Democrats Have (Almost) Every Reason to Rejoice About Last Night

The special election in the Ohio 12th Congressional District hasn't been called yet. Republican Troy Balderson is 1,754 votes ahead of Democrat Danny O'Connor, but there are still "possibly as many as 8,483 additional ballots" yet to be counted, provisional ballots and mail-in ballots from overseas. So it ain't over, and O'Connor hasn't conceded.

Even if O'Connor still loses, it's a win, O my brethren, more evidence of the blue wave building, because the Ohio 12th was gerrymandered to be a solid, deep-red Republican district.

The big city of Columbus occupies most of Franklin County, but the district was drawn to take in none of its urban core but only the (formerly) safe Republican suburbs, which are precisely the precincts that made O'Connor so competitive. The rest of the district is mainly rural Twitterman country, and we'll find out soon enough that Republican performance in those counties was way down from 2016.

To repeat what you probably already know -- Twitterman won the 12th by 11 points in 2016. The seat has been held by Republicans since 1983. GOP Rep. Patrick J. Tiberi won the district by 37 points in 2016.

Despite what ultimately happens here, both O'Connor and Balderson will have a rematch this November. You can certainly expect Corporal Bonespurs to make a return rally engagement, since he likes getting his ego greased.

Shortly before midnight last night, Mike DeBonis published this duh observation: "Democrats are routinely beating their 2016 performance by double digits — putting the House and perhaps even the Senate within their grasp in November." I repeat: duh.

This Will Be the Week for the NC GOP To Give Up Glue-Sniffing

Buckle up for what promises to be a thrill-ride of a political week:

1. Law suits in Raleigh

Photo Loretta Boniti

Chris Anglin promised to sue this morning in Wake Superior Court. He's contesting the General Assembly's bill of attainder singling him out for unequal treatment. Anglin followed the (new) law passed by the GA (Republicans), changed his party affiliation from D to R within the legal window, and filed to run for the Barbara Jackson seat on the state's Supreme Court

The Republican bosses in the General Assembly hit the roof, called themselves back into session last week and passed a new law saying that Anglin can't have the R beside his name on the ballot -- that the deadline for changing parties is now 90 days, which throws Anglin off the partisan ballot. Republicans, remember, brought partisanship to judge races, which used to be nonpartisan.

Anglin tweeted yesterday that he'll be in court this morning to challenge the bullshit. Holy crap! There he is before 9 this a.m., waiting to file his papers. He's asking for injunctive relief. 

The bit of his language I've seen: "I didn't make, break, or change the rules, just followed them. Even children understand changing the rules in the middle of an election is wrong."

How can he lose? 

NCAA/Clean Air Carolina lawsuit against four of the proposed constitutional amendments. I don't know which ones yet. These two non-profits were also at Wake Superior Court very early this morning.


Governor Cooper promised to sue today over the new law taking away the authority of the Constitutional Amendments Publication Commission as a gross violation of the separation of powers.

Danny O'Connor, in red

2. Special Election in Ohio on Tuesday

Young Democrat Danny O'Connor is running for a formerly solid Republican seat, the Ohio 12th, against Republican Troy Balderson. The special election comes tomorrow. Balderson should have this, but polling indicates that O'Connor has pulled even with him -- in a district that hasn't been represented by a Democrat in decades. So here rushes Twitterman Saturday night to Balderson's supposed rescue but really to do a rally for himself in which he briefly recommended Balderson for office but otherwise and in an hour-and-a-ten-minute rant in Lewis Center, Ohio bragged how awesome he is and how tremendous his acts and how dumb and evil everyone who opposes him is.


UPDATE, 11:30 a.m.
Hearing on Chris Anglin suit for injunctive relief scheduled for this afternoon, 2:30 in Courtroom 10A of Wake County Courthouse

Movement Is All in the Democratic Direction

Political prognosticator Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia issued new Crystal Ball ratings yesterday. They show movement, and all of it is in the direction of the Democrats. Here's the chart I found most interesting because we've focused on WatWatch on some of these Republican incumbents and their Democratic challengers. See discussion below the chart.

Crystal Ball House ratings changes

Member/District	Old Rating	New Rating
French Hill (R, AR-2)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Vern Buchanan (R, FL-16)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Charlie Crist (D, FL-13)	Likely Democratic	Safe Democratic
Steve King (R, IA-4)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
David Young (R, IA-3)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
Peter Roskam (R, IL-6)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
Trey Hollingsworth (R, IN-9)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
Jackie Walorski (R, IN-2)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
Andy Barr (R, KY-6)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
Mike Bishop (R, MI-8)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
NM-2 Open (Pearce, R)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Steve Chabot (R, OH-1)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
OH-12 Special (Tiberi, R)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
Mike Kelly (R, PA-16)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
John Carter (R, TX-31)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
John Culberson (R, TX-7)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
WV-3 Open (Jenkins, R)	Leans Republican	Toss-up

*The movement in notorious Steve King's 4th Iowa District might startle the horses, unless you've been paying attention to his Democratic challenger J.D. Sholten. We wrote about him on June 16.

*Andy Barr's seat in Kentucky's 6th District has moved to a toss-up between him and Amy McGrath, about whom we've written several times. She's one of the stand-out stars of 2018.

*In the 12th Congressional District of Ohio, with a special election coming on August 7 for an open seat, Democrat Danny O'Connor is now rated a toss-up to take the seat.

*The movement in John Carter's Texas District 31 is especially noteworthy, because one of the most electrifying Democrats we've observed all year, M.J. Hegar, is getting national attention with her introductory video.

*John Culberson's 7th Congressional District in Texas is now rated a toss-up. We took quick note of his Democratic challenger Lizzie Pannill Fletcher way back on December 19 of last year. She's obviously making waves.

*Finally, the open seat in West Virginia's 3rd District is suddenly now a toss-up. We took notice of the Democratic challenger, Richard Ojeda, on June 19. There hasn't been a viable Democrat in that district of West Virginia in many years.

Watch This One on August 7

Danny O'Connor in red shirt, canvassing.
Photo Maddie McGarvey, for the NYTimes

The 12th Congressional District of Ohio hasn't elected a Democrat since 1980.

A special election there for the US Congress is now rated a tossup by the Cook Political Report. The Democrat, Danny O'Connor, could be the next indication that the 2018 blue wave ain't no mirage.

Apparently, Democratic turn-out in early voting in heavily Republican areas bodes well. Early voting numbers always signal political energy -- who has the edge, which team can't wait to get in the game?

The Republican candidate for the open seat tries to paint O'Connor as a puppet of Nancy Pelosi, which hardly works at all any more, especially since O'Connor has already announced that he won't be voting for Pelosi as Speaker, should the Dems take control of the House.