The Supremes Made Me a Single-Issue Voter

 

With the clarity we've come to expect from him, Sen. Jeff Jackson lays out the potential for November:

Next year in NC: 

1) Our state legislature will convene. 

2) The GOP will pass a bill banning abortion. 

3) The Governor will veto it. 

4) A veto override vote will be held. 

5) Either Dems will have enough members to sustain the veto, or not. 

Those are the stakes this November.

I think I just became "a single-issue voter." And I've got a candidate to vote for.

House District 93

(Watauga, excepting Blue Ridge Precinct, plus Ashe and Alleghany counties)

(Watauga's Blue Ridge Precinct is now in the 87th HD. Thank you, gerrymander. And the Gerrymanderer-in-Chief in the NC House, Destin Hall, is the incumbent Republican of HD87. Democrat Barbara Kirby is running against him)

I remember Ben Massey as the ever-present, early-bird, cheerful-but-firm manager of the Watauga County Farmers Market. That was a few years ago. I thought he did a good job. Then he left Watauga and became president of the Ashe County Farmers Mkt. He and his wife Darleen are fixtures there, selling their own farm produce. They live in Ashe County on a "rural homestead" reclaimed from its dispersal to nine heirs probably because someone died without a will. Ben Massey is running for the House seat, currently held by Republican of Blowing Rock, Ray Pickett.

I met Ben and his campaign manager last night. Formidable team with a clear plan. And with admittedly huge odds against them: NCFree rates the district R+11. That's due, of course, to Destin Hall Hisownself in Caldwell County, taking Blue Ridge Precinct off Ray Pickett's hands and adding very rural Alleghany County to counteract Watauga's Democratic voters. The district has see-sawed between parties when it was just Watauga and Ashe -- Democrats Cullie Tarleton and Ray Russell and Republicans Jonathan Jordan and now Ray Pickett. But the Republicans don't like a seesaw and propped up Pickett with a cinderblock of new Republicans. No more going blue for you, House Seat 93! 

Understanding that the 93rd is uphill all the way, Ben Massey nevertheless has cred already in Ashe, and a formidable Party org in Watauga, and a local history in Alleghany -- dependably Democratic, going back to the Civil War -- that might turn at least purple if Trumpist turnout sags. I know: Alleghany's potential is more of a used to be, but how can you stay in politics without hope?

Massey fits the district, and I like the writing on his website:

Ben is the guy on your road whom everyone depends on. He and his tractor are there to pull the log out of your driveway after a windstorm, and he always remembers to ask about your parent who is recovering from surgery.

...he knows what it means to be a good neighbor. His dad was a Mail Carrier and his mom owned a Dance School. His grandfather was a Deputy Sheriff shot and killed in the line of duty. Ben grew up barning tobacco and working at the local gas station. As a young man seeking to make his own way, he patched together grants, loans and part-time jobs to pay his way through college at UNC-Chapel Hill and graduated as a Physical Therapist.

He retired as the executive director of the state’s PT licensure board, administering the state laws for over 13,000 physical therapists and physical therapist assistants in North Carolina.

Here's a nugget: He got inducted into “The Order of the Long Leaf Pine” by Governor Pat McCrory "for significant contributions to the state and his community through exemplary services and exceptional accomplishments." Many of those accomplishments and awards are listed at the bottom of his bio page.

He talked last night about the importance of Roe and said he had actually decided to run way back in May 2021 when the Supreme Court first announced that it was taking the Mississippi abortion case, now known as Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Org. He will be an unflagging advocate for women's rights, as Republicans move toward taking charge of uteruses and mandating pregnancies.

The Future Made Clear

 

The NCGOP Has an Itch It Intends To Scratch

 

The natural born bully who wants to be the next governor of North Carolina, so he can sign a law mandating pregnancy for any woman loose enough to get pregnant -- I'm talking about Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, yes. You think he ain't dancing a jig over the 6-3 Supreme Court vote to axe Roe? He can't wait. “I am overjoyed with the decision by our Supreme Court," said Robinson. "For decades we have been praying for a day like today, and it is finally here."

He quickly added -- probably because he knows that we all know now --"I have experienced the pain of abortion in my own life and know the long-term effects it can have on families." Because a comment he had made on social media in 2012 -- long before he knew the pleasures of tickling the prejudices of white men -- amounted to an admission that he had paid for an abortion for his then girlfriend over three decades earlier. “I’m not saying abortion is wrong cause I said so it’s wrong cause God says so. It’s wrong when others do it and it was wrong when I paid for it to be done to my unborn child in 1989.”

Maybe Robinson had been talking directly to God, and vice versa -- I won't argue it couldn't happen -- but he's making it up that The Word of God, the Bible, says even one word against abortion. That's number one. The mandate-pregnancy crowd is forever projecting their ideology onto Scripture and assuming that God would have said it if He hadn't been busy that day. Number two: The complete erasure of Yolanda Hill as another player in the drama and the decision at the time -- if she actually had a voice in the decision -- makes Robinson's "regret" look like a cover for just more bullying.

You cannot escape the psycho-sexual needs of men to control the bodies of their women. Now, with the celestial reasoning of Samuel Alito behind it, the psycho-sexual component expands to include tacit exploitation of those bodies to insure a steady new cohort of workers. That's been one of the arguments, that an absolute ban on abortion will insure a steady supply of babies to grow up and do the work and pay the taxes. And incidentally guarantee the supposed survival of the white race. (Peace to you, Mark Robinson.)

NC House Speaker Tim Moore, after the Roe decision, indicated that when Republicans achieve veto-proof majorities in the two houses of the General Assembly -- they only need three more seats in the House and two in the Senate -- they'll be delighted to follow their leaders over the cliff of no abortion. Even before that, with no veto leverage, Moore promised they won't wait to do their worst: “North Carolinians can also expect pro-life protections to be a top priority of the legislature when we return to our normal legislative session in January” (emphasis added). They'll think of ways to chip around the edges. And they might get help from a handful of anti-abortion Democrats, which will be followed by bad moments for everyone.

But Republicans won't have the support of a majority of the women of North Carolina. The most recent polling I've seen, completed during the second week of June, solicited reactions to the following statement: "The Supreme Court of the United States should overturn Roe v. Wade." Some 8% of women responded "somewhat disagree," but 41% strongly disagreed. Those numbers versus the 27% of women who strongly or somewhat agreed with the statement. Women who want to protect Roe included a substantial portion of Republicans: "Of the 1,100 North Carolina residents polled, 33% identified as Republican, 29% identified as Democrat and 32% identified as independent."

One other problem (but an opportunity for Democratic outreach) ... the disturbing 24% of polled women who said they were "Not sure" about ending Roe. That's almost a quarter of the state's women who seem weirdly detached from the realities, and that has to change.

Now the States Can Mandate Pregnancy

 

The dead eyes of an ideologue

The only thing keeping North Carolina from becoming Mississippi is Roy Cooper and a veto-sustaining minority of Democrats in the North Carolina General Assembly.

That's a fragile bulwark against the darkness unleashed today by The Supremes.

This is the legacy of a total crook who put those three people on the Court.

A Closing Statement for History

 

Tim Moore's House Pisses Off Phil Berger's Senate

 

In a surprising about-face, Phil Berger's NC Senate passed a bill a month ago expanding Medicaid under Obamacare. Yesterday, Tim Moore's House Republicans, rather than signing on to the Senate's bill, rolled out its own bill which calls for more study of the issue and a vote on expansion only after the fall elections.

How did Phil Berger take this?

Seems like Tim Moore handed Democratic NC House candidates an issue, and Phil Berger has shown Democrats how to frame it.

Local Bill H193 Is Kaput

 

Ray Pickett

Issued before 9 a.m. this morning, this bottomline news: Watauga County Commission requests the shelving of that special legislation introduced by Rep. Ray Pickett and will follow the town's UDO in the building of a parking garage, a facility that both parties believe is needed.

Here's the money in the last paragraph:

We have reached a consensus so that the local law will be withdrawn, litigation can be avoided, and consideration of the County’s parking garage project can move forward as speedily as possible consistent with the Town’s development ordinance.

 

The Democrats Who Volunteer

 

First off, I am running because no candidate should go unopposed, much less a 9 term fixture who does nothing to help the bulk of her constituents.

--Democrat Kyle Parrish, talking about Republican incumbent Virginia Foxx 

We were so proud of our sacrificial lambs back in 2018 -- the dozens of Democratic candidates for seats in the NC General Assembly -- all seats up for election, all seats covered by a D on the ballot. It was an achievement, symbolic and energizing, but somewhat wasteful, since dozens of those Democrats were bound to lose in districts so heavily gerrymandered to favor Republicans that even the meter readers are partisan.

That was 2018, the Blue Wave year. The enthusiasm, the willingness to fight in even hopeless battles, produced results -- veto-sustaining Democratic minorities in both houses of the General Assembly, who could support Governor Roy Cooper in his struggles with Berger Moore. Meanwhile, the sacrificial lambs of 2018 have mainly not resurfaced since. Even a symbolic loss stings, and even Anonymous has feelings. Those were heroes for political bravery, and it's a loss if they haven't stayed active with the Party.

This is supposed to be a Red Wave year (though I'm beginning to question that forecast), so Democrats are mainly bunkered up and nervous, and nobody is praising 2022's sacrificial lambs. Or they might be tigers -- I haven't probed deeply enough yet to know. Doesn't much matter. They're running in districts that are, for example, R+9, R+11, R+13, R+16, R+23 (holy shit!). Those are the predictive numbers for House districts 6, 109, 84, 117, and 80, where five Republican incumbents who signed the Wendy Rogers stolen election plan actually have Democratic opponents. (Most of the other 10 Rs who signed that letter are running unopposed.)

Glad those Democrats are running. Hope they recognize their more than symbolic duty to call out the destructive extremism of the GOP generally, and of the NCGOP specifically. Recognize and have the wherewithal to get on social media (which costs very little). Say something because you see something. The destruction of democracy itself means throwing all our selves on that grenade. Many a sacrifice has saved a retreat.

'Red Wave' This November? GOP Polling Sez It Ain't Necessarily So

 

Thanks to Carolina Forward for this bombshell:

Last week, our research team discovered leaked Republican polling on key NC state legislative races. Here’s how it works.

When state-level Republicans want national, DC-based GOP organizations to pay for key campaign activities like polling, there are certain campaign finance legal hoops they must jump through. Those organizations can conduct the polling, but they must post it somewhere “public” for the North Carolina GOP to “find” it. Usually, this is by posting it somewhere obscure.

Well - this time, we found that polling. And it tells a very different story than you’ve probably heard in the media. Republican polling shows that several Carolina Forward Slate candidates - and many beyond it - are running in a dead heat, or narrowly ahead, of their Republican opponents:

Rep. Howard Hunter (NC House District 5): +7%

Amy DeLoach (NC House District 20): -0.9%

Christy Clark (NC House District 98): -1.7%

Sen. Sydney Batch (NC Senate District 17): +3%

… And beyond the Carolina Forward Slate:

Frank McNeil (NC Senate District 21): -0.7%. GOP incumbent: Sen. Tom McInnis

Christine Kelly (NC House District 37): +1.2%. GOP incumbent: Rep. Erin Paré

Rep. James Gailliard (NC House District 25): +0.3%

Again: this is Republican-sponsored polling, intended for internal use by their legislative caucus and partners.

So, what does this all mean? Here are our takeaways:

At a bare minimum: there’s just no evidence - in 15 separate polls all across the state - for any sort of “red wave” building for the 2022 election

In previous cycles, polling in June/July was strongly indicative of November results

Cheri Beasley is running tied, or slightly ahead, of Ted Budd in all of the closest districts