In Virginia, Goodbye Denver Riggleman, Hello Democrats

Virginia's 5th District Congressman, Republican Denver Riggleman, did a nice thing, officiating at the same-sex marriage for a couple of his campaign aids, and for that piece of outrageous tolerance he was ousted by some 2,400 unamused delegates to the Republican 5th District Convention on Saturday. Bob Good, a former athletics official at Jerry Falwell Jr.’s Liberty University who describes himself as a “biblical conservative,” beat Riggleman, who was said to have a libertarian streak but who promptly joined the Freedom Caucus in the House when he took office back in January 2019. But Bob Good captured 58 percent of the anti-gay marriage vote in a "drive by" Republican convention (no clue how a drive-by convention works, except that it would be good for throwing stones).

I followed that 2018 election in the 5th District of Virginia because I was fascinated by the Democratic candidate Leslie Cockburn. She had had a primary opponent in Roger Dean Huffstetler, a clean-cut ex-Marine who has a personal grudge against the opioid epidemic (his father died of an oxycontin overdose) and who talked the language of land and family while operating as an ambitious, well-connected entrepreneur -- Harvard Business School, Silicon Valley. He started running for Congress less than two years after moving to Charlottesville, and he spent big in 2018. Huffstetler, reading the room and understanding that Leslie Cockburn was going to win it, dropped out of the running just prior to the May 2018 nominating caucus. At the time I called that a "class act" on Huffstetler's part, giving him every benefit of the doubt. Leslie Cockburn went on to lose the general election to the now disgraced Riggleman, getting 46.8% to Riggleman's 53.2% of the vote.

Huffstetler's back this year, running again in a crowded primary next Tuesday, June 23 (this time an open voting primary -- Virginia has weird options), and the field he's up against once again is mighty interesting. Huffstetler has put health care at the top of his agenda, and there's real competition for that issue among his primary opponents. The only consideration, though: Can one of these Democrats beat a Bible-spoutin' Republican for an open seat in this "likely Republican" district (Cook) which nevertheless contains Charlottesville and the University of Virginia, but in the year when rural folk are stirred up for Trump's triumph? Which one of these could overcome all odds?

Cameron Webb

Let's go straight to the website: "After graduating from UVA and getting [both] his medical and law degrees, Cameron was tapped by President Obama for the White House Fellowship. He served on the White House Health Care Team and also worked on President Obama’s My Brother’s Keeper Initiative, where he helped tackle issues in education, workforce development and criminal justice reform."

Impressed yet? "A practicing physician, Cameron returned to Charlottesville where he treats patients as a general internist, teaches students and serves as the Director of Health Policy and Equity at UVA’s School of Medicine. His wife, Dr. Leigh-Ann Webb, is an ER doctor who grew up in Appomattox County. They reside in Albemarle County where they raise their two children, Avery and Lennox."

Expanding health care to everyone is his prime driver, and he has fairly moderate views based on experience and knowledge.

I like his political savvy: “...it is a mistake to say that the 5th District is heavily Republican.” Instead, he explained, Democratic candidates should focus on outreach to district residents who usually do not vote at all, especially African Americans. “Field a full team,” he said. “Expand the electorate.” There's clearly an electorate in that swath of Virginia ripe for expansion.

But will rural white Virginians elect a black man, even one as accomplished as Cameron Webb? I think it's wholly feasible, maybe even for a district that still contains moonshine capital Franklin County.

John Lesinski

Lesinski, like Huffstetler, is a retired Marine. His major distinction: He's alone among all the candidates for his actually having been elected to office, as both a school board member and a county supervisor in Rappanhannock County.

He's running as the moderate and seems to believe fervently in the Chuck Todd Theory that there are just oodles of Republican and Independent voters out there in a conservative district like the Virginia Fifth just waiting for a decent and moderate Democrat to vote for as a relief from the indecencies of the Trump presidency. “I feel that now there are moderates and independents who would consider voting across the aisle, who feel left behind by their party,” he said. Dr. Rachel Bitecofer demolishes the Chuck Todd Theory of the great swing vote, but there are always Democratic candidates who hitch their fortunes to being agreeable to the opposition.

Lesinski expressed support for moving toward a single-payer health care system eventually, although he argued that building on the Affordable Care Act would be more politically feasible in the short term. Regardless of the mechanism, he said, “I believe health care is a right, not a privilege.”


Claire Russo

More wealth of ex-Marine Corps experience. Claire Russo "served as an Intelligence Officer in the First Marine Expeditionary Force and the First Marine Air Wing. She deployed to Fallujah, Iraq where she led a team of Marines targeting insurgent networks. Claire continued her service after the Marines, working as a civilian with the Army. In this capacity, she deployed to Afghanistan and served as a counter insurgency adviser to the infantry. Following her work with the Army, Claire served on General Petraeus’s counter insurgency advisory team where she evaluated the training and employment of female engagement teams and their support of special operations forces in Afghanistan." [website]

Good Lord, the talent running for Congress in the Virginia 5th this year! She's making gun control a central issue, a risky proposition for rural Virginia, but look at this: "She likened her stance on gun policy to the laws surrounding driving a car. When speaking to gun-owning rural voters, she said, she emphasizes that 'I absolutely respect his right to own a gun, but it has to be safe and not hurt other people.'

"She would support legislation requiring background checks on every firearm transfer and the creation of so-called 'red flag' laws, a mechanism by which police or individuals can petition a court to remove temporarily an individual’s firearms if that individual is deemed to represent a threat to public safety. She elaborated later, 'It is unacceptable that people convicted of domestic violence can continue to possess guns.' ”

Will that fly? Dunno, but we'll soon know which of these Democrats will get to take on Bob Good for this now open House seat.

R D Huffstetler in the 5th District of Virginia

We first took note of the young ex-Marine running as the Democratic insurgent in the 5th Congressional District of Virginia back in January of 2018 ... Roger Dean ("R.D.") Huffstetler. I wrote about him at that time and included a map of that heavily Republican district.

Huffstetler was challenged for the Democratic nomination by an equally impressive Democratic woman, Leslie Cockburn, who had plenty of money backing her, and in a district-wide nominating convention, Cockburn had sewn up enough support to win. Huffstetler bowed to the inevitable, dropped out of the race on the eve of the convention, and endorsed Cockburn. Cockburn went on to lose in November to Republican first-time candidate Denver Riggleman.

R. D. Huffstetler is back for 2020. He announced a week ago. He was an impressive fundraiser in 2018, and the news on Twitter last night was that he's already raised $100,000 in that first week.

I like that he's strongly working class in background, born in Gaston County, NC, to a blue-collar, textile-mill-working family. His father drove an 18-wheeler. He talked frankly in his 2018 introductory video about his parents' struggle with addiction to painkillers, and about his own sense of calling to defend his country after 9/11. He joined the Marines, served in both Iraq and Afghanistan, and after his service got a leg up with the G.I. Bill for higher education at the Harvard Business School. He and his OB/GYN wife and daughter live in Charlottesville.

He might be the one to flip that district in 2020.

New Hope in the US House: 3 Women From Virginia

Personal Note
We'd like to meet the chief political minds behind these winning campaigns. Call us.

Jennifer Wexton in Virginia's 10th Congressional District beat incumbent Republican Barbara Comstock with over 56% of the vote.

Wexton had been a well known Virginia state senator from Loudoun County, and she won the June congressional primary against a slew of Democratic opponents. She was an immediate favorite to knock out Comstock, widely considered the most vulnerable Republican in the nation. Wexton ran her campaign not so much as an insurgent but as a frontrunner protecting a huge lead. (Trump is sufficiently unpopular in her northern Virginia district. And she wasn't shy about being the resistance. "Change Is Coming" was one of her slogans.)

Loudoun County was jet fuel for Wexton. It's both the heart of and the population center for the 10th District. Government professionals, non-profit professionals, local business entrepreneurs, suburban Republican women. The 10th hasn't voted for a Democrat in over 60 years. But Wexton was already known and respected as a state senator. She won her seat in a special election in 2014 and was reelected in 2015 with over 56% of the vote. She had earned distinction as a lawyer and a prosecutor -- an assistant Commonwealth’s Attorney. Plus she'd done a ton of pro bono legal work, served as president of the local bar, and was appointed a special judge in Loudoun District Court.

Perhaps a new political icon -- Suburban Professional Woman.

Abigail Spanberger in Virginia's 7th Congressional District beat incumbent Tea Party Republican Dave Brat by a 6,500-vote margin. A Libertarian candidate got just over 1% of the vote.

Spanberger grew up in Short Pump, Virginia, in Henrico County. She attended J.R. Tucker High School’s Spanish immersion program, served as a Senate Page for US Senator Chuck Robb, and graduated from the University of Virginia. After college, she moved to Germany and earned her MBA from a dual-degree German-American program. She was picking up important languages for espionage.

Before the CIA, she was a federal law enforcement officer working narcotics and money laundering cases with the US Postal Inspection Service. With her background speaking multiple languages, Abigail joined the CIA as an Operations Officer (entering the clandestine service and specializing in counter-terrorism). She traveled and lived abroad collecting intelligence, managing assets, and overseeing high-profile programs. In 2014, she left government service to begin a career in the private sector with EAB, a higher education consulting firm. At EAB Spanberger has helped colleges and universities create diverse student bodies, increase graduation rates, and break down financial barriers to higher education.

Good introductory video:

Elaine Luria in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District beat incumbent Republican Scott Taylor with a little over 51% of the vote. The 2nd District contains the HDQs of Pat Robertson's Christian Broadcasting Network.

Michael Tackett profiled Luria way back last January in the New York Times (along with two other women veterans of the Armed Forces running for high office in 2018):

Luria joined the Navy at the age of 17, eventually "majoring in" surface warfare at the Naval Academy. She rose to commander rank and served for 20 years before retiring.

"Luria said that she felt the pull to run for office after Mr. Trump’s election, and that her husband quit his job to help take over household duties so she could focus on campaigning .... she had earned a black belt in taekwondo, passed all the required endurance tests and flourished in the classroom .... After the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, she said, she felt compelled to stay in the Navy. She had a letter of resignation stuck in her desk, but never submitted it." 

Luria had the backing of the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) and ran a disciplined and (judging from my own in-box) relentless campaign.


But There Were Also 3 Heart-Breaks in Virginia

Organic farmer and writer Anthony Flaccavento in the 7th, whom I profiled back in July.

Investigative journalist Leslie Cockburn in the 5th, whom I profiled back on May 30th.

"Bold progressive activist" Jennifer Lewis in the 6th, whom I profiled in July.

Vote outcomes: Flaccavento didn't come close, Cockburn got almost 47%, and Lewis got 40%.

 Flaccavento's loss probably means it'll take years before another Democrat attempts it (I at least hear that from a political activist in the 7th). Cockburn (or someone like her) could possibly win it next time. And Lewis has something to build on.

How Can You Tell When They're Nervous? They Sweat Money

Republicans approve of fear as good politics -- caravans of illegals looking to spread a plague of leprosy, for just one example -- so let's talk fear with one week to go. Republican fear. Oh, they're not actually afraid of brown-skinned plague-bearers. That's just a pose (or else they're as gullible as a Florida bomb maker or a synagogue murderer). What they're really afraid of right now is losing big-time.

Watching the scrambles of Republican PAC money in Washington -- now that's a study in fear.

congressional seats needed for Dems to take the House ... 23
*congressional seats held by Rs in districts won by Clinton in 2016 ... 25
deep red seats that now look flippable to blue ... ??  

Guesses vary, go as high as 70 or more. Predictions are always fantasies.

But seriously, folks, literally dozens of "comer" Democrats are running in red districts from Maine to Washington state who could overturn the tables of the money-changers, good D candidates running exceptional campaigns in deep red districts. They're muddying predictions because they're playing for keeps and playing well in districts no one thought competitive.

Republican disbelievers in a blue wave fall back on recent history: Those deep red districts aren't really flippable because Trump's base is fired up, and it's the Democrats who're an angry, impotent mob, and Congressional districts just don't change hands that much. Weren't they paying attention during all those 2017 and early 2018 special elections (save one, below) in which longtime Republican incumbents went down -- or ancient Republican state and Federal seats changed hands, often decisively, like an ice-water slap? Don't they remember that?

So news reaches us here this morning that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is rushing quick aid to a number of Republican candidates (both incumbents and newcomers) running in red districts that Trump took in 2016 by anywhere from 7 to 20+ points ... because of impressive Democrats running stronger than anyone thought possible.

Partial list of those in-trouble Rs (and their D challengers, who are pictured):

Lucy McBath

Karen Handel --first-term Republican incumbent. You may recall how Handel won her seat in a special 2017 election against young, attractive Democratic opponent Jon Ossoff. If you recall that, you'll also recall our getting excited about Ossoff, who popped onto the national radar well funded and staffed by professionals. But Ossoff lost that special election to Handel for apparently being too much the outsider, a liberal pimp. Instead of a Northern carpetbagger like Ossoff, this year the Democrats of the 6th District of Georgia picked Lucy McBath. She's very much the insider. Also black, young, and an avowed proponent of gun control. They're afraid of McBath in Georgia (let alone D.C.) and are pumping up Handel. With Stacey Abrams at the top of the Georgia ticket, McBath and Abrams would mutually benefit from voter enthusiasm if they can overcome the voter suppression.

Abigail Spanberger

Dave Brat -- in Virginia's 7th District. He's the brat who beat powerful incumbent Republican big-wig Eric Cantor in 2014. He's in trouble. Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer, has come on strong. A poll by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University very recently put Spanberger over Brat, 46 - 45. NRCC is pouring money in for attack ads on TV.

Leslie Cockburn

Denver Riggleman -- in Virginia's 5th District. Riggleman is running for the seat left open by retiring Republican Tom Garrett, who announced he had an alcohol problem, and the high he got from being powerful wasn't helping. Background on Garrett here. Democrat Leslie Cockburn won the primary and has been a credible candidate in a sprawling rural district that includes the university town of Charlottesville. We wrote extensively about Cockburn way back in May.

Joe Cunningham

Katie Arrington -- in South Carolina's 1st District, which includes Charleston. Arrington is Trump-blessed (he laid his holy hands on Arrington's noggin in the Republican primary after incumbent Republican adulterer Mark Sanford dared to criticize the president out loud). According to Sullivan and Weigel, "Katie Arrington has had trouble putting away her Democratic opponent, Joe Cunningham," in a district both Trump and Mark Sanford won easily. I've written admiringly of Cunningham more than once. He looks like a winner to me.

Amy McGrath

Garland "Andy" Barr -- in Kentucky's 6th. Incumbent Barr is seriously endangered by former fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who's been a favorite of mine all year. Barr is getting big TV money and consultants to try to knock those wings off McGrath. Trump carried the 6th District by 13 points. House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) is flying in to campaign for Barr -- curious choice, since Ryan himself is a perfect symbol of Republican defeatism in this cycle -- Ryan retired rather than face IronStache.













* NRCC and Republican super-PACS have been pulling support for some incumbents considered too far gone to save -- throwing them to the wolves.

The Rise of Leslie Cockburn in Virginia's 5th Congressional District

Republican Congressman Tom Garrett's surprise announcement on Monday that he would not seek a second term because he's an alcoholic has certainly boosted the candidacy of Democrat Leslie Cockburn, a first-time candidate for office who was already looking like a winner.

Leslie Cockburn

Cockburn had cleared the field of her Democratic rivals. The Democrats of the Virginia 5th District opted for a nominating caucus of counties rather than a primary (they can do that in Virginia), and Cockburn had most of those counties behind her. The sprawling 5th District takes in all or part of 21 counties, from the North Carolina border almost up to Maryland. Her leading Democratic opponent, Roger Dean Huffstetler, who'd raised over a million $$ himself, dropped out of the race a couple of days before the May 5th caucus and endorsed Cockburn:

“Democrats in the Fifth District have made it loud and clear through local caucuses that they want Leslie Cockburn to be our nominee to take on Tom Garrett this fall,” Huffstetler said in a statement. “Leslie worked extremely hard to earn that distinction, achieving viability in all 23 localities and winning an outright majority of delegates. She and her team are to be congratulated on executing on their strategy with precision and enthusiasm.”

Roger Dean Huffstetler is a class act, and he himself, an ex-Marine, looked like a winner back in January when he announced. Leslie Cockburn didn't get into the race until July, and she swept everyone away, including Huffstetler. Sic transit semper fi.

So what is it about Leslie Cockburn? She's something of a celebrity, married to Irish journalist and filmmaker Andrew Cockburn (who is also, incidentally, an old Russian expert; he wrote The Threat – Inside the Soviet Military Machine in 1982). Leslie and Andrew's daughter Olivia Wilde is a successful actress. Leslie has been a top investigative journalist, an award-winning producer for CBS's 60 Minutes. She has won two Emmys, two George Polk Awards, two Columbia Dupont journalism awards, and the Robert F. Kennedy Award. John Lewis, civil rights leader and dean of Georgia’s congressional delegation, has offered to come and campaign for her.

"In 2009, Leslie Cockburn directed and co-produced (with husband Andrew Cockburn) her first feature documentary for theatrical release. American Casino relates the story of the origins, progress and consequences of the subprime mortgage disaster that led to the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression. Beginning filming in January 2008, Cockburn laid bare both the financial machinations and miscalculations on Wall Street that produced the disaster as well as its effects on an array of Baltimore homeowners struggling to stay afloat. The film premiered at New York's Tribeca Film Festival in April 2009." (Thank you, Wikipedia)

So there's some talent there. And smarts. And connections.

She's gonna need all of that. Last I saw, the 5th District of Virginia (sorta like the 5th District of NC) was rated "safely Republican," and it could be a natural dam against any blue wave. But Cockburn is campaigning on kitchen table issues, like health care and education, and she's unapologetic about her environmentalism. She's come out in opposition to the Atlantic Coast pipeline, which would cut through productive farms and small businesses (like the Four Corners Farm in Franklin County) to transit fracked-gas to North Carolina.

Meanwhile, the Republican executives of the 5th District have to choose a replacement on the ballot for Tom Garrett, somebody who will probably be nowhere as prominent as Leslie Cockburn.