Wiley Nickel Jumps; Is There Water in the Pool?

 

Wiley Nickel applauding Roy Cooper
in earlier days

Back in January, ex-Congressman Wiley Nickel, who's been itching to run for the US Senate against Thom Tillis, told reporter Bryan Anderson that he wouldn't want to run in a primary against the much better known and frankly more politically formidable ex-Governor Roy Cooper. Don't know what's happened to change that, but yesterday Nickel announced his campaign for Senate, and Cooper is still "considering."

Cooper will be the instant frontrunner if and when he announces a campaign against Tillis. Maybe Nickel is trying to flush Cooper out, but will he graciously step aside when Cooper announces, or will he insist on going through defeat in a primary?

Politico reported:

“I have absolutely nothing but good things to say about former Governor Roy Cooper,” Nickel said. “My focus is Thom Tillis, who is voting over and over with Donald Trump on disastrous policies that are going to harm North Carolina.”

A person directly familiar with Cooper’s thinking granted anonymity to speak about private conversations said the governor is still “actively considering the decision to run” and he’ll decide after he completes his Harvard University fellowship later this spring. “Announcements by other potential candidates will not have an impact on his decision,” the person added.

 

Anderson Clayton Makes an Endorsement, Anita Earls Launches Reelection Bid, and Wiley Nickel Acts the Gentleman

 

A. NC Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton has endorsed Ben Wikler to head the DNC:

B. NC Supreme Court Associate Justice Anita Earls has begun raising money for what is expected to be a fierce reelection fight in 2026. Her new website went live on January 9th.

C. Former NC Congressman Wiley Nickel, whose district was gerrymandered to guarantee a Republican would win, decided against running for his 13th CD seat (now occupied by Republican Brad Knott). Instead, he announced that he would run for Thom Tillis's U.S. Senate seat in 2026. On December 15, he filed a statement of candidacy with the FEC.

Ex-Governor Roy Cooper has pointedly told reporters that his own candidacy for Tillis's seat is definitely "on the table," though he hasn't announced anything concrete yet. But Wiley Nickel, knowing that the much better known Cooper would beat him in a primary, has told Bryan Anderson that he's "waiting in the wings and developing something of a contingency plan should Cooper decide not to run."

Wise move.

Oppo Research Coming for Democrats

 

For hardcore politicos, the ones especially with a disturbingly microscopic interest in North Carolina politics, Marshall Terry's interview with Bryan Anderson about the skill and practice of "opposition research" is a really informative read. It was done for WFAE, Charlotte's NPR radio station. Anderson previously wrote a piece for The Assembly, "Oppo Man," about Charles Hellwig, a self-described "right wing nut" who wants the most conservative person to win any race he signs on to help. Hellwig was the operative who exposed Cal Cunningham's sexual adventures before the 2020 election. He's very proud of it.

So WFAE interviewer Anderson got Hellwig to spill beans on who Hellwig is currently assisting, or planning to assist, through the 2024 elections:

Erin Pare

*Erin Paré, Republican House member from Wake County (Dist. 37), the last surviving Republican to represent any Wake County district in either House or Senate. She beat Democrat Sydney Batch in 2020 and held on to the seat in 2022 by a healthy 3 points. According to press accounts, she was very active on shaping the new anti-abortion laws and was one of the "moderate" Republican women who kept the ban to 12 weeks rather than 6. She has just announced her candidacy for the U.S. Congress, for CD13, the seat currently occupied by Wiley Nickel. She came out of the gate sounding very much like the darling of a right-wing nut: "I won’t stand by while radical liberals ruin our economy, allow crime to run rampant on our streets, and indoctrinate our children. I have stood up to the woke mob here in NC and I’ll do the same in Washington! Join us - let's stop the radical Left!" So now Charles Hellwig will be digging into Wiley Nickel like a mealworm.

*Jon Hardister, who's giving up his House seat (Dist. 59) (and a powerful role as chief Republican whip) to run in 2024 for labor commissioner. He's considered a dishonest snake for being the prime operative in the budget veto override ambush pulled off by Speaker Tim Moore early on the morning of September 11, 2019. The Democrat so far in the race for Labor Commissioner: Braxton Winston II, a Charlotte city councilman. He'll no doubt present a colorful target for Hellwig's oppo research.

*Fred Von Canon, a veteran also-ran who's now signing on for a Congressional race in CD1. He ran twice unsuccessfully against Terence Everitt for the District 35 House seat. Before Von Canon can face incumbent Democrat Donald Davis in November, he must get through a possibly nasty primary with Sandy Smith, a Republican businesswoman from eastern North Carolina. She's the MAGA flamethrower who has lost a CD1 race twice in 2020 and 2022. You might expect a man like Hellwig to gravitate to the much more conservative Smith, but the other part of his druthers in a Republican candidate -- the most conservative -- is the kicker, "who can conceiveably win." Hellwig apparently doesn't think Sandy Smith can beat Don Davis.

 

The NC Congressional Races, 2022

 

We now have seven Democrats representing North Carolina in the US Congress, seven of 14, so we improved our numbers there and helped blunt Democratic losses in other states (like in Florida, where -- yikes! -- there is officially no intelligent life surviving).

Don Davis

CD1 -- Democrat Don Davis comfortably beat the bullying Trumpist Sandy Smith by 11,600 votes for the open seat once held by the venerable G.K. Butterfield.

CD2 -- Democrat Deborah Ross easily held on to her seat.

CD3 -- Republican incumbent Greg Murphy easily buried his Democratic opponent.

CD4 -- Democrat Valerie Foushee easily won David Price's open seat.

CD5 -- Republican Virginia Foxx ... don't get me started.

CD6 -- Democratic incumbent Kathy Manning won reelection with 53.75% of the vote.

CD7 -- Republican incumbent David Rouzer easily put away Democrat Charles Graham, who had one of the best introductory candidate videos, produced by Frank Eaton while Graham was planning to run against Dan Bishop in CD9, but new gerrymandering did him in there.

CD8 -- Republican Dan Bishop, a male Virginia Foxx, is now elected to be a jerk to infinity and beyond.

CD9 -- Republican incumbent Richard Hudson easily won reelection.

CD10 -- Republican incumbent Patrick McHenry took 72% of the vote.

CD11 -- Republican Chuck Edwards is now permanently (probably) a D.C. fixture, beating Jasmine Beach-Ferara. It wasn't even close.

Wiley Nickel

CD12 -- Democratic incumbent Alma Adams easily beat Madison Cawthorn clone Tyler Lee, who apparently believes he's on a mission from God.

CD13 -- For Ted Budd's old House seat, Democrat Wiley Nickel beat the other Madison Cawthorn clone, Bo Hines, by over 7,000 votes. Hines and his patron Donald Trump were counting on that red wave, which didn't arrive for him. Maybe Hines can now go seek an actual job.

CD14 -- For the brand new 14th, state Sen. Jeff Jackson easily rolled over his Republican challenger. Can't help thinking he would maybe have won that Senate seat this year.

The Human Cost of a New Map

 

You should already know that Democratic Congressman G.K. Butterfield, who's served in the US House representing the (old) CD1 since the election of 2004, saw his residence moved into the new 2nd, which he recognized would be next to impossible for a Democrat to win. So he's retiring. “North Carolina is the battleground,” Butterfield told The N&O Friday. “I’ve looked at all of this and weighed all of the circumstances and I’ve just decided that I don’t want to run on that map that is gerrymandered. That is unfair ... This map is the most partisan and racially gerrymandered I have ever seen. It is extreme. Every political party pushes the envelope a little with redistricting but this is extreme to have 11 Republican seats out of 14. On a good day 10 out of 14 seats is unlawful, unconstitutional and undemocratic,” Butterfield said.

Meanwhile, former state Sen. Erica Smith, who lost the US Senate primary to Cal Cunningham in 2020 and was an announced candidate again for the Richard Burr Senate seat in 2022, has left the Senate race to run in the new 2nd CD. She wasn't getting any traction in the Senate race. Maybe she can flip what has become a much more Republican district. DavesRedistricting.org scores it 65% Republican, 33% Democratic, and 68.8% white.

Democratic candidate Richard Watkins, a political novice but an accomplished scientist, has also left the US Senate race, where he was completely overshadowed by Cheri Beasley and Jeff Jackson, and says he will now run for Congress in the new 6th CD, where the dean of liberal Democrats David Price has announced his retirement. The new 6th is one of the "safe" Democratic districts, where there's already a pile-on of new candidates. State Sen. Wiley Nickel announced first, followed by Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, a Muslim woman who made a big splash, followed by state Sen. Valerie Foushee, who instantly became a front-runner.

Former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker, a Republican who has been getting nowhere in the Republican primary for Richard Burr's Senate seat (despite or because of the endorsement by Madison Cawthorn), is rumored to be launching a 7th District race, where state Rep. Jon Hardister, also a Republican, is also considering a run. That's the district where football star and Yale graduate Bo Hines ("the educated Madison Cawthorn"), who once upon a time in the recent past said he was going to challenge Virginia Foxx, has finally landed his nascent congressional campaign. He's a Trumper. The new 7th CD is 78% Republican.

An Exciting Democratic Primary Shaping Up in NC Senate District 16

North Carolina Senate District 16 was one of those redrawn districts ordered by the courts, and it's essentially a newly created district and an open seat in western Wake County (city of Cary) and considered "strong Democratic," according to the ratings of the NC Free Enterprise Foundation.

Two highly qualified Democrats have filed for the primary election on May 8th:

Wiley Nickel

Democrat Wiley Nickel, a former Obama staffer and an attorney, was first out of the gate, announcing back in May 2017. He has both a website and a Facebook page. Nickel describes himself as a progressive Democrat and "believes it’s time to focus on strengthening our public schools, creating high paying jobs, expanding access to affordable healthcare and protecting our environment. Wiley will lead the fight to protect a woman’s right to choose, push for stronger gun control laws and implement independent redistricting reform that takes the power to draw new legislative districts out of the hands of politicians." He graduated from Tulane with a degree in political science in 1998 and joined Vice President Al Gore's advance team and traveled with him to events during the presidential campaign of 2000. Following that campaign he earned his law degree from Pepperdine University in California. He joined the Obama campaign in 2008 and spent three years as part of President Obama's national advance team. He left the Obama administration in 2011 and started his own law firm in Cary, specializing in criminal defense. He's married with two children. Running for the NC Senate, he has his focus on ending the Republican supermajority that has thwarted Governor Roy Cooper at every turn and which has passed extreme laws which have been overturned in the courts (at every turn). The dictatorship of Senate President Phil Berger must be stopped! Nickel has been endorsed by 2016 Senate candidate Deborah Ross.

Luis Toledo and his family

Democrat Luis Toledo, the son of an Hispanic immigrant, has an inspiring story of upward mobility at a time that Hispanic immigrants have become a target of presidential prejudice and Republican hostility. Luis Toledo has both a website and a Facebook page. "He was raised by a single-mother, never met his father, and is the first in his family to graduate from college where he earned degrees in business administration, cybersecurity, and public administration." He has worked in both the federal government (Department of State) and North Carolina government (as an assistant state auditor). He was born in Houston, Tex., where his mother struggled and depended on food stamps and the social safety net to keep her head only slightly above water. She picked up "their few belongings" and moved the family, ending up in the small western rural town of Marion, where Luis attended the public schools and graduated from high school. He did well in school, opting to take college-level classes at the local community college while still in McDowell High School. He also worked two part time jobs. After the attacks of 9/11, Luis joined the military and spent four years on active duty in the Air Force. After earning a graduate degree in public administration, he joined the Obama Administration as a Presidential Management Fellow and worked in the State Department under Secretary Hillary Clinton. In 2011, Luis and his family moved back to North Carolina, and he took a job working for State Auditor Beth Wood. "In January 2017, Luis joined the North Carolina Justice Center – a statewide nonprofit dedicated to economic and social justice and eliminating poverty across the state. As a public policy analyst, Luis conducts non-partisan research on the state and federal budget and assesses the role of public investments in our communities. His work informs major public debates and helps shape policy for the benefit of all North Carolinians."

Few Democratic primaries in North Carolina in 2018 encapsulate the progressive talent pouring into elective politics like this primary race in Wake County!

Republican Paul Smith ... oh, yeah, there's a Republican also filed to run for this seat, and maybe it's the curse of the last name, its commonness, or a sign of how strongly Democratic this district is going to be, but I can't find him anywhere ... no website, no Facebook page, no web presence at all.