'll face off in a second primary.

Perry is a big anti-abortion pro forced breeding Republican pediatrician who had big-dollar support from the Susan B. Anthony List as well as Winning for Women Action Fund (WFW AF), a Super PAC focused on electing more conservative women to office. She'll probably lose to Murphy in the 2nd primary.

I confess that I have lost all interest in this particular special election.