What's the Matter with Deanna Ballard?

 

Word filtering out of Raleigh -- and by "filtering" I mean strained and adulterated before it reaches these nether regions of the state -- authoritative word is that Sen. Ralph Hise drew Sen. Deanna Ballard into the new 47th NC Senate District, double-bunking her with him, because she's not won the esteem of Phil Berger and his boys (of which Ralph Hise is one). Deanna Ballard -- not always a team player with Berger and the boys? Surprised. But okay, yeah, maybe. (I'm fresh out of guesses why she may have fallen from grace; hoping someone will enlighten me.) I confess that I've never thought of Ballard, the recruit and employee of Franklin Graham, as having an appreciable ounce of independence. But because I'm a liberal Democrat, I'm prepared to accept the strangest things.

Opinions up here in the nether regions think it likely she's going to announce for the new 14th Congressional District -- take that! Phil Berger -- and that if she does announce, she'll instantly be the frontrunner among the Republicans and that she will sweep both the Republican primary and the general election against Jasmine Beach-Ferrara, who the smart money sez will be the Democratic nominee.

I don't know about any of that, but I pay attention to opinions coming from old hands in North Carolina politics. As a congressional candidate, Deanna Ballard is going to be new to most of that district (except for Watauga and Avery), and most of the Republican primary voters in the old 11th CD have been enthralled by the mad masculinity of petulant Madison Cawthorn, and they may not immediately take to Ballard's much softer presentation of politics.

In a congressional race, Ballard's main rival might be Bruce O'Connell, who's busily trying to don the Cawthorn mantle after being a potential rival in the Republican primary. O'Connell literally twisted himself into the frame to get photographed with Cawthorn, who does not look fizzy to be symbolically blessing the candidacy of the man who had recently set out to beat him out of his gravy train.

If Sen. Chuck Edwards from Henderson County decides to run -- who's been prominently mentioned as considering the race -- that will necessarily complicate things further. We don't know what's going to happen, but plenty of other people think they do.

Are You Not Rejuvenated, 14th CD?

 

So yesterday, and on cue, the relocated-from-Detroit Michele Woodhouse, the Republican chair of the old 11th Congressional district, announced her candidacy for Madison Cawthorn's seat. She had scrubbed her social media of certain histories, but they were going to emerge anyway:

This was her business. "Vaginal rejuvenation." Is that a thing? I would Google, but I'm afraid to.

Anyway, there was some stout pushback from fellow Republicans in the district, apparently resentful that Michele Woodhouse had been scheming for some time to keep the lane open for herself. The following posted by a Cherokee County Republican activist:

Who else isn't happy? Bruce O'Connell, one of the three Republicans already announced for the Cawthorn seat (and the most conservative of the three). O'Connell said the announcement prompted him to speak out. "He described several months of overt and indirect pressure from Woodhouse to drop out of the race for District 14, previously District 11. 'Ms. Woodhouse used a number of tactics to discourage my candidacy for this office, including "blacklisting" me and other candidates from speaking at GOP events,' " O'Connell said. As GOP district chairperson, Woodhouse was obligated to be fair and impartial and to encourage a robust political environment embracing all GOP candidates, he said. Instead her tactics of repressing contenders could well have violated ethical standards.

Oh Cawthorn! You've caused a massive pileup of bad juju on the Republican candidate fast-track.

Bruce O'Connell Might Steal Some of Cawthorn's Support

 

11th CD candidate Bruce O'Connell

While the other three Republicans running in the 2022 primary for Madison Cawthorn's seat seem moderate by comparison (described here and here), Bruce O'Connell, the well known Pisgah Inn host, comes off as (much) more conservative, not so much for the policy positions (though we do get standard-issue MAGA compost -- protect guns, build the wall, "Critical Race Theory" BAD, etc.). He seems Trumpist-lite more for what he doesn't say about Cawthorn (and he says a lot). 

O'Connell's list of Cawthorn's faults makes no mention of his sanctioning of violence against the US government and his participation in the "Stop the Steal" movement which led to violence, property destruction, and death. Cawthorn was there at the rally on January 6th. He spoke. He ginned them up to accept BLOOD as part of the compact for making American great again. He's implied his belief that force can be legitimate public reaction. 

But candidate O'Connell makes no mention of any of that -- says not one word about Trump or that whole election mishegoss. O'Connell's only concerned about Cawthorn's lack of maturity, particularly his adolescent behavior: he's mouthy and disrespectful, slacking on his chores, partying instead of working. Teenage stuff. O'Connell makes no acknowledgement that what Cawthorn models is dangerous to our very democracy.

Maybe that blindspot comes from this: O'Connell's main fame came with running the Pisgah Inn on the Blue Ridge Parkway for decades -- running it well -- and then defying the government shutdown in 2013, declaring on social media and in the press that he would not give in to government "tyranny." He kept the Inn open -- the land and building are actually owned by the Federal government -- until Park Service cars blocked the entrance to his parking lot. He had to give in. Which makes him sympathetic to the insurrectionists on January 6th? Or at least willing to give them a pass and forget they ever fulminated into mass violence? 

Here's a small irony: The government shutdown of 2013 was engineered by hard-right conservatives to show their contempt for Obama's government. Bruce O'Connell's defiance was showing contempt for government shutdowns. In 2013 it was all Mark Meadows's big show. He led the Freedom Caucus into bullying other Republicans to get in line. O'Connell has no cause to admire former Congressman Meadows, who was what a conservative was supposed to be in 2013.

For historians, let alone believers in science, O'Connell is just wrong in opposing a vaccine mandate: "I believe the choice not to get vaccinated does NOT infringe on other's rights. I understand many will disagree with my position, and that is what freedom is all about. The freedom to disagree. I do not want to live under a Dictatorship." Small problem with that particular freedom: It's based on a lie. Unvaccinated people do pose a threat to others. That's just a fact. And that's why government has mandated vaccines against any number of childhood diseases going back a century.

Bottomline for me, after spending several hours on his website: I can't help thinking that O'Connell will be an attractive candidate. The popularity and high ratings of the Pisgah Inn suggest he knows how to use his personality to win people over, and his Trumpist boilerplate might be enough to coax former Cawthorn Republicans to come away from the dark. The problem of four total candidates, all with their own winning qualities and commensurate followers -- sorry to say it, means Cawthorn wins the primary with a plurality.

Another Republican Intends To Challenge Madison Cawthorn in the 2022 Primary

Rod Honeycutt, standing next to his
wife, and their entire family

The entrance of Rod (Rodney) Honeycutt into the 11th CD 2022 Republican primary instantly raises the question: Will too many Republican challengers spoil The Upset? See, most if not all of the announced challengers are better qualified to do the job than Madison Cawthorn is doing, the job of government he's hired to do, but isn't, because he's much more interested in grandstanding for the Trumpist yahoos, while raising beaucoup bucks. Will too many credible adults in the race divide the opposition (other adult voters who have not lost their minds) and let Cawthorn squeak back into Washington?

It's a concern. We've seen it happen before, in both parties: Too many challengers divide the dissatisfied and allow the incumbent to waltz on. So we hope that Republicans in the 11th CD, at least those who want better representation, will coalesce around a single challenger.

That might be Army retired Col. Rod Honeycutt, who tries to strike a reasoned and adult profile on his campaign website -- in clear contrast to Cawthorn. Unfortunately, Honeycutt's announcement video (posted on the homepage of the website) offers zero in the way of personality, personal bio, view of the world -- any sense of an individual at all. Instead, we get the sound of Indian wardrums. Huh? To what purpose did some bright campaign functionary decide that was a good idea?

In his bio, Honeycutt is clearly drawing a contrast to Cawthorn, by emphasizing that he grew up poor and has had a good work ethic all his life -- things Cawthorn never experienced and could only read about (if he reads anything at all but his own press clippings). Honeycutt's most direct reproach to Cawthorn -- without mentioning his name -- is buried at the bottom of the page here: "I will not watch from the sidelines as inexperienced, self-promoting characters seek to further careers while the hard-working men and women of WNC suffer the consequences."

Honeycutt is a Republican, remember, so you've got to expect some of this: He thinks the government should force Twitter and Facebook to give Donald Trump back his platforms for spreading dangerous misinformation and silly conspiracy theories. Bad. But he also favors background checks for the purchase of firearms. He complains that Biden's stimulus checks and unemployment benefits have made workers lazy (!) but that giving Federal money to businesses because of the COVID turndown is just fine. That imbalance of economic concern tells me a great deal about Honeycutt's ingrained Republicanism -- landlords, yes; renters, no. He says he wants to protect the environment, but without any specificity.

His military achievement could propel Honeycutt into first place against Cawthorn. Plus he clearly isn't crazy and could have been much more extreme on his website about his political philosophy, to attract the voters who are still in love with Cawthorn's vaudeville show ("The Compleat Asshole"). Honeycutt builds a relatively moderate resume throughout and looks like he wouldn't be a continued embarrassment to the district.

Other Republican Candidates Already Running Against Cawthorn

The first announced was Wendy Nevarez, a moderate Republican woman who at first glance doesn't "fit" the district that sent Madison Cawthorn to Congress. She's a Navy veteran, a professional, and she's gotten active on Twitter. She's pro-vaccination, which means she's no Trumpist. Most entertainingly, she doesn't mind spanking Cawthorn on his chubby bottom for being such a jerky kid: "Worry about doing your job better!" Bravely (for a Republican in the 11th CD), Nevarez slapped back at Cawthorn for his declaration that he was introducing legislation to abolish OSHA: "Have you ever opened one of their manuals?" she demanded. "No you haven’t. Politicizing the 100+ employee mandated vaccine/testing reqs doesn’t warrant gutting an entire admin. dedicated to protecting workers from unsafe work conditions since 1970!" A Republican defending a Federal regulatory agency! Good Lord.

Under most circumstances, Wendy Nevarez would make a good Southern Democrat.

Bruce O'Connell, well-known operator for the Pisgah Inn on the Blue Ridge Parkway since the late 1970s. He was profiled extensively on WataugaWatch here.

At the time of that writing O'Connell had no on-line campaign presence. He's rectified that, but I haven't yet taken the time to delve into his presentation and how it might contrast with incumbent Cawthorn and with the other candidates. I'll get there eventually.

Another Republican Planning to Challenge Incumbent Madison Cawthorn in the 2022 Primary

 

Bruce O'Connell

Chris Cooper reported two days ago that another Republican has filed paper with the Federal Elections Commission to run in the NC11 against incumbent nose-miner Madison Cawthorn -- Bruce O'Connell, who has no campaign infrastructure yet but who does have a noteworthy personal history in the 11th CD.

O'Connell has run the Pisgah Inn on the Blue Ridge Parkway since the late 1970s. The inn is actually owned by the Federal government, with O'Connell the "concessionaire" running it. In October of 2013 he was ordered to shutter the inn because of the government shutdown that was engineered, just incidentally, by Congressman Mark Meadows, big in the Freedom Caucus at the time and big in the 11th CD.

At first O'Connell defied the shutdown order and achieved hero status among people who hate the government:

O'Connell said he has heard from thousands of people since making his stand. His story caught fire on social media with tweets and Facebook posts decrying the government's move to close the business. He said the support has been humbling.

"I've heard from liberals, and I've heard from conservatives," he said. "I've heard all of them, from everybody. They all have said the same thing, every one of them: Don't give up. Fight tyranny. That tells me that if someone threw a match in the middle of the country it would explode right now." [USA Today]

...about 30 protesters, some of them identifying themselves as members of the Tea Party, showed up at the inn to protest its closure. Bruce O’Connell, the managing director of the Pisgah Inn, became an overnight hero for anti-government conservatives and the inn was seen as a symbolic battleground. [Ashvegas]

When Park Service police cars blocked the driveways, O'Connell had no choice but to comply. The shut down lasted a week. (Speaking of cognitive dissonance: Tea Partiers, who fervently wanted the government shut down, rallied behind a concessionaire who defied the order to shut down. It's head-spinning time in the mountains!)

O'Connell gets high marks for his management of the inn:

As the inn’s concessionaire, O’Connell has won contracts to keep running the place until 2024; swapped the restaurant’s canned food for quality, local fare; and implemented numerous green upgrades—from solar panels to tankless water heaters—while adding amenities like Wi-Fi. The inn gets rave reviews and was voted the Best National Park Lodge in the country by the readers of USA Today in 2015. [WNC Magazine]

Madison Cawthorn

So -- just trying to keep up with Republican politics in the 11th CD -- three personalities at least will probably appear on the Republican primary ballot in 2022:

Incumbent Madison Cawthorn, the neo-maxi zoom dweebie we've come to know

Wendy Nevarez, from Asheville, a Navy veteran we profiled here (and who we think has zero chance of winning a Republican primary)

Bruce O'Connell, notorious hotelier with an axe to grind and a good reputation among Tea Partiers