All Eyes on These Democrats in NC's "Bellwether County," New Hanover

 

In 2016 Watauga County was designated a "bellwether county" -- one of ten across the nation in that year's battleground states -- because Watauga's political history suggested we more often than not voted for the eventual winner of the presidential race. D'oh. We lost our status in 2016 because Watauga went roguishly for Hillary instead of for the winner, Twitterman. 

So much for an alpha sheep decked with a bell who leads the other sheep.

But we're delighted to see New Hanover County listed again as a bellwether county. Not its first time. The Associated Press named it a bellwether in 2016, along with Watauga: "New Hanover County was chosen because Republicans and Democrats are split almost evenly in Wilmington and the surrounding area, and the number of independents registered here has risen so much since the last presidential election that they now outnumber both parties."

Now for 2020, New Hanover gets the honor again in a list compiled by Dave Wasserman, House editor at the Cook Political Report. The New York Times published it as "opinion," and it's pretty damn interesting. Haven't investigated all the other counties on the new list -- I'll get around to them -- but New Hanover rises in the east today like the sun, and I can't take any more light at the moment. Several men and women from New Hanover, either already in the General Assembly (some flipped their seats in 2018), or are trying to get there, fill my eyeballs today -- the potential and the odds for Democrats' taking back the General Assembly in 2020. 

Here's a primer:

NC House Districts

Dist. 18 -- Deb Butler (incumbent Democrat), one of the most famous progressive warriors in the General Assembly, challenged by Republican Warren Kennedy. Bitzer rates the district "Safe Democratic."

 

Dist. 19 (only part of New Hanover, with a larger slice of New Brunswick to the south-- problematic for a Democratic win minus a Blue Wave) -- Open seat. Democrat Marcia Morgan is being challenged by Republican Charlie Miller. Quoting myself from January of this year:

Morgan is a 74-year-old Baby Boomer born in 1946. She was an educator, became a career Army officer who retired as a colonel. She taught ROTC and did two tours at the Pentagon including a staff position with the Army Chief of Staff. She says, "I have thoroughly enjoyed retirement and the freedom to do as I please, but the current political environment has challenged me to step forward once again. I do not have a background in politics, but I DO have a strong sense of service to this community and a demonstrated ability to accomplish difficult tasks. I believe we have a commitment to improve our economy, provide equal opportunities for all and protect our environment – and one of the fundamental ways to accomplish those things is through quality education." She details her career, which took her all over the world for the Army, on her website.

Morgan has been endorsed by Lillian's List. She came within 883 votes of beating Ted Davis in 2018 in the old District 19. The last fundraising report I've seen suggested a good effort on her part for 2020.

 

 

Dist. 20 -- Ted Davis, incumbent Republican, formerly in the 19th but drawn out of that district and into Holly Grange's district. The double-bunking of incumbent Republicans was certainly part of Holly Grange's decision to opt out of reelection and run for governor against Dan Forest instead (a remarkably empty gesture in today's NCGOP). Democrat Adam Ericson, a public high school teacher, is challenging Davis. FlipNC.org analysis of the prospect: "Gov. Cooper lost the newly constituted NC-H20 by just 5 points in 2016, and the NC House race was just as close in 2018. The pool of left-leaning voters who stayed home in NC-H20 in 2018 was about 14 points more left-leaning than the folks who came out to the polls, and the great news is that 2020 primary turnout was up 30% over 2016!"

 

NC Senate

Dist. 9 -- Harper Peterson (incumbent Democrat: elected 2018), challenged by Republican attorney Mike Lee. Rated a "Toss Up" by Bitzer. Peterson beat Lee in 2018, so this is a rematch. Fundraising on both sides has been eye-popping, though Lee was edging Peterson slightly in the $$ race the last time I looked. Peterson is a former mayor of Wilmington and has been very visible in the controversy surrounding the pollution of the Cape Fear River.

 

U.S. House

Dist. 7 -- David Rouzer, incumbent Republican, challenged by Democrat Christopher Ward. Considered a safe Republican district because of all that rural real estate north of Wilmington, Republican counties stretching all the way to Johnston County just south of Wake.

https://www.chriswardforcongress.com

The Elections of March: The Battle for the NCH19 Open Seat

When North Carolina House District 19 (southern New Hanover County, with the suburbs of Wilmington and the beach towns of Carolina Beach and Kure and Fort Fisher and a large swath of rural Brunswick County south of the Cape Fear River, including South Port and Bolivia) was redrawn in the most recent court-ordered redistricting, the incumbent Republican House member Ted Davis got drawn out of his own district. He's now running in District 20, which Rep. Holly Grange has given up to run for governor in the Republican March primary.

So two Republicans have filed for the open District 19 seat, along with two Democrats, one of them well known to us because of her unsuccessful but close race for the seat in 2018.

Democrat Marcia Morgan
Morgan is a 74-year-old Baby Boomer born in 1946. She was an educator, became a career Army officer who retired as a colonel. She taught ROTC and did two tours at the Pentagon including a staff position with the Army Chief of Staff. She says, "I have thoroughly enjoyed retirement and the freedom to do as I please, but the current political environment has challenged me to step forward once again. I do not have a background in politics, but I DO have a strong sense of service to this community and a demonstrated ability to accomplish difficult tasks. I believe we have a commitment to improve our economy, provide equal opportunities for all and protect our environment – and one of the fundamental ways to accomplish those things is through quality education." She details her career, which took her all over the world for the Army, on her website.

Morgan has been endorsed by Lillian's List. She came within 883 votes of beating Ted Davis in 2018 in the old District 19, and she might be considered the automatic frontrunner in this primary, but she's now got large Brunswick County real estate added to her district, and they don't know her yet. Reviewing her campaign infrastructure, I have the impression that she's coasting a little on her 2018 campaign, and I'd like to see new and more evidence that she's going strong for this primary.

Democrat James Dawkins
Dawkins is a 35-year-old Millennial born in 1985 and a novice politician, but he has the full-fledged presence on the Web to suggest he's really making the effort. He's a musician who lives in Southport. He's doing local radio interviews, he's very active on Twitter and Facebook, and he's challenged Marcia Morgan to a debate. That's one sure way to attract attention when you're relatively unknown. He also got an almost fawning write-up in DemCast, which to be fair was profiling him when he was the only announced Democratic candidate in the old District 17. But at the moment he's much more active on social media than Marcia Morgan.

He offers a full panoply of progressive policy positions, including the legalization of recreational marijuana.

Republican David A. Perry
Perry is 54 years old and ran for the District 19 House seat in 2018 as a Libertarian and got 3.8% of the vote. He's big on guns. He arrived in Carolina in 2012 to live in Carolina Beach and work at Corning's Wilmington plant as a software engineer. He had been a Reagan Republican until 9/11 when the neo-con Republican policies of bigger government and international meddling made him a Ron Paul Libertarian. He has since repented:

I soon realized that while there was large contingent of like-minded folks within the Libertarian Party, there was also a large contingent of anarchists and extremists. A contingent who would never agree to anything that fell short of their ideology of eradicating or virtually eliminating government all together. I have always felt that while principles are extremely important, we need to be “realistic” about where we are, while at the same time being “optimistic” about where we are going.

Curiously, he doesn't embrace Donald Trump or even mention his name on his website.

Republican Charlie Miller
Miller is 53 years old and lives in Southport, where he was born and raised. He was Chief Deputy in the Brunswick County Sheriff’s Office, first beginning in 1987 under Sheriff John Carr Davis. He worked his way through the ranks of the Office and resigned in 2001 to work with Progress Energy as a Nuclear Security Specialist. He returned to the Sheriff’s Office in May 2008 as Chief Deputy when Sheriff Ingram took Office.

He was subsequently elected to the Brunswick County Board of Education in 2006 and re-elected in 2010 and again in 2018 to four-year terms. He has a Facebook page but no other web presence that I've found.

Is Marcia Morgan Considering Another Race Against Ted Davis in NCHouse District 19?

Marcia Morgan

NC House District 19 includes much of south Wilmington and all of Fort Fisher, Kure Beach, Carolina Beach, and Wrightsville Beach. The incumbent Republican Ted Davis Jr. had been a New Hanover County commissioner until he was appointed to the seat in 2012. At the time of his appointment, Ted Davis was most famous to us for voting to turn down a grant of $8,899 from the North Carolina state government for "family planning" supplies and services, particularly contraceptives for young women who wanted or needed them. Ted Davis said at the time, "If these young women are being responsible and didn't have the sex to begin with, we wouldn't have this problem to begin with."

That pretty much tells you everything you really need to know about not-quite-extinct dinosaurs.

Retired Army Colonel Marcia Morgan ran against Ted Davis in 2018 and came within 883 votes of beating Davis. I profiled her on this site in January 2018.

She would seem to be a natural pick to try again (though I confess I haven't met her and don't know what sort of campaign she ran ... but I tend to trust those 2018 numbers, since Ted Davis had not previously had Democratic opposition when he ran for reelection).

Morgan's Twitter account has lain idle since the election last November until a single tweet on August 7:

Ted Davis hasn't had time to review HB 86 to reduce gun violence, yet they have wasted legislators' time and taxpayers' money by calling sessions for 25 days that last for only 20 minutes to discuss trivial issues. What did they do the other hours in those days? #MakeTimeTed

8:31 AM · Aug 7, 2019·Twitter Web App

If she's beginning to bestir herself as a political tweeter, might an election announcement for 2020 be far behind?

More New Hopes on the Horizon

Marcia Morgan, running in the 19th NC House District

Marcia Morgan

District includes Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, Wrightsville Beach and parts of Wilmington, all within New Hanover County

Incumbent Republican: Ted Davis Jr., an attorney, originally appointed to the seat in 2012 and reelected to the office since then without Democratic opposition. The most that can be said about him is that he's a seat-warmer who votes as he's told by the bosses.

Democrat Marcia Morgan was an educator, became a career Army officer who retired as a colonel. She taught ROTC and did two tours at the Pentagon including a staff position with the Army Chief of Staff. She says, "I have thoroughly enjoyed retirement and the freedom to do as I please, but the current political environment has challenged me to step forward once again. I do not have a background in politics, but I DO have a strong sense of service to this community and a demonstrated ability to accomplish difficult tasks. I believe we have a commitment to improve our economy, provide equal opportunities for all and protect our environment – and one of the fundamental ways to accomplish those things is through quality education."

If you would like to contribute to Marcia Morgan's campaign: https://www.electmarciamorgan.com/contact

Terence Everitt, running in the 35th NC House District

Terence Everitt

District includes the town of Wake Forest and some northeastern suburbs of Wake County

Incumbent Republican: Chris Malone has served on the Wake Forest town board, the Wake County Board of Education, and was elected to his current seat in the GA in 2012. He was criticized for inventing a tax increase lie (rated by PolitiFact as "Pants on Fire") about his Democratic opponent in the 2016 election, Terence Everitt, who came very close to defeating Malone. Malone famously voted for HB2 and then famously sent out a mailer saying he didn't support it, and he even more famously had a notorious romantic affair with fellow Wake School Board member Debra Goldman which didn't end well. 

Democrat Terence Everitt is challenging Malone for the second time. He lost to Malone in 2016 by just under 3,000 votes. Everitt is a Wake Forest attorney. In 2016, Everitt's top campaign issue was school funding: "We need to fully fund our public schools and pay our teachers a salary that is at a minimum at the national average. Mr. Malone has voted time and again to underfund our schools. Many of our teachers are working two jobs to make ends meet or even leaving the state to find work for better pay. North Carolina has fallen to among the lowest in the nation in per-pupil spending and teacher pay. And yet, year after year, Mr. Malone has voted for budgets that do not adequately fund our local schools -- all while cutting taxes for large out-of- state corporations and millionaires."

Note: Everitt will have at least one Democratic opponent in next May's primary -- Adam Wright, a business entrepreneur (and may the best candidate come out on top!).

If you want to contribute to Terence Everitt's campaign, here's the link (https://act.myngp.com/Forms/8665933539777187328).

Ayoub Ouederni, running in the 105th NC House District

Ayoub Ouederni

District includes neighborhoods in south Charlotte and the towns of Pineville and Weddington

Incumbent Republican: Scott Stone, who was an unsuccessful Charlotte mayoral candidate and who got appointed to the NC House seat in May of 2016 and won his first election in November of 2016. In other words, Stone doesn't have much of a record in the House but appears to be a dutiful foot-soldier for the bosses.

Democrat Ayoub Ouederni is a Charlotte native and is a recent graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill where he was the president of the UNC Muslim Students Association. He would be one of the youngest members of the General Assembly. He became a very outspoken opponent of Trump's Muslim ban last year. Ayoub says, "Our great State has always been home. It has given me my happiest memories, provided me with unparalleled opportunity, and I am forever indebted to my fellow North Carolinians for striving to make this the best state in the Nation. However, we have slowly lost our status as the beacon of the South. Seeing the deterioration of our state institutions has been disheartening. From lowballing our public school teachers and refusing Medicaid expansion, to politicizing our judiciary and disenfranchising minority communities, the state legislature in Raleigh -- the General Assembly -- has refused to set aside partisanship to pursue policies that improve the lives of North Carolinians. I am running for the General Assembly because we need thoughtful leadership and an injection of fresh, new ideas into our politics. Our elected officials must embody our core values of dignity, equality, and respect, and carry the burden that is entrusted onto them with honor and a sense of duty. We need a General Assembly that works proactively to improve the lives of our citizens and strengthen our State."

If you would like to contribute to Ayoub Ouederni, here's your link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ouederni