Republicans think poorly of Democratic elected officials because they disagree with them; Democrats think poorly of Democratic elected officials because they think they’re ineffective.
I take "ineffective" to mean, primarily, weak. Paralyzed. What if? but also ... what if...? Unable to calculate the forest because the trees are in the way.
Winning is not weak, and right now I can concentrate my hopes and energies on Democratic Party winners, starting with Josh Stein and Jeff Jackson in North Carolina, who are highly effective. Their styles are low-key, not hot and aggressive but reasoned and clear and in a word strong.
Democratic winners are actually pretty plentiful nationally. Susan Crawford defeated Republican Brad Schimel by10 points in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race in April, where both Trump and Musk tried to put their thumbs on the scales for Schimel, especially Musk. Democrat Abigail Spanberger is clearly favored to win the race for Virginia governor in November, and Mikie Sherrill appears to be leading comfortably for governor of New Jersey. (I profiled both Spanberger and Sherrill when they first ran for and won seats in Congress in the Blue Wave of 2018. They've turned out to be rising stars.)
Zohran Mamdani belongs to a wholly unique class of one. His in-your-face vacation announcement video -- "Uganda Miss Me, But I'll Be Back Soon" -- is like nothing I've ever seen a candidate do, directly answer the "go back to Africa!" haters with an "up-yours" that's both funny and muscular. I'm praying he's as level-headed as the character he plays on TikTok.
Personal Note We'd like to meet the chief political minds behind these winning campaigns. Call us.
Jennifer Wexton in Virginia's 10th Congressional District beat incumbent Republican Barbara Comstock with over 56% of the vote.
Wexton had been a well known Virginia state senator from Loudoun County, and she won the June congressional primary against a slew of Democratic opponents. She was an immediate favorite to knock out Comstock, widely considered the most vulnerable Republican in the nation. Wexton ran her campaign not so much as an insurgent but as a frontrunner protecting a huge lead. (Trump is sufficiently unpopular in her northern Virginia district. And she wasn't shy about being the resistance. "Change Is Coming" was one of her slogans.)
Loudoun County was jet fuel for Wexton. It's both the heart of and the population center for the 10th District. Government professionals, non-profit professionals, local business entrepreneurs, suburban Republican women. The 10th hasn't voted for a Democrat in over 60 years. But Wexton was already known and respected as a state senator. She won her seat in a special election in 2014 and was reelected in 2015 with over 56% of the vote. She had earned distinction as a lawyer and a prosecutor -- an assistant Commonwealth’s Attorney. Plus she'd done a ton of pro bono legal work, served as president of the local bar, and was appointed a special judge in Loudoun District Court.
Perhaps a new political icon -- Suburban Professional Woman.
Abigail Spanberger in Virginia's 7th Congressional District beat incumbent Tea Party Republican Dave Brat by a 6,500-vote margin. A Libertarian candidate got just over 1% of the vote.
Spanberger grew up in Short Pump, Virginia, in Henrico County. She attended J.R. Tucker High School’s Spanish immersion program, served as a Senate Page for US Senator Chuck Robb, and graduated from the University of Virginia. After college, she moved to Germany and earned her MBA from a dual-degree German-American program. She was picking up important languages for espionage.
Before the CIA, she was a federal law enforcement officer working narcotics and money laundering cases with the US Postal Inspection Service. With her background speaking multiple languages, Abigail joined the CIA as an Operations Officer (entering the clandestine service and specializing in counter-terrorism). She traveled and lived abroad collecting intelligence, managing assets, and overseeing high-profile programs. In 2014, she left government service to begin a career in the private sector with EAB, a higher education consulting firm. At EAB Spanberger has helped colleges and universities create diverse student bodies, increase graduation rates, and break down financial barriers to higher education.
Good introductory video:
Elaine Luria in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District beat incumbent Republican Scott Taylor with a little over 51% of the vote. The 2nd District contains the HDQs of Pat Robertson's Christian Broadcasting Network.
Michael Tackett profiled Luria way back last January in the New York Times (along with two other women veterans of the Armed Forces running for high office in 2018):
Luria joined the Navy at the age of 17, eventually "majoring in" surface warfare at the Naval Academy. She rose to commander rank and served for 20 years before retiring.
"Luria said that she felt the pull to run for office after Mr. Trump’s election, and that her husband quit his job to help take over household duties so she could focus on campaigning .... she had earned a black belt in taekwondo, passed all the required endurance tests and flourished in the classroom .... After the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, she said, she felt compelled to stay in the Navy. She had a letter of resignation stuck in her desk, but never submitted it."
Luria had the backing of the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) and ran a disciplined and (judging from my own in-box) relentless campaign.
"Bold progressive activist" Jennifer Lewis in the 6th, whom I profiled in July.
Vote outcomes: Flaccavento didn't come close, Cockburn got almost 47%, and Lewis got 40%.
Flaccavento's loss probably means it'll take years before another Democrat attempts it (I at least hear that from a political activist in the 7th). Cockburn (or someone like her) could possibly win it next time. And Lewis has something to build on.
Republicans approve of fear as good politics -- caravans of illegals looking to spread a plague of leprosy, for just one example -- so let's talk fear with one week to go. Republican fear. Oh, they're not actually afraid of brown-skinned plague-bearers. That's just a pose (or else they're as gullible as a Florida bomb maker or a synagogue murderer). What they're really afraid of right now is losing big-time.
Watching the scrambles of Republican PAC money in Washington -- now that's a study in fear.
congressional seats needed for Dems to take the House ... 23 *congressional seats held by Rs in districts won by Clinton in 2016 ... 25 deep red seats that now look flippable to blue ... ??
Guesses vary, go as high as 70 or more. Predictions are always fantasies.
But seriously, folks, literally dozens of "comer" Democrats are running in red districts from Maine to Washington state who could overturn the tables of the money-changers, good D candidates running exceptional campaigns in deep red districts. They're muddying predictions because they're playing for keeps and playing well in districts no one thought competitive.
Republican disbelievers in a blue wave fall back on recent history: Those deep red districts aren't really flippable because Trump's base is fired up, and it's the Democrats who're an angry, impotent mob, and Congressional districts just don't change hands that much. Weren't they paying attention during all those 2017 and early 2018 special elections (save one, below) in which longtime Republican incumbents went down -- or ancient Republican state and Federal seats changed hands, often decisively, like an ice-water slap? Don't they remember that?
So news reaches us here this morning that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is rushing quick aid to a number of Republican candidates (both incumbents and newcomers) running in red districts that Trump took in 2016 by anywhere from 7 to 20+ points ... because of impressive Democrats running stronger than anyone thought possible.
Partial list of those in-trouble Rs (and their D challengers, who are pictured):
Lucy McBath
Karen Handel --first-term Republican incumbent. You may recall how Handel won her seat in a special 2017 election against young, attractive Democratic opponent Jon Ossoff. If you recall that, you'll also recall our getting excited about Ossoff, who popped onto the national radar well funded and staffed by professionals. But Ossoff lost that special election to Handel for apparently being too much the outsider, a liberal pimp. Instead of a Northern carpetbagger like Ossoff, this year the Democrats of the 6th District of Georgia picked Lucy McBath. She's very much the insider. Also black, young, and an avowed proponent of gun control. They're afraid of McBath in Georgia (let alone D.C.) and are pumping up Handel. With Stacey Abrams at the top of the Georgia ticket, McBath and Abrams would mutually benefit from voter enthusiasm if they can overcome the voter suppression.
Abigail Spanberger
Dave Brat -- in Virginia's 7th District. He's the brat who beat powerful incumbent Republican big-wig Eric Cantor in 2014. He's in trouble. Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer, has come on strong. A poll by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University very recently put Spanberger over Brat, 46 - 45. NRCC is pouring money in for attack ads on TV.
Leslie Cockburn
Denver Riggleman -- in Virginia's 5th District. Riggleman is running for the seat left open by retiring Republican Tom Garrett, who announced he had an alcohol problem, and the high he got from being powerful wasn't helping. Background on Garrett here. Democrat Leslie Cockburn won the primary and has been a credible candidate in a sprawling rural district that includes the university town of Charlottesville. We wrote extensively about Cockburn way back in May.
Joe Cunningham
Katie Arrington -- in South Carolina's 1st District, which includes Charleston. Arrington is Trump-blessed (he laid his holy hands on Arrington's noggin in the Republican primary after incumbent Republican adulterer Mark Sanford dared to criticize the president out loud). According to Sullivan and Weigel, "Katie Arrington has had trouble putting away her Democratic opponent, Joe Cunningham," in a district both Trump and Mark Sanford won easily. I've written admiringly of Cunningham more than once. He looks like a winner to me.
Amy McGrath
Garland "Andy" Barr -- in Kentucky's 6th. Incumbent Barr is seriously endangered by former fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who's been a favorite of mine all year. Barr is getting big TV money and consultants to try to knock those wings off McGrath. Trump carried the 6th District by 13 points. House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) is flying in to campaign for Barr -- curious choice, since Ryan himself is a perfect symbol of Republican defeatism in this cycle -- Ryan retired rather than face IronStache.
* NRCC and Republican super-PACS have been pulling support for some incumbents considered too far gone to save -- throwing them to the wolves.
Tuesday's Republican primary for the US Senate put Corey Stewart in an awkward place: He won with less than 50% of the vote (on very puny Republican turnout), and every big buck Republican and conservative machine immediately announced they wouldn't be participating at the US Senate level in Virginia this year.
Because of Corey Stewart (who, like his idol Twitterman, trails disreputable baggage).
See, he's a Civil War fantasist who hangs with white nationalists. "Stewart launched his Senate campaign after surprising -- and alarming -- national Republicans by winning 42.5% in last year's gubernatorial primary against former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie." (Gillespie went on to lose the governorship to Democrat Ralph Northam.)
Corey Stewart, campaigning last year
Stewart made Charlottesville's push to remove its statue of Robert E. Lee the centerpiece of his campaign for governor, holding rallies for the monument and displaying Confederate flags while defending "heritage" at his events. At one point, he attended an Old South ball.
He attended a news conference with the leader of the white supremacist protest that later resulted in the death of a counter-protester in Charlottesville. And after that counter-protester, Heather Heyer, was killed in a hit-and-run, Stewart blamed the violence on "both sides."
With Twitterman, Stewart has become the norm in the Republican Party of 2018, and the now "old guard" of sane Republicans are withdrawing to the wings. The Koch network, which runs Americans for Prosperity, announced it would not support Stewart -- or anyone else -- and the US Senate Republican campaign arm is giving Stewart a pass too. Ouch.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine had no primary opponent. He'll run strong statewide, and meanwhile Corey Stewart is likely to depress turnout among suburban Republicans ... hurting the reelection prospects of at least three endangered Republican US House members.
R Barbara Comstock (Va. 10th CD) ... challenged by D Jennifer Wexton
J.W. Williamson was the founding editor in 1972 of the Appalachian Journal: A Regional Studies Review, which he edited until July of 2000. He has taught college classes in Appalachian history, cultural politics, and literature, and he has lectured widely on the pop-culture history of "Appalachia" in the American consciousness. His books include Interviewing Appalachia, Southern Mountaineers in Silent Films, and Hillbillyland: What the Mountains Did to the Movies and What the Movies Did to the Mountains. He has won the Thomas Wolfe Award given by the Western North Carolina Historical Society, the Laurel Leaves Award given by the Appalachian Consortium, a special Weatherford Award given by Berea College, and the Cratis Williams-James Brown Award given by the Appalachian Studies Association.
The views expressed on WataugaWatch are solely those of J.W. Williamson or individual contributors and are not necessarily shared nor endorsed by the Watauga County Democratic Party nor by any other adults of sound mind in this or any other universe.
