Sunday, February 04, 2024

New Analysis (and Predictions) about 2024

If you're a glutton for dense economic and political reading, you might be expected to wallow for a time in a new report from Moody's Analytics on the 2024 election for president. Relying heavily on economic data and trends, Moody's Analytics has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1948 (except for 2020), and their current report says Biden will win North Carolina by 0.3% and the national election too.

But there are plenty of buts to keep in mind. The analysis is based on an assumption that turnout will be the same as turnout in 2020. "Even a relatively minor increase in turnout among Republicans in North Carolina could tip the scales in favor of a Trump victory," Justin Begley, one of the Moody's economists who wrote the report, told Paige Mastin at the NandO. "Low turnout among Democrats could have a similar effect."

That possibility -- either one -- might give you a good case of the willies. But I'm thinking -- okay, I'm counting on -- lowered turnout among Republicans and increased turnout by Unaffiliated voters who do not lean toward Trump. Somewhat less concerning at the moment would be the possibility that a third-party candidate might catch fire and seriously damage the prospects for either Trump or Biden.

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