Cheri Beasley's New Campaign Manager

 

Travis Brimm

Since August 9th (when Senate candidate Cheri Beasley's top campaign and money managers quit), we've been wondering "Whither, Judge Beasley," and as of Friday, we have a better idea, because on August 27th, veteran political operative Travis Brimm announced on Twitter that he was coming "back home" to manage the Beasley campaign.

Trimm's work for Democratic candidates goes back almost ten years, and he's had his share of soul-testing defeats (Dan McCready, 2018; Richard "Otter" Bew, 2019, written about on this blog). The "advisory" role he had with McCready (according to Linkedin) raises my interest, since Brimm's political instincts might slide toward the militantly middle-of-the-road, which can become a worry for generating voter excitement. 

(Commenters have already noticed how Beasley intends to play it -- bland, non-threatening, moderate.)

More recently, Brimm was Joe Biden's state director for his 2020 Democratic primary win, and Brimm went on immediately from that to manage Democrat Ben Ray Luhan's successful 2020 US Senate win in New Mexico.

In other words, Brimm is successful enough to know exactly who he's going to be working for in 2022: Mississippi Governor Ned Lamont has already chosen Brimm to manage his reelection campaign. (Brimm's a native of Mississippi.)

We'll hide and watch what happens now.

Retired Marine Scott Cooper Running to Replace Republican George Holding in Congress

Glad to see so many retired Marines announcing for Congress in 2020!

Scott Cooper retired from the Marine Corps in 2013 after doing a few things:

Twenty years of service specializing in operational leadership, strategic planning and communication, air power, nation-building, and cross-cultural liaisons at the executive level. 

• Squadron commanding officer. Deployed 200-person squadron to Afghanistan, flying in combat. Squadron recognized with Phoenix Award as the #1 unit for maintenance readiness within the Dept of Defense. 

• Strategic analyst and advisor – served as speech writer to the Marine Corps three-star Deputy Commandant for Aviation, responsible for analyzing long-range alternative future security environments and recommending future aviation force structures. 

• Over four years of international service in eight overseas deployments throughout the world. Significant experience in inter-agency coordination and overseas development. Led initial military team into Djibouti in 2002, establishing key relationships with Djiboutian civilians and military. Led U.S. military and embassy planning team efforts in 2002 contingency plans for American citizen evacuations in Pakistan, Jordan, and Egypt. 

• Deployed to Fallujah, Iraq during key tribal engagement efforts in Al Anbar Province, Iraq, the “turning point” in the campaign. 

• Flew Iraqi no-fly zone (Northern and Southern Watch), Bosnian no-fly zone (Deny Flight), Kosovo Air Campaign (Allied Force), Iraq Campaign (Iraqi Freedom – three tours), and Afghanistan Campaign (Enduring Freedom). 

• Key leader and technical expert in the Counter-Improvised Explosive Device efforts in Iraq. Led inter-service and inter-agency effort that achieved an over 50 percent reduction in fatalities in 2007.

Okay. You've got our attention, Colonel.

His philosophical outlook is high-minded (if a tad Little-Mary-Sunshine-ish). He writes on his Facebook page:

I’m proud of my 20 years in the Marine Corps, especially when I look back at all those who gave so much for our country. What strikes me about that experience is that no one asked where you were from, who your parents were, or how much money they made. No one cared about what religion you were, or with what political party you identified....

The last couple of years, it feels like we are more divided than ever. Somehow, the idea has taken hold that those who don’t share your political beliefs are your enemy. I couldn’t disagree more. We all share the same proud title, the most important one in a democracy – citizen.

He's good friends with Richard "Otter" Bew who ran (alas, unsuccessfully) in the Democratic primary for the special election in NC-3. Maybe Cooper's race in the NC 2nd Congressional District will turn winner next year. The "2020 Tracker" at PoliticsNC.com rates the district "competitive."

Scott Cooper is challenging Republican incumbent George Holding, who has played a potted plant in Congress.

The Wrong Man Won the Democratic Primary in the NC-3 Special Election, But On the Other Hand, Who Cares?

Allen Thomas

Allen Thomas won the Democratic primary yesterday in the NC-3 special election with slightly over 50% of the vote over his nearest rival, ex-Marine fighter pilot Richard Bew. I was pulling for Bew. Since filing for office, Thomas, who's a strongly pro-business Democrat, has been tarred by a bad audit report on the North Carolina Global TransPark. He was executive director of the TransPark during the period of the audit but stepped down to run for this office.

Oh well. The NC-3 has never been considered anything but "safe Republican."

Naturally, with 17 Republicans running in their primary yesterday, there was bound to be a run-off on July 9th. Two medical doctors finished 1st and 2nd in that primary, with 22.54% and 15.44 percent of the vote respectively -- Dr. Greg Murphy of Greenville, a currently serving member of the NC House, and Dr. Joan Perry of Kinston. They'll face off in a second primary.

Perry is a big anti-abortion pro forced breeding Republican pediatrician who had big-dollar support from the Susan B. Anthony List as well as Winning for Women Action Fund (WFW AF), a Super PAC focused on electing more conservative women to office. She'll probably lose to Murphy in the 2nd primary.

I confess that I have lost all interest in this particular special election.

When All You Got to Run on Is a Wall

The primary for the special election in NC-3, Walter Jones's old district, comes on April 30th. Early voting has been going on since April 10th.

The Club for Growth has just endorsed Celeste Cairns, a certified public accountant and a first-time political candidate, for the seat, which may mean a lot, especially if the Club is planning a media blitz for her. She's pretty unknown compared to others in the race like Michele Nix, former vice chairwoman of the NCGOP, and current sitting members of the NC General Assembly Michael Speciale, Greg Murphy, and Phil Shepard. There are 17 total Republicans running.

Cairns is stepping forward as a Trumpist with this TV ad:




On the Democratic side, there's been a pretty energetic race between Richard Bew and Allen Thomas, though Democratic performance so far in the primary does not suggest a Blue surge coming.

Candidate Filing Has Closed for the NC-3 Special Election

Some 17 Republicans (gasp!), six Democrats, two Libertarians, and one member of the Constitution Party have filed for the Congressional seat that was left vacant by the death of Rep. Walter B. Jones.

Richard Bew

A run-off primary in July seems almost inevitable, especially on the Republican side. On the Democratic side, we've already paid attention to Richard Bew, who might be the frontrunner, and to a couple of his opponents for the Democratic nomination, Ike Johnson and Dana Outlaw. Here is what I can find out about the other two:

Earnest T. Reeves -- Reeves is a familiar figure in eastern North Carolina. He ran in the Democratic primary for US Senate in 2014 and lost to Kay Hagan. In November 2015 he ran for mayor of Greenville, but was defeated by incumbent Mayor Allen Thomas (about which, see below). Reeves then ran in the Democratic primary for US Senate in March 2016 and lost to Deborah Ross. He also ran in the general election in June 2016 for the 3rd Congressional District seat against incumbent Republican Walter Jones, and lost. In April 2017 he was one of two finalists to replace David Hammond on the Pitt County Board of Commissioners but lost to Ann Huggins. In November 2017 he ran again for mayor of Greenville, but was defeated by city council member P.J. Connelly. He ran in the Democratic primary in 2018 for the NC House, got only 799 votes, and lost to Kandie Smith who went on to win the seat last November. He's a retired United States Army Communications Officer. According to his website, Reeves is "a disabled and combat zone veteran who currently serves as an entrepreneur, mentor, advisor, counselor, and advocate for the elderly and people in need on a case-by-case basis."

Allen Thomas -- Thomas was elected mayor in Greenville for three terms before resigning during his third term in June of 2017 to become executive director of the Global Transpark in Kinston (which should mean he has a leg up for fundraising). He got some star treatment when he announced on Thursday and would appear to be Richard Bew's chief competitor for the nomination. He's polished.





Full disclosure: I'm a contributor to the Richard Bew campaign.

One of Our Two Spectator Sports in 2019

As of yesterday, there were 11 Republicans signed up to run in the April 30th primary for the special election in the NC-3. (We discussed the leading Democrat, "Otter" Bew, yesterday, down-column.) The Republican scrum includes some hair-raising personalities, and that primary will be worth watching, but two third-party candidates also caught our eye because they'll be on the final ballot and will inevitably drain some Republican support in the final contest for the seat.

(Incidentally, the number of Republicans in that primary seems pretty certain to force a run-off -- if no one gets to 30%. A second primary will be scheduled for July 9th, with the final contest pushed to September 10th. Then whoever wins the special election will have to turn around in early December and file for reelection in 2020.)

Greg Holt, Constitution Party. Ran for Craven County Commission in the Republican primary of 2018 and lost by almost 15 points. After losing that primary, he switched to the Constitution Party and ran for the same County Commish seat that fall and got almost 23% of the vote. Holt, plus a weak Democratic candidate, could not stop the winning Republican from garnering over 50% of the vote. Holt is owner of Cravin-a-Cup, an office, janitorial, bottled water, and coffee supply business in New Bern. Holt was elected in 2017 to First Craven Sanitary District, a Craven County water authority. He's a member of Coastal Carolina Taxpayers Association, a Tea Party type group, and in an interview, Holt came out strongly against Sharia law in the US, for Christian prayer in schools, for concealed carry in schools, and for Trump's wall.

Shannon W. Bray, Libertarian. He's 46 years old and a cyber security practitioner. He has a website dedicated to Microsoft products (branding himself "a Microsoft Certified Master") and a Twitter account (@NoIdentity29) that is dedicated exclusively to cyber security. Confusingly, Bray's LinkedIn page says he's running for Congress in 2020, but in Rep. George Holdings' Second District, so perhaps he has long-range plans for breaking into politics. He lives in Apex in Wake County, which means he's running out of the 3rd District.

UPDATE
Jerry C. Thompson of Hampstead in Pender County, an unaffiliated voter, is circulating a petition to get himself on the ballot in the NC-3 special election. According to Gerry Cohen, he needs 7,551 signatures by April 30, a fairly steep hill to climb, especially as Thompson lives in the 7th Congressional District, not the 3rd.

Could This Ex-Marine Put the NC-3 Special Election in Play for Democrats?

Richard "Otter" Bew

Retired Marine Col. Richard “Otter” Bew announced yesterday that he will be running in the Democratic primary on April 30th in the first step toward running in the special election in NC-3 on July 9th to fill out the term of Rep. Walter B. Jones, who died last month. (News about other Democrats in this primary, included below.)

Bew completed the Platoon Leaders Course in Quantico in 1988, received a degree in Philosophy from Lehigh University in 1989, and was commissioned a Second Lieutenant of Marines. He became a naval aviator in 1991.

He retired from the Marines last fall after 29 years in the service. He served in Afghanistan, Iraq, Bosnia, and Serbia, and he already knows some of the doorways and secret knocks on Capitol Hill, having served as deputy legislative assistant to Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He also served as a legislative aide to the Commandant of the Marine Corps, and he earned a master's degree in international public policy at Johns Hopkins.

In other words, he's a richly experienced, smart dude to try for a seat in Congress, and he does remind us of the many ex-military personnel who ran strong campaigns last fall as Democrats, from Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania to Amy McGrath in Kentucky.

"Otter" Bew was watching those races too: “When I saw folks like that step out and run really good campaigns and do so with a different kind of dialogue — one that’s inclusive — and stay on target, the thing that I took most from that is inspiration that this can be done,” Bew said.

He's sensing a seismic shift in the voting public, a change that produced last fall the largest turnover of Congressional seats since Watergate, and even a deeply red district like the NC Third, which gave DJT 60% of the vote in 2016, can produce surprises, especially in a special election. “I got strong feedback that folks who normally would have opposed a candidate from the Democratic Party are more open to it now,” Bew said. “You have to really be ignoring some clear evidence of how [the US is] viewed in the world and how we’re performing in the world to still be sticking — with the same level of your conviction — with your vote from two years ago.”

There's some wishful thinking in that assessment, no doubt, but there's also a creeping reality.

Bew says he won't accept corporate PAC money. He puts health care issues at the top of what motivates him for office, and he acknowledges climate change as a major defining problem going forward.. 

He has professional help, obviously, judging from his website. 

Other Democrats in the April 30th Primary

Filing ends this Friday, so there may be additional candidates by Saturday, but at the moment:

Isaiah "Ike" Johnson, also a retired (1999) U.S. Marine who mentors students in Onslow County Schools. Johnson is African-American and ran unsuccessfully last fall for the NC House District 14 seat, receiving 41% of the vote in that race.

Dana Outlaw, New Bern’s mayor (since 2013) and the owner of a self-storage business and real estate consulting and appraisal business. 

Ollie Nelson, another retired African-American Marine and a Jacksonville pastor. 

Republicans Also Competing to Replace Walter Jones in Congress

There are currently at least four, one more wacko-conservative than the next (Michael Speciale ... really!). We'll wait to see who wins the primary in April before we waste our time researching all of them.

Footnote

If no candidate in either party primary fails to win 30% of the vote on April 30th, the 2nd primary will fall on July 9th, with the special election proper pushed to September 10.