How Big the Blue Wave in the US Senate 2020?

We're about to have some political accountability delivered to the party holding the White House and strangling the Senate. Maybe a ton of accountability for the incompetence and malfeasance that allowed the coronavirus pandemic to kill 200K (and still climbing).

Here's the list of vulnerable, incumbent Republican senators who could, according to polling and the surge of new voters who haven't always voted in the past, lose their seats on November 3rd. All of their losing would constitute a Democratic blow-out and give the Dems at least a 57-43 advantage.

They're listed here in the order of their vulnerability:

Arizona -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally is well behind her Democratic rival, Mark Kelly, whom we headlined here back in July of this year. Cook's moved the race to "Lean Democrat."

Colorado -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Cory Gardner felt the earth move (not in a good way) when Cook moved this race to "Lean Democrat." The Democrat in question, former Governor John Hickenlooper, seems to have this sewn up. (We profiled him back in January of 2019.)

Maine -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins has been pretty consistently trailing her Democratic rival Sara Gideon (pictured on the right). (We profiled her back before she won the Democratic primary.) Cook's rates the race a "Toss Up."

North Carolina -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has been in a polling hole all year, with Democrat Cal Cunningham coming on strong and raising big money. We've profiled Cunningham many times, going back to late November 2018; June of 2019; September 2019 ("The Danger of Democratic McCreadyism"); and June 2020. Then came the trysting texts with a woman not his wife indicating a lapse of judgment. So who the hell knows where this race stands at the moment? Prior to the texting scandal, Cook's rated the race a "Toss Up."

Montana -- Republican incumbent Sen. Steve Daines is up against Democratic Governor Steve Bullock (really up against it!) in a race that moved to "Toss Up" as soon as Bullock declared his candidacy (on the last filing day). I haven't profiled Bullock at all, but he's a "moderate."

Iowa -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst woke up one morning and discovered that she's in real peril from the surging campaign of Democrat Theresa Greenfield (whom we profiled first in August 2019 because of her excellent introductory video; then a second time this past June). Cook's rates it "Toss Up."

Georgia -- Surprisingly, incumbent Republican Sen. David "Sonny" Perdue has also found himself in a "Toss Up" with Democrat Jon Ossoff, in whom I have little faith after he lost the special election for a Georgia US House seat in 2017. Ossoff sometimes comes off like a candidate created in a laboratory. 

Georgia -- Georgia has the unique distinction of being primed to replace both of their incumbent Republican senators. This second race is really a "jungle primary" to replace the retired Johnny Isakson. The run-off between the two top finishers on November 3rd will take place on January 5, 2021. Incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler (appointed by the governor to fill out Isakson's term) has both a strong Republican rival in Congressman Doug Collins and a credible Democratic challenger in Rev. Raphael Warnock, whom we profiled on August 20th. Almost unbelieveably (it's freakin' Georgia, y'all!), Warnock has been leading both Republicans in some polling. Cook's rates the race "Lean Republican," though we're willing to believe in miracles.

South Carolina -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey O. Graham is having his own fright-night, threatened by another black candidate, Democrat Jaime Harrison (whom we profiled here). Cook moved the race from "Of Course Lindsey Graham Will Win Reelection" to "Lean Republican," to show just how squishy Graham's support has become. He won't be missed.

Kansas -- It's an open seat following the retirement of Republican Sen. Pat Roberts. Democrat Barbara Bollier (who was a registered Republican until December 2018) is facing Republican Roger Marshall. Looks like the polling has veered all over the place, so who knows? Cook's rates it "Lean Republican." But there have been signs (the flipping of CD 3 by Democrat Sharice Davids in 2018) that previously set-in-Republican-concrete Kansas is loosening up.

Alaska -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is being challenged not by a Democrat but by an independent, orthopedic surgeon Al Gross, who'd likely caucus with the Democrats. The most recent polling I've seen has Sullivan at 46% and Gross at 45%, and Alaska has past history of electing independents over nominal Republicans (Lisa Murkowski). Cook's still has the race at "Likely Republican."

Texas -- Incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn was once upon a time considered pretty vulnerable to a strong Democratic candidate in a watershed year like 2020 is likely to be, but is Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar that candidate? Dunno. I loved her fighting spirit when she ran for the US House against an entrenched Republican incumbent in 2018, but she went through a debilitating Democratic primary to cement her spot in this fight, and I'm hearing a lot of poor-mouthing from friends in Texas. Cook's rates it "Likely Republican," which seems about right.

Mississippi -- Incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith suddenly has a race on her hands from Democrat Mike Espy, who has surged in recent polling to 40% to Hyde-Smith's 41% (still a lot of undecideds). Espy was formerly Mississippi's first black congressman since Reconstruction and Secretary of Agriculture under President Bill Clinton. He is currently and since 2008 an attorney with the mega-firm Morgan and Morgan in Jackson, Miss., and also runs his own consulting firm specializing in governmental relations, rural development, food and nutrition, and international agricultural development issues. Cook's is not sanguine about Espy's chances; they rate it "Solid Republican." But would it not be something beyond imagining if Black Democrats in Georgia (Warnock), South Carolina (Harrison), and Mississippi (Espy) took out Republican incumbents in a truly massive Blue Wave?

 

Below: Mike Espy in Mississippi. Does he really have a shot at taking out an incumbent Republican senator: 

Oh, For Pete's Sake, Cal!

 

The "new right" website National File got hold of a text chain between Senate candidate Cal Cunningham and a married woman in California with whom he's been having some sort of consensual affair, and they headlined it -- "EXCLUSIVE" -- as though it was Bill-Clinton-level sex. The News and Observer amplified that news this morning. It's not Bill-Clinton-level. It's more like high school confidential. 

But ... shittal! The stupidity frosts my berries. And as a politico, I don't want to see this kind of personal, private crap this close to an election, especially one that Cal is supposed to win. May still win, because after all ... so what? Consensual, private. Yes, a breach of trust and some ripe dumb shit, as Cal the candidate immediately copped to in a press statement last night: 

“I have hurt my family, disappointed my friends, and am deeply sorry. The first step in repairing those relationships is taking complete responsibility, which I do.”

So ... facepalm time, and a nagging dread of voter backlash. What are the odds on Cal's still winning the Senate seat? Depends on whether suburban women decide to make an example of him. He betrayed his wife. But his embarrassing text messages aren't comparable to a Bill Clinton sexcapade, or even a Newt Gingrich affair. Clinton smelled of predation, Gingrich of neediness. As far as Cal's adultery, it looks more like coltish hormones set at liberty in a pasture where other coltish hormones also roam. Her texts are even more romantically aggressive. So it was mutual lust. Is lust a killing offense?

Betrayal is not the last and only word about Cal Cunningham. He has other solid human qualities. Also strategic political importance. His ascent as a 2020 candidate, along with the math of the US Senate, makes him an essential player in the restoration of the Republic. This scandal does not IMO negate the key strategery of his vote in the Senate. Which means, O my brethren, he is weighed in the balance and found adequate. 

Full disclosure: I contributed to his campaign, and I've already voted for him and would do so again. 

We Know "Responsible" When We See It

 

Kevin Siers, Charlotte Observer.

Would You Take a Hurried-Up Trump Vaccine?

 

Sen. Thom Tillis and Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham faced each other last night in the first of three scheduled debates. This morning, the News and Observer chose to headline Cunningham's expressed "hesitance" about taking a COVID-19 vaccine that was rushed through trials to serve the politics of a lying liar. Tillis said that Cunningham's suspicion that politics was trumping science was "irresponsible."

Irresponsible? It seems responsible in the extreme to be suspicious of having something injected into our bodies that hasn't been thoroughly tested and vetted and certified by public health professionals as not only safe but also effective for the intended purpose.

Right now this minute, Trump has installed a man cheerleading for armed rebellion into a key communications post at the Centers for Disease Control -- Michael Caputo, a close ally of convicted liar Roger Stone, "made outlandish and false accusations on Sunday that career government scientists were engaging in 'sedition' in their handling of the pandemic and that left-wing hit squads were preparing for armed insurrection after the election."

Sedition. That's a Trumpian set-up if I've ever seen one (and I've seen plenty). Any scientist who subsequently suggests that Trump's hurried-up vaccine is not safe, not effective, will be branded a traitor to the president. You can see that coming, right?

Cal Cunningham's hesitance is just good sense. Tillis's shock is more toadying to a strong man he's profoundly afraid of.

The Way the Pendulum Swings in North Carolina

 

Am I going to read an article titled "Suburban Women Hold the Balance of Power in the Swingiest of Swing States" (meaning, yes, North Carolina)? You bet I am!

It opens with this profile of "a decisive voter," meaning a voter who hasn't decided yet but whose vote, once they do decide, will be decisive: 

She’s white, college-educated, unaffiliated and moved to a close-in suburb of Charlotte or Raleigh in the last decade or two — and as Election Day looms, she’s still making up her mind.

Some vital stats:

...of the 7,040,308 registered voters as of last month, 36 percent are Democrats and 30 percent are Republicans, but an ascendant 33 percent are unaffiliated — the fastest-growing group, clustered in the fastest-growing suburbs. And of that 33 percent, [Paul] Shumaker, a Tillis consultant, wrote in a recent memo to donors, 30 percent are “behavioral Republicans,” 30 percent are “behavioral Democrats,” and the remaining 40 percent are “pure swing voters.” These, both sides agree, are the voters that are most up for grabs — in the places that are most up for grabs.

One of those places most up for grabs? According to US Senate candidate Cal Cunningham, it's definitely “the urban ring around Charlotte.” Said Cal, “That is going to decide probably the presidential race and possibly the outcome of the United States Senate. And it’s ground zero for a marquee governor’s race.”

Good to know. We've been following several General Assembly races in Cabarrus County, part of that "urban ring around Charlotte," and we like the image of a confluence of irresistible forces there.

Republican operatives are thinking Trump can scare those suburban women into voting for him because antifa! ... BLM! ... invasive species threatening the suburbs! Democratic operatives are convinced that suburban women are not idiots -- they know who's been stirring the trouble and for what ends.

Did Jesse Helms Put a Curse on His Senate Seat When He Left It?

Cal Cunningham looks to be doing to incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis what Thom Tillis did to Kay Hagan in 2014. Tillis beat Hagan by 45,608 votes out of 2,915,281 total votes cast.

Kay Hagan made Senator Elizabeth Dole a one-termer in 2008, beating her by a much wider margin, some 361,801 votes. Elizabeth Dole had easily taken the open seat in 2002 following the retirement of Sen. Jesse Helms.

It's almost like ole Jesse cursed the seat or something, for it's produced a line of one-term senators ever since he left it.

We expect Thom Tillis to fall to that curse, come November, and we also expect Cal Cunningham to break that curse once he's our new senator from North Carolina.

Un-Trumping North Carolina: Democrat Cal Cunningham for US Senate

We've been knowing Cal Cunningham for a decade, ever since he emerged to challenge Elaine Marshall in the US Senate Democratic primary in 2010, not a particularly good year to be a rising Democratic Party star, but we were impressed with Cal. We couldn't support him in that primary because we were pledged to Elaine Marshall, but we thought he had a bright and shining future in North Carolina politics. Took a decade, but he finally came back to give Thom Tillis a good case of flop sweat in 2020.

Tillis won the seat in 2014 by less than 2 percentage points, and he hasn't done much to improve his standing with the voters. Now he's indelibly labeled a Trump lickspittle who attempted a couple of times to look like an independent and ended up just looking weak and confused. A survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling released recently showed his approval at just 26 percent (The Hill).

He's being propped up by Republican "super PACs." Reuters reported than at least $47.4 million is flowing into North Carolina already, but that counts also what Cunningham is getting from Democratic PACs, which is a lot. Both the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball now rate the race a toss-up, which probably means if North Carolina flips to Biden, Tillis is toast.

How nervous is Tillis? So nervous he's robo-calling our landline multiple times, like he thinks he's going to persuade a Democrat as blue as this one to come to his aid? Three debates with Cunningham have been set, but Tillis is actually pressing for even more -- a sign that he knows he's losing: "Usually it’s challengers who press incumbents to debate, hoping for the free exposure of a televised encounter" (Jim Morrill, Charlotte Observer).

Cal has received some criticism for appearing too moderate for the times, partly because his primary opponent Erica Smith was such a progressive bomb-thrower. Before he fully fleshed out his policy positions on his website, I was one of those critical voices last September because I was afraid Cal was slipping into "McCreadyism." I don't worry about that any more: "...many of the candidates in swing states are more liberal than their counterparts just a decade ago. Every Senate candidate in a major race, from Mark Kelly in Arizona to Cal Cunningham in North Carolina, supports a public option to compete with private health insurance plans" (Politico).

Cal has to be careful about corporate money. He has not taken money from corporate PACs, but he has received money from business executives and PACs that receive money from corporations (Politifact). That's maybe not concerning on the face of it, unless he starts trimming his policy positions to suit those donors. Then he'll catch hell.

Cal's launch video was strong and well done. You can watch it on his website. Below is his short victory speech after winning the March primary:

There Is No Cure for True Belief

In politics I try to remain a pessimist. Because I know all too well about late frosts. To become a "true believer" ends often -- not inevitably, but sometimes -- in disillusion, depression, angry letters that vow never to participate in any political party again, and the ultimate Thelma and Louise barrel-roll into the Grand Canyon: "I'm not even gonna vote this year!" (Bros, I'm looking at you.)

I'm always -- full transparency here --  a true believer, by the way. If I don't believe, how am I going to work 24/7 for somebody's election? If I don't believe somebody's our best hope? I dropped college classes to "come clean for Gene," and became a fired-up field organizer for the Eugene McCarthy presidential campaign of 1968. I was given a region of precincts in Salt Lake City to canvass and recruit McCarthy delegates in precinct meetings. I lost every precinct.

That whole election year both enflamed me and just about snuffed me out. McCarthy put an end to LBJ, then lost to Kennedy, who died by assassination, and Nixon squeaks by Humphrey. I didn't stand up again in political activism until the very late-80s. I went all in for the senatorial campaign of Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt in 1990. I thought he would beat Jesse Helms, but he lost by six points, and I had to claw my way out of deep depression after that. The 1990s and 2000s often proved a death march for Democrats in North Carolina. We won some and we lost some, but the slide was definitely toward the Right -- North Carolina politics were listing to starboard like the torpedoed Lusitania, and you had to be over-caffeinated to keep organizing through it all.

Things changed on my enthusiasm meter during the Howard Dean campaign in 2004, the local sweep by Democrats in 2006, and the Barack Obama campaign of 2007-08.

Candidates I'm lukewarm about ... don't ask me to bake a cake. Oh, I'll work just as hard, but it'll be for "the ticket," because even when the top name(s) on the ballot don't inspire, a Democrat in office is generally a better thing than a Republican in office. Generally.

True believer? More a skeptic these days, not to mention a fatalist. I expect the worse -- got it big time in 2016 -- but I'm also delighted by Democratic courage when I see it. And I still see it in enough people, in enough candidates to keep me active, even though at my advanced age I don't do door-knocking any more (knees) and have become too deaf for phonebanks. I can write checks. I can howl at the moon. I can sit at a table and scheme.

All of the above by way of cautioning guardedness of belief when you read these opening graphs of a story in today's WashPost ("Republicans grow nervous about losing the Senate amid worries over Trump's handling of the pandemic"):

Republicans are increasingly nervous they could lose control of the Senate this fall as a potent combination of a cratering economy, President Trump’s handling of the pandemic and rising enthusiasm among Democratic voters dims their electoral prospects.

Cal Cunningham

In recent weeks, GOP senators have been forced into a difficult political dance as polling shifts in favor of Democrats: touting their own response to the coronavirus outbreak without overtly distancing themselves from a president whose management of the crisis is under intense scrutiny but who still holds significant sway with Republican voters.

“It is a bleak picture right now all across the map, to be honest with you,” said one Republican strategist closely involved in Senate races who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss concerns within the party. “This whole conversation is a referendum on Trump, and that is a bad place for Republicans to be. But it’s also not a forever place.”

"Republicans have privately become alarmed" at the polling numbers for some of their Senate incumbents, particularly Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Democrat Cal Cunningham outraised him in the first quarter of 2020 and has come on strong as a young, progressive alternative to the waffling and wobbling study in ineptitude that is Thom Tillis.

I feel my feet moving under me. Damn the isolation and social distance!

Moscow Mitch's Money Is Meddling in the NC Democratic Senatorial Primary

Jim Morrill and Brian Murphy reported in Friday's News Observer:

A group tied to the Republican U.S. Senate leader is behind the mysterious super PAC that has poured millions into TV ads for North Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Erica Smith. 

The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC tied to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, gave nearly $3 million to the Faith and Power PAC, according to new reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. It is the PAC’s lone contributor. 

Faith and Power has spent $3 million on TV ads and mailers in support of Smith, who has lagged in her own fundraising. The PAC’s recent TV ads attack her main rival, Cal Cunningham, from the left. The newest ad says he won’t stand up to the NRA or for the LGBTQ community in addition to saying he won’t vote for Medicare for All or the Green New Deal.

We are clear that Mitch McConnell and those allied with him do not think that Erica Smith should be elected. They do not support her. They're using deceptive advertising to force Cunningham to bleed money pointing out the deception.

The Elections of March: Dark Money Enters the Democratic Senate Primary

Erica Smith

Reporting in The Hill: "Mystery group backs outsider Democrat challenging Tillis in North Carolina."

The mystery group: Something calling itself Faith and Power PAC, which "sprang into existence only last week."

The "outsider Democrat" benefitting from the PAC's money: NC State Senator Erica Smith (NCS3), who in the latest Public Policy Polling is drawing 12% support to Cal Cunningham's 22% and who has loudly expressed her disgust with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) for backing Cunningham as the most viable option instead of her.

The Hill tracks the dark money to Republican-connected organs and groups. It's not the first time that veiled outside money has tried to elevate Smith's profile: Back last August billboards went up in the state warning that Erica Smith was "TOO LIBERAL for North Carolina," a claim that Smith "was eager to use ... as evidence that she’s the most feared challenger to Republican incumbent Thom Tillis .... But [according to Nathan Gonzales in Roll Call] Republicans were targeting Smith because they believe she’s the weaker potential general election foe, not because they’re afraid of her."

The Faith and Power PAC TV ads for Smith also play up her liberal cred: “Who’s the Democrat for U.S. Senate endorsed by progressives and unions? Erica Smith. Who’s got the courage to vote for 'Medicare for All?' Erica Smith. The number one supporter of the Green New Deal? Erica Smith again. Erica Smith is one of us,” a narrator says in the ad. “Vote Democrat Erica Smith for U.S. Senate, the only proven progressive.”

The outside meddling in our Democratic senatorial primary is merely another sign of our times -- that so much dangles on threads pulled by men with lots of money.

"Stand Against Trumpism!" Democrats Should Forget About Fading to "Pabulum Moderate"

The General Elections are now a year away, and it's a time for high anxiety in both camps. I won't characterize what gives both sides the willies. You know who you are. You know what scares you.

I was reading Rachel Bitecofer's analysis* about next Tuesday's election in the state directly to the north of us: "High Stakes in Virginia General Assembly Election will Preview 2020 Presidential." Bitecofer's a numbers gal, and I generally trust people who work with numbers.

*Rachel Bitecofer has become a political prognosticator to rival Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight. Bitecofer is assistant director of the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia. In 2018 she predicted a 42-seat "blue wave" in the US House. Dems took 40 seats. No one else came close to her accuracy, including Nate Silver. She regularly offers opinions on Twitter.

Bitecofer saw the 2017 Virginia Blue Wave coming. That localized surge heralded the 2018 Blue Wave in the rest of the country. In Virginia in 2017, Democrats picked up some 15 seats in the state House and a handful in the Senate, putting them within single digits of having control of both chambers. Some Trump-lite Republican incumbents immediately went into a political crouch. A few -- enough as it turned out -- flinched on health care, broke ranks to join Democrats in passing an expansion of Medicaid. Many another suburban Republican temporarily forgot the name Trump and showed some bland interest in gun reform. Then what followed immediately? The Virginia Blue Wave of 2018 flipped three US House seats and absolutely buried Senator Tim Caine's hyper-conservative opponent. Scared out of their wits, Republican candidates running up-hill races this year are suddenly going hard right to keep their troops in line. We'll see Tuesday if that tactic worked.

Bitecofer's great discovery (still undiscovered by too many Democratic candidates): It was not suburban Republicans who made the Blue Wave in 2018. It was "a whole different pool of voters" -- largely independents -- who hadn't been voting, or who only voted inconsistently, who suddenly showed up at the polls: "college-educated women; millennials and Gen Z voters; minority voters; and Independents who 'lean' left or at least don’t 'lean' right." What motivated them? "These voters, whether they know it or not, have been galvanized to the polls via negative partisanship because of the election of Donald J. Trump. Trump has shaken into action a sleeping demographic giant...."

In Virginia and elsewhere.

Bitecofer's lesson which some Democratic candidates refuse to learn: Winning over Republican voters doesn't make a wave. Winning new voters makes the wave. Bitecofer: Where Republicans voted in 2018 in huge numbers, they voted for Republicans. Democrats can't and won't win them. It's new voters that Democrats need, and you don't win new voters in the Age of Trump by going "moderate Democrat." The new voters are enraged by Trump. You harness their rage by showing you're willing to stand and fight Trumpism with progressive ideas. You strongly reassert the traditional American values that Trump has shat upon. (If only Dan McCready had believed the Bitecofer data! If only he had gone full progressive warrior, instead of pabulum moderate.)

Here's the Bitecofer revelation about 2018: "...in many districts, especially where the candidates were focusing on being moderate, the Democratic turnout still underperformed its potential, and still underperformed turnout among Republicans...." The pathetic loss in the NC-9 special election in September could have been reversed if Dan McCready had inspired more enthusiasm among non-traditional voters. That's a warning for Cal Cunningham running for US Senate next year.

Basic algebra: If the election of Trump woke a giant, the impeachment of Trump -- and his acquittal by Republican lickspittles in the Senate -- surely won't put the giant to sleep. Will it?

The substance of things already achieved is less than the evidence of things not yet seen.

The Leaning Tower of Tillis and the Danger of Democratic McCreadyism

The Cook Political Report has moved Thom Tillis's reelection prospects in North Carolina from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican."

The article includes a mention of Cal Cunningham as the Democratic frontrunner. Cunningham has gone after Tillis's record on Twitter, specifically his votes on taking Obamacare away from millions, gutting education funding, defunding Planned Parenthood, and giving the wealthiest Americans a massive tax cut. He's also been hitting Tillis on Trump's unchallenged $80 million raid on the NC military budget. Do those brief attacks represent a platform? I don't see Cunningham's political philosophy/perspectives on the burning issues of the day. Don't see those anywhere I search.

I sense a certain McCreadyism in Cunningham's unwillingness to embrace progressive issues, and that worries me. Dan McCready in the NC-9 special election a few days ago resolutely eschewed coming out strongly for the issues that most motivate progressive voters. He rather played a Rorschach ink blot Democrat: You were free to read into his pleasant smile and doe eyes whatever policy positions you wished to believe that he believed in, and just go vote, dammit. There was no real policy content there to inspire confidence and spark enthusiasm. And how did that work for McCready?

Judging from Cal Cunningham's website, I'm afraid he's headed down the same strategic path: Be as vague as possible on key issues and hope your pleasing personality will be enough. I don't think it's enough. Not enough for young voters, of which North Carolina is amply supplied, and not enough for old policy warriors like me.

I want Cunningham to win. I want him to sharpen his message and stand up strong. It'll help him raise money, if nothing else.

When Political Billboards Get Too Clever By Half

NC State Senator Erica D. Smith (Dist. 3 in the lowlands), one of at least three declared Democratic candidates who'll be in the 2020 primary to take on incumbent Republican US Senator Thom Tillis, is trying to make campaign hay ($$) out of this billboard that recently went up in Raleigh.

It's a curious message, psychologically elevating Smith to frontrunner status when she is a distant challenger to frontrunner Cal Cunningham, who has raised almost 3-quarters of a mil to her $85,000. Turns out that this billboard -- and several others just like it that are popping up in other states -- is a psychological ploy to give a boost to a Democratic candidate that the Republicans would prefer to run against.

According to Nathan L. Gonzales in Roll Call, "Smith was eager to use the billboard as evidence that she’s the most feared challenger to Republican incumbent Thom Tillis .... But Republicans were targeting Smith because they believe she’s the weaker potential general election foe, not because they’re afraid of her." Ouch.

And she took the bait, bragging about her fearsomeness on her Twitter feed.

'Course, when Cal Cunningham wins the primary, they'll use that same billboard message against him. Because that's as far as their imagination goes.

Eric Mansfield Enters US Senate Race

Fayetteville medical doctor Eric Mansfield has announced his bid for the US Senate seat occupied currently by Sen. Thom Tillis, just one day after Cal Cunningham also announced.

Mansfield was elected to the NC Senate (District 21) in 2010 and served just one term. Before that term ended he opted to run for lieutenant governor in 2012, but lost the primary to Linda Coleman that year. I voted for Mansfield in that primary (and Coleman went on to lose to Dan Forest).

In a YouTube video announcing his candidacy, Mansfield talks about a near-death experience he had in 2018 when his heart stopped while he was driving home from a workout. His car crashed but he survived intact, and he says he was given a second chance.

To recap others in this Democratic Senate primary: Trevor Fuller is a Mecklenburg County Commissioner, and Erica D. Smith is currently in the NC Senate. No doubt others will also be announcing runs on the Democratic side, with Tillis looking increasingly vulnerable.

Cal Cunningham Is Now in the Race for the US Senate

Cal Cunningham has been running for North Carolina lieutenant governor since last Thanksgiving. Today he announced that he's switching to run for the US Senate seat currently held by Thom Tillis.

Senator Chuck Schumer apparently had a hand in convincing him to jump into the Senate race, and with Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) support, Cunningham is instantly the frontrunner among Democrats.

Democratic Race for Lieutenant Governor Shaping Up

There are now two Democratic candidates who'll be running for NC Lt. Gov., and there'll probably be more before we get to December 2, 2019, the opening of filing for the 2020 general elections.

First, Cal Cunningham. And now Terry Van Duyn. She's currently Democratic Whip in the NC Senate, representing Buncombe County.

Too Soon To Talk About 2020 NC Elections? Oh, Why the Hell Not?

Cal Cunningham with his family

Jonathan Kappler sez that Raleigh reporter Colin Campbell has spilled the beans that Democrat Cal Cunningham is getting ready to announce his bid for Lieutenant Governor in 2018. So, with that particular cat out of the bag, we feel licensed to wade in.

Current Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, as every politico with a pulse already knows, plans to run for governor against Roy Cooper in 2020, so his office will be open for scrambling politicians everywhere.

Democrat Cal Cunningham first came to our attention in 2010, when he ran in the Democratic primary for US Senate against Sec. of State Elaine Marshall. Marshall won that primary and went on to lose to Dick Burr that November. Even though Cunningham lost the primary, he impressed many Democrats as a rising star who had a bright future.

Cunningham had been elected to the NC Senate (23rd District) in 2000, representing parts of Davidson, Rowan and Iredell counties. Redistricting that followed the 2000 Census broke up the 23rd  into three new Republican-leaning districts, and Cunningham opted not to run again in 2002 (Wikipedia).

Cunningham is a lawyer (UNC-Chapel Hill) who was commissioned in the Army Reserve, Judge Advocate General's Corps, in 2002 and has been mobilized for two active duty tours in Afghanistan and Iraq. In the Reserve, he serves with an airborne unit at Fort Bragg. He has his own law firm in Lexington, NC, and is also vice president and general counsel for WasteZero, a recycling management business that has teamed up "with more than 800 towns and cities to reduce waste, increase recycling, and generate savings for municipalities."

I discover that Cunningham already has an ActBlue donation page up and active.


Mount Airy Republican (and former mayor) Deborah Cochran is the only announced Republican so far for the Lt. Gov. seat. She announced, in fact, way back in May of this year. She's well known in Surry County because of a decades-long career as a local radio personality (WSYD-AM). She's also a  business teacher at John F. Kennedy High School in Forsyth County. And she's bound to be challenged in the Republican primary in 2020 by better-known personalities.

Footnote: Filing for the 2020 General Elections will actually open on December 2, 2019, barely a year away. And you thought I was seriously jumping the gun to talk about the 2020 campaign?

2nd Primary

Cal Cunningham lost to Elaine Marshall. No surprise.

Machine Gun Tim D'Annunzio lost to Harold Johnson. No surprise.

But Bernie Reeves lost to Bill Randall in the NC-13 Republican run-off, which was something of a surprise to those of us who read Carter Wrenn. Wrenn, who was a major synapse in Jesse Helms's brain trust, had been railing against Randall as a fake, a man who plagiarized and fluffed his resume. We knew Randall as the dude who suggested that the Deepwater Horizon disaster was planned by Barack Obama and BP. Randall was the darling of religious conservatives and tea partiers.

If Carter Wrenn represents in any way the old Republican establishment in NC, then the Tea Party defeated the Republican establishment yesterday in giving Bill Randall the nod to go up against incumbent Congressman Brad Miller in November.

Fritter Fest

Thank Gawd it's over today, this monumental waste of time, energy, and money.

oh ouch

The very sharp Laura Leslie of North Carolina Public Radio and Isaac Hunter's Tavern was particularly pointed late last night following the Elaine Marshall/Cal Cunningham senatorial candidate debate on WRAL:

The only thing I learned from tonight's Dem Senate debate is that neither candidate is ready for prime time yet.