I'm Optimistic

 

Pam and I have been working political campaigns full-time since 1990 -- the first Harvey Gantt insurgency against Sen. Jesse Helms. I was a political fetus in 1990, so I believed Harvey was going to win because of what was happening in Watauga. (Our winning margin for Harvey turned out that year to be 1,000+ votes.) But Gantt still lost statewide, and I was caught completely unprepared for loss. I hibernated in a dark place for days and thought I'd never get involved in a political campaign again.

But the bite of the political bug is deep and fairly incurable. We were back in 1991, working municipal races, and then we continued every year afterward, often at a fever pitch that never let up. County commission campaigns, Sheriff campaigns, Congressional campaigns, everything campaigns.

There've been plenty of losses since 1990, both in this county and in statewide races we worked on. So, duh! I certainly learned the foolishness of predicting victory prematurely, though after 30+ years in political organizing, I've come to appreciate the "feel" of an election contest as E-Day approaches.

Right now, and at the most crucial moment, things feel right. Things feel aligned. God's in his Heaven... (I'm not going to finish that famous line from Robert Browning*, because I'm not actually insane.)

I saw numbers this morning from Buncombe County, probably the most devastated real estate in North Carolina from the Helene floods, but yet Democratic performance is UP there over 2020, while Republican performance is down by over 7%. It's a different story in Watauga, granted, with Republicans currently outpolling Democrats by some 545 votes, but the Unaffiliated vote has both parties beat by over 11,000. That makes me feel good, because the vast majority of those Unaffiliated are under the age of 25, and women are out-voting men in Watauga by 2,720.

Then comes the Iowa poll (and I know, I know -- I don't like polls, especially when they make me nervous in a bad way) which shows Kamala Harris leading Donald J. Trump by 3 points, a shift from 2020 of some 11 points. Trump took Iowa in 2020 by +8. That's a huge shift. Mind-blowing in fact. The Economist applied some math, and because of the famed accuracy of Selzer Polling, they (just for giggles) applied that shift of attitude to other states and came up with a possible Harris/Walz landslide of 416 electoral votes. (Selzer Polling is the outfit behind the final Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa. Selzer is "a high-quality pollster. It is rated as one of the best in the country by FiveThirtyEight, which tracks polling accuracy. The Selzer Poll is recognised for its success projecting the Iowa caucus.")

Maybe my clincher for optimism is the spirit of the volunteer corps that has arisen against the prospect of another Trump presidency, an absolute and honest-to-gawd coalition of some unlikely allies and the most dedicated, persistent cohort of enthusiastic volunteers we've seen since 2008. It's real, this surge of psychic energy, this will to act, to do something, to stop a real and dangerous wrong.

*The year's at the spring,

And day's at the morn;

Morning's at seven;

The hill-side's dew-pearl'd;

The lark's on the wing;

The snail's on the thorn;

God's in His heaven,

All's right with the world!

Who Dan Bishop Looks Up To

 

On multiple occasions, Bishop has invoked the name of Ken Paxton, the Trump-allied Republican attorney general from Texas, as someone he might ally himself with if elected.

--Paige Masten, NandO

“I’m going to be in the attorney general’s office in North Carolina and join the fight with Ken Paxton and other great state attorneys general around the country to protect people’s rights and get the job done.”

--Dan Bishop, on Steve Bannon's "War Room" podcast

Who is Ken Paxton, and why would Dan Bishop want to emulate him? Indebted to Paige Masten for these particulars on Paxton:

Since taking office in 2015, Paxton has sued the federal government dozens of times, spending millions of dollars in lawsuits that have only occasionally yielded results for the people of Texas. Some of those lawsuits include suing the Biden administration over noncitizen voting allegations, a rule protecting privacy for women who get abortions in other states, guidance requiring doctors to provide abortions in emergency situations and for declaring a Texas lizard an endangered species.

Paxton used the full strength of his office to prevent a Texas woman named Kate Cox from receiving an emergency abortion when it was medically necessary, which launched Cox into the national spotlight. Perhaps most notably, Paxton filed a lawsuit in 2020 that attempted to overturn election results in four key battleground states, baselessly claiming that the results were tainted by fraud. Bishop was one of many congressional Republicans to sign onto that lawsuit [which went nowhere].

Paxton was impeached (and acquitted) by the Texas legislature last year, and he remains under federal investigation for corruption amid allegations of bribery and misuse of office."

A culture warrior with slippery morals. That's the man Dan Bishop aspires to be.

Bishop appeared on a panel at the Conservative Political Action Conference alongside Paxton and former Donald Trump adviser Stephen Miller, where the trio discussed how to combat liberal “lawfare.” “We have to fight back,” Bishop said during the panel. “That’s what Ken Paxton’s example has been in Texas … we need more soldiers on the field who can make a difference like Ken has done in Texas.”

A disaster itching to happen to North Carolina.

 

 

Speaker Johnson Steps On His Johnson: "We're Gonna Take Away the Healthcare of Millions"

 

The Guardian,Wed 30 Oct 2024 09.40 EDT:

Vice-President Kamala Harris may have received another last-minute helping hand from Republicans after the House speaker, Mike Johnson, said there would be “massive” healthcare changes if Donald Trump wins next Tuesday, including abolishing Obamacare.

Numbers

 

Partisan turnout numbers, statewide North Carolina, 2024 (Oct. 29):

Partisan turnout numbers, Watauga County, 2024 (Oct. 29)

Dark Matter

 

"...the dark energy animating the MAGA movement"

--NYTimes

The above characterization of MAGA world appeared in an article about the remarkable hatefest staged by Trump at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.

We're very aware of that "energy." It hates us, it stalks us, for we are part of "the enemy within." Crouching, always crouching. The fanatics infested with that dark energy fantasize about the novel ways to catch and torture us. Being fingered by the Big Man is all it takes -- appear as a problem to him and his plans. Progressives, liberals, lib-tards, Demon-rats, especially the ones who share their opinions publicly -- you think we don't feel those bloody eyes? And see the mojo behind it quite clearly in plain sight in foamy comments on websites and social media and on our own blog and on every blog in the universe? That energy hates with burning intensity, and it loves to brag about what it'll do to the enemy within when Trump's back in power, and there are no limits, no consequences, because the Supreme Court granted him immunity from prosecution for "his official acts." (It was in all the papers.)

Trump himself has made sure the energy he inspires is aimed and super-hot. He wants retribution, and he's honed his followers to a spearpoint. Trump is practically demanding violence should he lose the vote. He's demonized the press so that none of his ardent fans will believe its "lies" about him, and he's already declared there's great fraud being engineered against him for the counting of votes, so a loss will always be labeled a criminal fraud perpetrated on a God-blessed victim of the Deep State, a clear miscarriage of honesty and justice. If he sat munching fries, watching the January 6th riot and marveling at the passions expressed for hisownself -- why, it was "a day of love!" -- think how flattered he'll be by riots and attacks on voting administrators on November 6th.

So, yes, the atmosphere going into E-Day is menacing. Apparently menacing for both sides. The MAGA cult justifies its belief that Trump's enemies are just evil, simply evil, bringing some terrifying hellscape of forced atheism and abortion. Them what love Jesus got to gird themselves for holy battle. The rest of us prepare to flinch. What Trump can accomplish in a second term is truly unnerving. 

Cowering isn't the answer. Dogged survival is the only path. The readiness is all.

Monday Headspace

 

Wrath of Khan: Are Jeff Bezos and That Other Billionaire Really Afraid?

 

"Oligarchs controlling the newsroom to curry favor with a fascist"

--@NickyFrank30 

That comment was made on Twitter after the owners of the WashPost and the L.A. Times (Jeff Bezos and Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong) refused the recommendations of their editors to endorse Kamala Harris for president. For practically zillions of observers it looks like cowardice in the face of a feared dictator. If Trump wins.

I've been under some pressure to cancel my own subscription to the WashPost, like apparently a bunch of others have done, but I'm not going to cancel my subscription. I get solid, verified news about politics and politicians from the WashPost. I can ignore the editorials, harden my heart to a rightward tilt, if the news remains the news. Besides, hurting the billionaire owner of a news org only hurts his underpaid and harassed journalists and support staff, if he decides to lay people off because the backlash against him has cut into profits.

Kowtowing to a fascist by the owners of the news is the story here, and the reason to worry.

When Terror Inspires Action

 

The Stress in America poll, conducted by the American Psychological Association (APA), found that 77% of adults are stressed about the future of the nation, and 69% are worried about the upcoming election.

--Health News, 10/23/24

You don't say.

Additional intel: About 72% said they are worried the election results could lead to violence. More than half (56%) believe the election could be the end of democracy in the United States.

Them stakes high enough for you? The loss of hope hangs in the balance. But this poll found the upside:

Most Americans aren't giving into their despair, however. More than three-quarters (77%) intend to vote in the presidential election, and half (51%) said they feel compelled to volunteer or support causes they value.

That's been the good thing, the utter blessing, of this campaign year. The level and dedication of volunteerism.