House Dist. 37 Features What Ought To Be an Endangered Republican

 

Civitas rates NC House District 37, a big chunk of far southeastern Wake County -- R+3. Dave's Redistricting sez 45.4% Democrat, 51.9% Republican, with 2.6 Independent. Those numbers alone suggest that a Democratic insurgent will need to do aggressive voter registration and reach out to the Unaffiliated.

Erin Paré, Republican incumbent

Paré, according to Bryan Anderson, "is one of her party's most effective messengers and has become somewhat of a rising star in conservative circles. Through [gerrymandering], the GOP gave her added protection, moving her from a Trump +3 district to a Trump + 7."

She's only been in Raleigh since the election of 2020, when she beat Sydney Batch by only .06% of the vote. The Libertarian candidate took 3.15% in 2020, which was also determinative for Batch's loss. Paré did better in her reelection in 2022, winning comfortably with almost 53%.

In August 2023 she made an announcement that she would be running for Congress in Dist. 13, and she was putting some effort into it:

In her video campaign announcement, which includes images from protests and riots, Paré says she is “everything the far left fears the most” and calls herself a “conservative wife, mother and business owner.” A news release said Paré was putting $400,000 of her own money into the campaign as it begins. (AP)

But in November 2023, she backed out of the Congressional race. Said nevermind, I'm running for my House seat instead.

In a past life, she was a military spouse with a career military husband for 12 years, then did a 7-year stint on Capitol Hill as a lobbyist for something called the Regulatory Improvement Council, which "advocated for the improved use of transparency, sound science, and cost-benefit analysis in the federal regulatory decision-making process." She looks Junior League and clearly appeals to upscale Republican women who don't cotton to Trump. You certainly don't find any sign of Trump or of trumpism on her Facebook and Twitter feeds. She may be one of those suburban women who'll secretly go for Kamala Harris.

Safiyah Jackson, Democrat

She's been endorsed by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and by Emily's List. Her Twitter feed stopped operating after March. She's doing more on Facebook, posting frequent video talking-head spots about her campaign.

I like her bluntness: "Safiyah is the granddaughter of a domestic worker and the daughter of middle-class parents. Raised in a close-knit church, school, neighborhood, and family environment, stable and nurturing communities have shaped her foundation."

Some 20 years ago, she left a corporate marketing and sales role with Ford Motor Company. Since then, she has focused her policy-set on "early childhood education" and the support that young families, often single-parent, need from institutions including government.

Her linked-in page says this about her: "Champion for the quality of life for infants and toddlers: Systems, Strategy, Policy, Implementation, Evaluation, and Communication." But what does she do? According to NewPolitics.org, "she serves as Chief Strategy Officer with The North Carolina Partnership for Children, a nonprofit that supports a network of early childhood organizations (The Smart Start network)." She's clearly sharp and can talk like a master of the class, and she's clearly "professional" enough for the Republican women of House District 37.

Oppo Research Coming for Democrats

 

For hardcore politicos, the ones especially with a disturbingly microscopic interest in North Carolina politics, Marshall Terry's interview with Bryan Anderson about the skill and practice of "opposition research" is a really informative read. It was done for WFAE, Charlotte's NPR radio station. Anderson previously wrote a piece for The Assembly, "Oppo Man," about Charles Hellwig, a self-described "right wing nut" who wants the most conservative person to win any race he signs on to help. Hellwig was the operative who exposed Cal Cunningham's sexual adventures before the 2020 election. He's very proud of it.

So WFAE interviewer Anderson got Hellwig to spill beans on who Hellwig is currently assisting, or planning to assist, through the 2024 elections:

Erin Pare

*Erin Paré, Republican House member from Wake County (Dist. 37), the last surviving Republican to represent any Wake County district in either House or Senate. She beat Democrat Sydney Batch in 2020 and held on to the seat in 2022 by a healthy 3 points. According to press accounts, she was very active on shaping the new anti-abortion laws and was one of the "moderate" Republican women who kept the ban to 12 weeks rather than 6. She has just announced her candidacy for the U.S. Congress, for CD13, the seat currently occupied by Wiley Nickel. She came out of the gate sounding very much like the darling of a right-wing nut: "I won’t stand by while radical liberals ruin our economy, allow crime to run rampant on our streets, and indoctrinate our children. I have stood up to the woke mob here in NC and I’ll do the same in Washington! Join us - let's stop the radical Left!" So now Charles Hellwig will be digging into Wiley Nickel like a mealworm.

*Jon Hardister, who's giving up his House seat (Dist. 59) (and a powerful role as chief Republican whip) to run in 2024 for labor commissioner. He's considered a dishonest snake for being the prime operative in the budget veto override ambush pulled off by Speaker Tim Moore early on the morning of September 11, 2019. The Democrat so far in the race for Labor Commissioner: Braxton Winston II, a Charlotte city councilman. He'll no doubt present a colorful target for Hellwig's oppo research.

*Fred Von Canon, a veteran also-ran who's now signing on for a Congressional race in CD1. He ran twice unsuccessfully against Terence Everitt for the District 35 House seat. Before Von Canon can face incumbent Democrat Donald Davis in November, he must get through a possibly nasty primary with Sandy Smith, a Republican businesswoman from eastern North Carolina. She's the MAGA flamethrower who has lost a CD1 race twice in 2020 and 2022. You might expect a man like Hellwig to gravitate to the much more conservative Smith, but the other part of his druthers in a Republican candidate -- the most conservative -- is the kicker, "who can conceiveably win." Hellwig apparently doesn't think Sandy Smith can beat Don Davis.

 

A Difficult Wake County District To Flip Blue

 

Erin Pare

The Wake County House District 37 presents a tangled possibility for a red-to-blue flip this year. The Republican incumbent, Erin Pare, won the seat in 2020 by ousting Democrat Sydney Batch, one of the Blue Wave stars of 2018. Pare is now up against a Democratic woman, Christine Kelly, who's an accomplished professional but also a lightning rod for controversy in the burgeoning suburban town of Holly Springs, which is about 20 miles southwest of Raleigh. Kelly has made some enemies, which could be fatal to her chances to take the seat.

It's risky to unpack the issues and personalities in town battles, especially battles over growth and development, when you don't live there or anywhere near there, but I certainly recognize the eruptive pressures that build when a growing town appears to grow too fast and with too little control. Christine Kelly was at the center of a battle over growth in Holly Springs, and from what I can divine from newspaper accounts, I would probably have been on her side in the controversy, complaining about a city council that made too many decisions without adequate citizen participation. 

Kelly filed an official ethics complaint against members of the Holly Springs Town Council. There's video of Kelly arguing with those town council members. I don't know enough of the background to judge the accuracy of anything, but I was impressed that she was a calm and reasonable voice, while the town council members sparring with her come off as intolerant, defensive, and arrogant. I've also listened to Kelly's appearance on the Holly Springs Deep Dive podcast from last October. She comes across as reasoned and reasonable and as "Canadian nice," because she was born in Canada and only became an American citizen less than a decade ago.

Christine Kelly

Her activism for slower growth and more planning, for more local government transparency, led her to run for Holly Spring Town Council in 2017. She was top vote-getter. But last fall, she attempted to move up to mayor and was soundly defeated, which suggests that her activism wasn't wearing well with the voters.

In the May primary against two other Democratic candidates, Kelly edged out runner-up Elizabeth Parent by only 64 votes, and so much now depends on unifying the Democratic Party, getting volunteers on the ground, and driving turn-out. I wish I felt better about Christine Kelly's chances.