Someone Watched the Dems Debate!

The best political reporters in Raleigh, Laura Leslie and Mark Binker, analyze the performance of the three main candidates in the first debate leading up to the Democratic primary for governor.

The Guv Floods the Lido Deck

 Coming completely out of the blue, right at 9 a.m. this morning, was the rumor of an announcement that Gov. Beverly Perdue would not be running for reelection. That rumor was confirmed as fact about an hour or so later.

The scramble among Democrats with state-wide ambitions was palpable, and we could hear through our Twitter feed the scraping of chairs on hardwood, the slamming of doors, the crashing of china all the way up here in Boone. And smell the sweat of ambition.

The downside is pretty obvious: we're two weeks away from candidate filing with the top job in the state suddenly an open seat. Who gets trampled in the stampede?

The upside is also perhaps pretty obvious: with a consistently unpopular governor out of the picture, the fall elections become a referendum on the Republican-dominated General Assembly rather than a referendum on Perdue, a shift in focus that might give Pat McCrory a pause or a little acid reflux, depending on how self-aware he is.

Several strong Democrats will emerge to challenge one another in a primary. Several weak Democrats will also probably jump in. A hot primary is guaranteed, which produces another obvious upside: the passage of North Carolina's notorious, unnecessary, and wholly discriminatory anti-gay Amendment One becomes a lot less certain. (There was even a suggestion on Twitter this morning that Perdue had deliberately out-foxed the Republicans by making a deal to put the amendment on the primary ballot, knowing that there would be a hot race to replace her. Not likely, but cool if true.)

There has to be some sort of Prophet of the Year plaque made up for presentation to Rep. Bill Faison, who's been saying for months that The Guv would step aside rather than run for reelection. Most people poo-pooed that prediction, including Yours Truly, for which I now repent, apologize, and ask for forgiveness.

Conspiracy Theory of the Day: Floating out there in Punditstan is the suggestion that it was the Obama White House that showed Gov. Perdue the door and that her exit from the scene increases Obama's chances of taking North Carolina again. That's clear-thinking, IMO. But the theory goes on to suggest that Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx has been groomed by the same White House to now run for governor, a theory that will have a mercifully short shelf-life, given that candidate filing starts on February 13.

Wha's Up With This?

NC House Rep. Bill Faison made some show of announcing today that he had loaned his campaign $500,000, considerably more than he would need for a successful reelection campaign for his House seat.

Refuses to say what he plans to do with that pile, though he's already promised he wouldn't run a primary against Bev Perdue. He's also been less than polite in calling on Perdue to step aside, so we've gotten some mixed messages.

Exile on Jones St. ventures that a gubernatorial primary is "looking more likely." Which perhaps only proves that it's not just a quarter of Republican voters in Iowa who have a death wish.

Over-Caffeinated?

Hard to figger Rep. Bill Faison's interview with WRAL's Laura Leslie as anything less than an admission that he's dying to take on Gov. Bev Perdue in a primary next year.

"...I think ultimately Governor Perdue will do the right thing and decide not to run. I don’t believe you’ll ever see her file [to run for reelection],” Faison said.

Faison had already caused a bit of a ruckus about the failings of the Guv but then surprised many by announcing that he would not run against her.

He seems to be backsliding rapidly. When Leslie asked if he's still interested in running against Perdue, he replied, "Well, I certainly think we need strong leadership at the top of the ticket, and I’m certainly giving consideration to it. That’s a decision for some time in the future."

The future is pretty much standing on the door-stoop, with filing for office scheduled by the state Board of Elections for the first week of February.

A warning shot by Faison or just an unwise flapping of the lip to the best political reporter in the state? Hard to figger. It's clear enough that the indictment yesterday of two Perdue aides and a close friend for campaign violations in 2008 -- even though the prosecutor took pains to say that Perdue was not a target -- is the proximate cause for Faison's fantasy-talk. Faison has been public and loud in challenging the Republican leadership over jobs, and doing it all over the place, which is welcome, especially at a time when state Democratic leaders seem tongue-tied too often (including the governor -- recall her hemming and hawing over the anti-gay equality amendment).

Faison might have some trouble drawing disaffected Dem progressives to his insurgency, should one develop. Just yesterday, the Art Pope org Civitas Action rated Faison as one of the more conservative Dems in the NC House.