Target One for Ending the Republican Super-Majority in the NC Senate

 

Weeks ago the Democratic Minority Leader in the NC Senate, Sydney Batch, identified Lisa Stone Barnes in Senate Dist. 11 (Nash, Franklin, and Vance counties in north-central NC) as the prime target for ending the Republican super-majority in the NC Senate. Batch and other top Democrats, including Associate Justice Anita Earls, were on their way to a campaign roll-out in Rocky Mount to anoint and give their blessings to the Democratic candidate they think can take out Barnes -- mega-church founder James Gailliard, who previously served two terms in the NC House in an overlapping Nash Co. district following the Blue Wave of 2018. 

That was the first time I heard that Barnes was Dems' best shot at flipping a Senate seat and ending the Republican super-majority.

Then, in one of the most bizarre moments during the December candidate-filing period, Barnes's fellow Republican Senator Amy Galey of Alamance traveled north to Rockingham to beg Sheriff Sam Page not to file against Sen. Phil Berger, because (Galey wrote in a several-page letter that became public) if Phil Berger is distracted by a nasty primary, he won't be able to funnel money and other help to three vulnerable Senate Republicans, namely Lisa Stone Barnes (and two others I'll get to presently in subsequent posts). Amy Galey happens to be a Majority Whip in the Senate, a true lieutenant to Phil Berger's president pro tempore. So it's practically Republican establishment gospel -- Lisa Barnes is in trouble.

Which is surprising to this admittedly far-off observer. Barnes has looked like an immovable institution in Nash County. Her husband Johnny Barnes owned and operated the biggest multi-county sweet potato growing operation probably on the East Coast (and incidentally used migrant labor -- a bracero died of heat exhaustion on his farm in 2024). Always well turned out (Republican country club chic) and infallibly attracted to business interests and the connections that come with them, Lisa Barnes rose on civic volunteerism. Her political ambition also asserted itself. She won a seat on the Nash County Commission in 2012, followed in 2018 with beating incumbent Democrat Bobbie Richardson for an NC House seat, the only blue-to-red flip in 2018 in the whole state in what was otherwise a blue wave year. Lisa Stone Barnes was suddenly a genuine Republican princess in the General Assembly.

She spent only two terms in the NC House before she saw an opening to run for the NC Senate in 2020, where she's now in her third term. 

But into every life the rain must fall. First, in late 2024, a Superior Court judge placed Barnes Family Farms Corp. into receivership after it defaulted on $40 million in loans from Rabo AgriFinance, a unit of Netherlands-based Rabobank which specializes in agriculture financing. "The court-appointed receiver takes over the businesses, with wide-ranging duties that include paying utility bills and insurance premiums, obtaining bank and other documents, changing locks and negotiating the sale of assets. The Barnes can’t interfere with the receiver, who is authorized to seek help from the sheriff’s offices in Nash, Edgecombe and Wilson counties."

Then an unkinder cut just six months later. Johnny Barnes died in July 2025. He was only 61.

Despite the heaviness of losing financial and emotional props which might deter most of us, Lisa Stone Barnes showed up on the first day of candidate filing -- December 1st -- to make her run for reelection official and coincidentally become the Number One target for every Democrat in Raleigh and elsewhere in what may turn out to be Blue Wave 2026. She has always projected pro-business moderation while following her Republican crowd to vote for every anti-abortion measure that comes down the pike, but you won't find MAGA spikiness or trumpist braying on any of her social sites. Whether the fines for violating migrant-labor laws charged to Johnny Barnes seriously damage her pro-business image -- that's an open question.

James D. Gailliard (D)

James Gailliard is impressive by several metrics, and he's been running against Barnes since last July. He is the founding pastor of Word Tabernacle Church in Rocky Mount, a genuine megachurch "serving thousands of families from ten North Carolina Counties and six Virginia counties. In 2013, Word Tabernacle was named amongst the 100 fastest growing churches in America." Gailliard is a native of Philadelphia, a graduate of the Central High School for Boys and Morehouse College in Atlanta, where he was an honors student. He worked in corporate America before feeling called to the ministry.

Gailliard's civic volunteerism and leadership are a match to Barnes's. He was named the 2016 Distinguished Citizen by the Rocky Mount Chamber of Commerce, and most recently was recognized with a Lifetime Achievement Award from President Joe Biden. Gailliard is the founder Chair of The REACH Center, Inc.; a member of the Board of Trustees, Elizabeth City State University as well as the Board of Preachers, Morehouse College, his alma mater; and he is the former Chairman of the Board for the North Carolina Legislative Black Caucus Foundation. He was also named to the Board of Visitors at NC Wesleyan College.

He posted on Twitter a sort of apologia for his combination of religious/political activism: "If pastors avoid politics, we aren’t being neutral—we’re being negligent. The Bible speaks to laws, land, labor, and leadership. To ignore policy is to ignore people—and that’s the opposite of shepherding." And only naturally, he started a podcast, Until All Thrive, last July.

The No. 1 Competitive, Pick-up Senate Seat

NC Senate Dist. 11 -- Nash, Franklin, and Vance counties

Sydney Batch of Wake County is the Minority Leader in the NC Senate, and she has named Lisa Stone Barnes as the top Republican target in 2024 for flipping a Senate seat, a potential upset that could end the supermajority dictatorship of the Senate Republicans under Phil Berger. Batch went to Rocky Mount on July 10th for the campaign roll-out of Barnes's Democrat opponent, Rev. James Gailliard (for historic context on both, use the Q bar above). Gailliard used his own home as launching pad and gathered a crowd which included NC Associate Justice Anita Earls and many of the operatives active right now in the NC Democratic Party and in the DemsSenateCaucus. Gailliard has clearly been anointed, and Batch told Will Doran of WRAL that the candidate will need around $3 million to mount a winning campaign. I bet he'll raise it.

Gailliard is impressive by several metrics. He's a well educated Northern transplant who worked in corporate management before being called to the ministry (as the saying goes). He was the founding pastor of Word Tabernacle Church in Rocky Mount, and has 20 years behind him as senior pastor of what became a mega-church, building a strong self-help community base that stretched over several North Carolina counties and up into Virginia. Word Tabernacle is considered one of the largest historically Black churches in the state. In 2013, it was named among 100 fastest growing churches in the whole country. From that base, in 2018 Pastor Gailliard ran for and won a seat in the NC House, was reelected in 2020, and then lost the seat in the Biden mid-term of 2022.

Gailliard's good deeds as a community leader were recognized and honored. He was named the 2016 Distinguished Citizen by the Rocky Mount Chamber of Commerce, and most recently was recognized with a Lifetime Achievement Award from President Joe Biden. Gailliard is the founder Chair of The REACH Center, Inc, a member of the Board of Trustees, Elizabeth City State University as well as the Board of Preachers, Morehouse College, his alma mater, and he is the former Chairman of the Board for the North Carolina Legislative Black Caucus Foundation. He was also named to the Board of Visitors at NC Wesleyan College. "His academic background is a combo of theology, counseling, and business administration." (Source: Word Tabernacle)

His public speaking can be judged in this video of his keynote address to the NC Black Alliance, May 6, 2025:

LISA STONE BARNES, Republican incumbent

Barnes previously served a couple of terms as a Nash County commissioner and then moved up to the NC House (District 7) in the elections of 2018, defeating incumbent Democrat Bobbie Richardson in the rare blue-to-red flip that year of the Blue Wave. That upset made Barnes an instant rising star, so pretty instantly she announced she would run in a three-way Republican primary for an open Senate seat in 2020, and she won it easily. During that campaign, I called Barnes "something of a moderate" because she nowhere played the Trump card, putting his name all over her website like most lower-level Republican candidates did and still do, and she didn't parade the label "conservative." She seemed more interested in economic development for her rural district than in social hot-buttons (she had pushed the expansion of broadband in rural areas). 

Lisa Stone Barnes

Her business interests greatly define her legislative "moderation." "Barnes’ family runs a massive farming operation throughout multiple eastern North Carolina counties that’s one of the world’s largest sweet potato producers, in addition to growing other crops. It was taken over by a foreign bank last year after defaulting on $40 million in loans" (Doran).  In March 2024, the farm was fined $187,000 because of the heat-related death of a Mexican worker: "The Department of Labor said Barnes Farming violated three worker safety rules, including not providing breaks, not having adequate access to water and not having adequate emergency response procedures." (NCVoices). 

Though she was targeted by the state Democratic apparatus in 2024, she hung on for reelection. In 2026, she'll be dragging more baggage.

Dave's Redistricting calculates Senate District 11 as 50.0% D, 48.5% R, and 1.6% Other (which I know doesn't add up, but whattya gonna do?). For the 2024 race, the Civitas Partisan Index rated the district "Lean Republican," even with a D+1 rank (whattya gonna do?). The district no doubt does lean Republican, especially in a Republican year. Is 2026 going to be a Republican year? Not damn likely.

Senate Dist. 11: Do-Gooder Retired Army Colonel vs. a Sweat-Shop Owner

 

Civitas rates Senate District 11 as D+1, statistically a "toss-up." So on paper, at least, it looks like a good prospect for a Democratic flip, and all the Democrats need to break the Republican super-majority is one additional seat. Dave's Redistricting rates it an even 50% Democratic to 48.5% Republican.

James Mercer, Democrat

He's a retired Army Lt. Colonel. There's a big-gun Democratic push behind him (he's been endorsed and aided by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, and Gov. Cooper campaigned with him), but he's up against a popular Republican woman legislator, and this may prove to be a tough slog.

His LinkedIn account says he's Director of Military Studies at NC Wesleyan College, and he's got a history of expertise in emergency management. He spent a year in Iraq in 2003-'04. In 2017, he founded the Mercer Foundation, Inc. (for which he serves as the President and CEO ), "a non-profit and social enterprise providing a children’s feeding program, an emergency rental and utility assistance program for low-income individuals/families and a transitional housing program for homeless veterans in Nash and Edgecombe County, NC." (website). "We equip disabled veterans with the necessary tools, education and vocational training and provide balanced meals for children in high risk environments" (Mercer Foundation website). The foundation is a high-minded operation, and commendably Mercer pays himself zero out of its funds. Charity Navigator gives the foundation a score of 61.

Mercer has been on the Nash Community College Board of Trustees for six or seven years and was named  chair of the board in 2023. He's worked for the community college in the Continuing Education Department for three years, teaching public safety and emergency management classes, rescue, and Firefighter I and Firefighter II classes.

Demographically, Senate Dist. 11 is 36.6% Black.

Lisa Barnes, Republican (incumbent)

First elected in 2020, she is completing her second term in the Senate. I wrote about her in 2020:

She previously served a couple of terms as a Nash County commissioner and then moved up to the NC House (District 7) in the elections of 2018, defeating incumbent Democrat Bobbie Richardson in the rare blue-to-red flip that year. It didn't take her long to opt for further advancement when Rick Horner announced his retirement. She's clearly a rising star for the NCGOP.

She's also clearly somewhat out of step with other North Carolina Republicans because she nowhere plays the Trump card and she doesn't parade the label "conservative." She strikes a much more moderate tone and is clearly more interested in economic development for her rural district than she is in conservative social hot-buttons (she's pushed the expansion of broadband in rural areas). That does not mean, however, that she's ever shown any interest in bucking her Republican caucus in the NC General Assembly.

She's still keeping a muted presence on social media. She hasn't posted to her Twitter feed since her win in 2020, and her anemic Facebook page is dedicated to community boosting. She doesn't go near MAGA. She and her husband own a corporate farm (the husband is listed as sole owner, but still) growing mainly sweet potatoes. In March of this year, the farm was fined $187,000 because of the heat-related death of a Mexican worker: "The Department of Labor said Barnes Farming violated three worker safety rules, including not providing breaks, not having adequate access to water and not having adequate emergency response procedures." "Although a 10-gallon water cooler was available to the workers, no cups were provided. Employees were forced to put their heads under the spigot and open their mouths to get water" (NCVoices).

Seems like a potent campaign issue. Will James Mercer seize it? Don't see any evidence yet.

Lisa Barnes did vote to override the governor's veto of the new 12-week abortion ban in the state, but if Democrat Mercer has a contrasting stance on abortion, he doesn't state it on his website. So I doubt he'll campaign against her on that issue.

The Elections of March: Democratic Primary in NCS11

NC Senate District 11 includes part of Johnston County (immediately abutting Wake County on the east) and Nash County to the northeast of Wake. The most recent court-ordered redistricting cost the district some 2.60% of its Republicans, and both political scientist Michael Bitzer and FlipNC now rate the district as "Competitive" but "Republican Favored." If the Democrats are fated to take control of the NC Senate, they'll have to win a district like the 11th. Tall order, but doable ... with the right candidate.

Incumbent Republican Senator Rick Horner (first elected in 2016 and reelected in 2018) announced he was retiring, which set off a steeple chase in both parties to replace him.

The Democrats

Allen Wellons, a 70-year-old baby-boomer born in 1949, is a Smithfield lawyer with Wilkins Wellons Coats. He's a 1971 graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill with a B.A. and a 1975 graduate of NC Central School of Law in 1975. He formerly served three terms in the NC Senate so long ago -- from 1996 to 2002 -- that few voters younger than the boomer class will remember him. He was decisively defeated for reelection to his 4th term in 2002 by Republican Fred Smith, and he's been out of public life ever since.

Perhaps he was recruited as a proven mover-and-shaker whose former service in the senate will impress voters. At the moment, he may be resting on that reputation ... because he has no campaign infrastructure that we can find -- no website, no Facebook presence, no Twitter account. Doesn't inspire confidence that he's ready to make the race. Resting on the past could be a fatal mistake (unless he's the Joe Biden of Johnston County and I'm just completely wrong). Waiting for voters to acknowledge your worthiness may have worked in the past, but sadly in many cases, the past has passed.

Wellons appeared to be taking a cautious approach to hot-button issues, telling the press that his number one concern was helping farmers and the ag industry (but he also said he was in favor of expanding Medicaid coverage). Other than that, he's pretty much a blank slate.

Albert R. Pacer, a 75-year-old boomer born in 1945, presents a decided contrast to Wellons, because he does have a campaign up and running -- a website, a Facebook page, and a Twitter account. That's partly because he's an old hand at running for the District 11 senate seat. He ran against Republican Rick Horner in 2016, losing by over 20,000 votes, and he ran again against Horner in 2018, losing by over 10,000 votes (so his trajectory is upward ... but still).

If Wellons strikes the pose of a conservative Democratic attorney, Pacer is an out liberal: "North Carolina has been known as a Progressive State, but that is no longer the case. Indeed it has become a leader of the forces that are driving us from the possibility of being a New South back to the conditions of the Old South which made it the most backward part of the nation. And it is taking the rest of the country along on that backward slide. As a native North Carolinian, that is maddening. It is absolutely crucial that Democrats wrest control of the NC General Assembly out of the hands of the Republicans and I am running to help make that possible."

Pacer has an undergraduate degree from UNC-Wilmington (American history and poly sci) and a master's from AppState (poly sci). He's clearly the Democratic activist in the race, but his two previous losses are an "ouchie."


The Republicans

Lisa Stone Barnes is the clear frontrunner. She previously served a couple of terms as a Nash County commissioner and then moved up to the NC House (District 7) in the elections of 2018, defeating incumbent Democrat Bobbie Richardson in the rare blue-to-red flip that year. It didn't take her long to opt for further advancement when Rick Horner announced his retirement. She's clearly a rising star for the NCGOP.

She's also clearly somewhat out of step with other North Carolina Republicans because she nowhere plays the Trump card and she doesn't parade the label "conservative." She strikes a much more moderate tone and is clearly more interested in economic development for her rural district than she is in conservative social hot-buttons (she's pushed the expansion of broadband in rural areas). That does not mean, however, that she's ever shown any interest in bucking her Republican caucus in the NC General Assembly.

If she's insufficiently Trumpist, it might hurt her among Republican primary voters, though her primary opponents don't look like serious contenders.

Patrick Harris is a first-term Johnston County commissioner, only just elected in 2018. He told the Johnston County Report that God had encouraged him to seek higher office, just as He had led him onto the county commish. So there's that.

Dennis Neilsen is a retired Air Force colonel and not only a perennial candidate but also a switch-hitter, having run under the banners of both Republican and Democratic parties. He ran unsuccessfully as a Republican for both NC Senate and House seats in 2004 and 2006, switched in 2008 to the Democratic Party to challenge Bev Perdue in the primary for governor, then back to Republican and ran unsuccessfully in the Republican primary for the NCS3 seat in 2010, unsuccessfully in the Republican primary for the NCS11 seat in 2012, unsuccessfully in the Republican primary for the NCH26 seat in 2014, and unsuccessfully in the Republican primary for the NCH26 seat in 2016. Looks like he's about to rack up another losing statistic in the Republican primary of 2020.