There've been plenty of losses since 1990, both in this county and in statewide races we worked on. So, duh! I certainly learned the foolishness of predicting victory prematurely, though after 30+ years in political organizing, I've come to appreciate the "feel" of an election contest as E-Day approaches.
Right now, and at the most crucial moment, things feel right. Things feel aligned. God's in his Heaven... (I'm not going to finish that famous line from Robert Browning*, because I'm not actually insane.)
I saw numbers this morning from Buncombe County, probably the most devastated real estate in North Carolina from the Helene floods, but yet Democratic performance is UP there over 2020, while Republican performance is down by over 7%. It's a different story in Watauga, granted, with Republicans currently outpolling Democrats by some 545 votes, but the Unaffiliated vote has both parties beat by over 11,000. That makes me feel good, because the vast majority of those Unaffiliated are under the age of 25, and women are out-voting men in Watauga by 2,720.
Then comes the Iowa poll (and I know, I know -- I don't like polls, especially when they make me nervous in a bad way) which shows Kamala Harris leading Donald J. Trump by 3 points, a shift from 2020 of some 11 points. Trump took Iowa in 2020 by +8. That's a huge shift. Mind-blowing in fact. The Economist applied some math, and because of the famed accuracy of Selzer Polling, they (just for giggles) applied that shift of attitude to other states and came up with a possible Harris/Walz landslide of 416 electoral votes. (Selzer Polling is the outfit behind the final Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa. Selzer is "a high-quality pollster. It is rated as one of the best in the country by FiveThirtyEight, which tracks polling accuracy. The Selzer Poll is recognised for its success projecting the Iowa caucus.")
Maybe my clincher for optimism is the spirit of the volunteer corps that has arisen against the prospect of another Trump presidency, an absolute and honest-to-gawd coalition of some unlikely allies and the most dedicated, persistent cohort of enthusiastic volunteers we've seen since 2008. It's real, this surge of psychic energy, this will to act, to do something, to stop a real and dangerous wrong.
*The year's at the spring,
And day's at the morn;
Morning's at seven;
The hill-side's dew-pearl'd;
The lark's on the wing;
The snail's on the thorn;
God's in His heaven,
All's right with the world!
2 comments:
Did you see SNL last night? Brilliant. Not only a cameo by Kamala but Tim Caine too. Not to mention Jim Gaffigan, Dana Carvey, and Adam Samberg. Classic.
Even if Trump doesn't win I think MAGA will steal this election using violence.
I also expect Trump will be disposed shortly much as Warren G. Harding in 1923. So we get the updated version of Calvin Coolidge, JD Vance. JD is an employee of Peter Thiel, age 57, the lucky founder of PayPal and Palantir, and a former booster of Facebook, a Right-Libertatian and non-citizen (New Zealand and Germany). Mr. Thiel, and probably Mr. Vance, are Ayn Rand devotees and believers in Mimetics- that people are just "monkey see-monkey dos", easily manipulated. Here (from Wikipedia) is the core belief of Memetics:
"The scapegoat mechanism has one requirement for it to be effective in restoring the peace; all participants in the removal of the scapegoat must genuinely believe that he is guilty. It is also essential that the scapegoat cannot strike back afterwards, so it is common for him to be killed. Once he is gone, peace will quickly be restored, further confirming his "guilt". However, the scapegoat is chosen arbitrarily. The resulting peace is borne from violence, and this form of violence controlling violence has existed since the beginning of civilizations."
If scapegoats can also be human categories we can anticipate the result.
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