Blue Wave or Roy Cooper's Coattails -- Either Will Do Just Fine

 

Mike Schietzelt

 

Democrats are counting on a big Blue Wave, especially in Wake County, to truly put a permanent crimp in the GOP's veto-proof House majority. One of the only remaining Republicans representing any part of Wake, Mike Schietzelt in HD 35, has been targeted for defeat by Democrat Evonne Hopkins, a family law specialist who ran against Schietzelt in 2024 before he was the incumbent and lost to him by only 200 or so votes. Carolina Forward has endorsed Hopkins. I'm very curious how fundraising is going for her, and was frustrated to find that the 2nd Quarter report which was due at the State Board of Elections on July 10th hasn't been posted. Schietzelt also hasn't reported for the 2nd Quarter. Cash-on-hand for the two campaigns, and where the cash is coming from, will tell us a good deal about whether there's grassroots juice rising for either candidate.

Schietzelt is getting big money from the House Republican caucus and plenty of support from Speaker Destin Hall and the whole networked donor base that concentrates on keeping the General Assembly imperious to any Democratic governor. 

Schietzelt is fascinating as a new character in the NC GOP because he eschews culture war and MAGA shit in favor of practical matters that suburbanites actually care about a lot more, like his strong opposition to changing the Capitol Blvd. corridor from downtown Raleigh to Wake Forest into a toll road. Schietzelt appears to be a young and affable but also conservative policy lawyer with a suburban governing style. He's not trying to become a firebrand. He's trying to become known as someone who solves practical district problems.

Evonne Hopkins

 

His first-term incumbency gives him an advantage over Evonne Hopkins. This is her second contest with Schietzelt. She did very well against him in 2024, and some think that loss established for her enough name recognition to overcome Schietzelt's incumbency advantage. I don't know about that. Familiarity can also breed contempt. I hate to suggest it, but I think it's true.

The Civitas Partisan Index puts HD 35 at R + 0, pure tossup, but I actually think Schietzelt has the advantage. It may well come down to how overwhelmingly Roy Cooper beats Michael Whatley in Wake. His coattails may be as potent as any hoped-for Blue Wave.

 

Schietzelt Will Breeze Through His Primary

 

Part of a series examining the candidates recruited by North Carolina Educators on the Ballot (NCEOB) --  progressives running as Republicans to primary incumbent Republicans in the NC House.

 

The Republican Incumbent in H 35

Mike Schietzelt has been in office barely a year so far and is running hard for reelection in House District 35, which the Civitas Partisan Index rates R+0, or "Toss-Up." District 35 is a jagged carved-up mess across northern Wake County meant to give Republican candidates something more than a zero chance to prevail. Schietzelt barely won it in 2024 with a margin of only 1,800 votes over his Democratic opponent Evonne S. Hopkins (who is back again this year for the rematch, if Schietzelt survives his primary). The Libertarian candidate in '24 took 1,500 votes, which demonstrates a potential to bollox the major party, and there's a Libertarian candidate again in 2026.

To look at Schietzelt's website is to see before your astonished eyes a moderate Democrat from approximately 1978 -- affable family man who finds building community and strengthening public schools the greatest virtues of civic life, an ex-Marine who became a lawyer and who is most definitely not into puritanical cruelty and wedge issues, and besides that, he's fun! He once upon a time played in live bands on cruise ships and took his expert horn-playing with him into the Corps, where he became a member of The Commandant's Own Drum and Bugle Corps stationed at the Marine Barracks in Southeast Washington, where he often performed for dignitaries and at special events including burials at Arlington. 

But you start looking deeper, and you start going uh-oh, we may be in trouble.

Duke Law School.

Clerked for Chief Justice Mark D. Martin of the North Carolina Supreme Court.

Worked for the John Locke Foundation, researching and publishing on issues related to the criminal code.

The first Constitutional Law Fellow of Regent University School of Law's Robertson Center for Constitutional Law.

 A Lecturer at Regent, taught courses on the First Amendment and religious liberty.

Schietzelt wrote one of the amicus briefs in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health, advocating for the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which is exactly what the Supreme Court did. 

An intellectual conservative with a theological bent! Churches uber alles. He has argued the rights of churches to fire because of gayness and to preach a political message from the pulpit. Schietzelt is medieval like that.

But I'll give him this (and take note of the conditional phrasing): Schietzelt sponsored a bill that would have increased starting teacher pay to $50,000 and provided a 22% increase in salaries, and that language was actually incorporated into the House budget proposal, which the NC Senate has stubbornly refused to accept, which is why North Carolina is the only state in the nation with no budget.

The NCEOB Primary Challenger

Wake County Math Teacher Michele Joyner-Dinwiddie was until recently a registered Democrat, but for purposes of this primary she's a liberal Republican focused on fully funding school maintenance and reinstating salary incentives for teachers who earn more advanced degrees.

She has started a Facebook group but she has no website nor other campaign infrastructure. She's on LinkedIn as Michele Joyner

The Democrat

Evonne S. Hopkins is a North Carolina Board Certified Family Law Specialist with some 20 years experience and the founder of the "boutique" Raleigh Law Center specializing in family law. She is married with two children. She earned joint JD/MBA degrees from the University of San Francisco in 2003 and a Bachelor of Arts (Honors) in philosophy from Rollins College in 1998. She volunteers with “The Child’s Advocate,” a project of Legal Aid, representing children in high conflict custody cases, work that earned her Legal Aid’s 2023 Pro Bono Hero Award.

Hopkins appears to be well set up to both raise money and to use it effectively in getting boots on the ground to do door-knocking. Attorney General Jeff Jackson added his weight to her campaign launch way back last April.

Hopkins looks strong. In a Blue Wave year, her contrast to Mike Schietzelt's anti-abortion intellectualism should count for plenty.

House District 35: Lawyer Vs. Lawyer

 

The shape of House Dist. 35 is a tale of political revenge (hattip Bryan Anderson). Terence Everitt, a 2018 blue-wave Democratic star held on to this seat through two reelections, through 2022, but in the process of doing his job, he couldn't help noticing the almost theatrical corruption of Speaker Tim Moore, so he wrote the Wake D.A., suggesting that "a probe" of Speaker Moore seemed more than called for. The Wake D.A., Lorrin Freeman, declined to take that up. So for Everett's trouble, Speaker Moore moved his office without warning to cramped space in the basement. Republicans weren't done punishing him. Destin Hall and his gnomes in the House Redistricting Committee gerrymandered Everett's district from what had been D+5 to R+5. Dave's Redistricting scores the district as 51.8% Republican. Civitas makes it R+3.) In frustration, Everett opted this year to run for an overlapping Senate seat, so Dist. 35 is an open grab for someone who brings energy and a persistent ground game. 

(With the sudden change at the top of the Democratic ticket, I predict renewed and possibly stunning energy in the grassroots for the Democrat.)

Evonne Hopkins, Democrat

"Evonne S. Hopkins is a North Carolina Board Certified Family Law Specialist and Certified Parent Coordinator licensed to practice in North Carolina, California, and the District of Columbia. Evonne earned joint JD/MBA degrees from the University of San Francisco in 2003 and a Bachelor of Arts (Honors) in Philosophy from Rollins College in 1998. She's got two decades of legal experience behind her, and is chief in her own legal business, the Raleigh Law Center, "a boutique firm that can help you and your family resolve complex family law issues. We have proven success record in all aspects of family law including child custody & support, alimony, division of marital assets and debts, domestic violence restraining orders, separation & prenuptial agreements. We also offer wills, trusts and estate planning" (Raleigh Law Center website). 

I particularly grooved on this assessment of Hopkins from that same website:

Never one to shy away from conflict, Evonne is known for her straightforward honest style, powerful advocacy and is considered a formidable opponent.

Gov. Cooper came to her kickoff event. She's been pretty good at fundraising, quickly lapping her Republican opponent, though he's been bestowed some $453,000 for TV by the Republican House caucus. Hopkins has done some convassing, and if she's not shy, there needs to be more video of her.

Mike Schietzelt, Republican

Schietzelt and some of his boys

Schietzelt is also an attorney (Duke Law) and an ex-Marine. The Marine part opens up a very interesting life story I quote at length:

As a young adult, Mike toured the world as a professional musician, performing in amusement parks and on cruise ships. In 2011, he enlisted in the U.S. Marine Corps as a member of “The Commandant’s Own” United States Marine Drum and Bugle Corps. While stationed in Washington, D.C, Mike represented the Marine Corps before many of the highest ranking civilian and military officials in America, and he sounded Taps for military funerals at Arlington National Cemetery.

Random facts: He clerked for then-N.C. Supreme Court Chief Justice Mark Martin during the 2018-19 term. He's lobbied at the General Assembly for changes to criminal law (what changes, not explained), and is currently a civil litigation attorney with Michael Best & Friedrich LLP, a quite large firm with multiple offices.

I don't find a whiff of MAGA or trumpism in his social media. He seems attractively moderate, good for this north Wake district. He has four sons and looks to be a swell dad and family man, which also cannot hurt since his opponent might be a single woman.

Schietzelt's greatest liability may be his name, which has to go on a yardsign. He's lagged behind Hopkins in fundraising, but to the rescue comes the NC House Republican caucus, who announced they were funneling $453,000 into Schietzelt's TV budget.