Andy Beshear, Drawing Attention

 

As Democrats fight over whether they paid a price for moving too far left on some social issues, Beshear is using his red-state experience to argue the party need not run away from those topics.

--Hannah Knowles 

Andy Beshear has got my attention. He has twice won the governership of Kentucky while Trump was taking the state by over 30 points. Beshear carried his reelection in 2023 by 5 points. He's a boyish man, with "zero coolness," his son jokes, but with the eyes of a killer Huck-Finn. I watched his lengthy interview with Kristen Welker recently on Meet the Press. He keeps a fixed pleasant face as he listens, inscrutable, but the concentrated eyes give away an alert intelligence. When he talks, two very prominent front incisors flash in the light!

I stumbled on this video of Governor Beshear and his wife Brittany doing a funny comedy bit titled "Mean Tweets" in which the two of them read aloud both the praise and the insults that flew at them in 2024. I like the Beshear in this video, who both humorously confirms his nerd-dom and displays quick timing and a genuine chemistry with his wife:

Beshear and Brittany have been doing the "Mean Tweets" act since at least 2020 (check YouTube), and the governor has cemented himself as a self-deprecating good fellow who doesn't have any difficulty hearing the insults. He's achieved what looks to me like the "good dad" vibe of the wise family man who can take the slings and arrows without losing his balance. He bespeaks resilience. One tweet in the 2024 roundup said Beshear "sounded like a goober" and is "the goober that America needs." I'm aware that could be true, so I need to know more about the man.

Beshear just spent some time in South Carolina, ostensibly to present the keynote address for the annual AFL-CIO state convention in Greenville, but he made several other stops that were clearly self-interested in nature, since South Carolina is a very early presidential primary state. Such a visit as Beshear's is a de facto admission of presidential ambition, and he was full of helpful advice for Democrats. Democratic candidates should "talk like normal human beings,” Beshear said, eliminate the jargon of the Left, and "show voters that Democrats are focused on bread-and-butter issues." It seems to work for him in deep-red Kentucky. Democrats can “win everywhere” with good governance and a determination to be “the party of common sense, common ground and getting things done.” Emphasis on common sense.

Hannah Knowles, the WashPost embed with the Beshear expedition into South Carolina, provides color:

Beshear rose in Kentucky politics as the son of a former governor, aided by voters familiar with the family name. Nationally, he isn’t as well-known as other Democratic governors such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who was also in South Carolina last week. And his message, as a red-state governor used to working with Republicans, is not as fiery and combative as some in the party are seeking.

Beshear rebuked Trump and the GOP during his stops — calling the president’s agenda a “punch in the face” to the rural communities that voted for him — but also talked about creating “the grace and the space for people to disagree” on hot-button issues....

Beshear leaned into Kentucky’s similarities with South Carolina, telling crowds that as a southerner, “I know if you say ‘bless your heart,’ it’s ain’t good.” ... He urged Democrats to stop using wonky terms such as “substance abuse disorder” and “justice-involved populations” — a phrase that prompted members of one audience to wrinkle their faces and exclaim, “What?”

"Stop picking on those kids!" was Beshear's defiant veto message to Kentucky Republicans about their House Bill 495, an LGBTQ+ bill which he vetoed that aimed to reverse the governor's executive order banning conversion therapy for minors and restricting Medicaid funding for gender-affirming care. “I vetoed it because it was the right thing to do,” he said. “I said my faith teaches me that all children are children of God, and I didn’t want people picking on those kids.”

Republicans, Campaigning on Your Slavishness to Trumpism Will Only Get You So Far

Virginia will now have Democratic majorities in both houses of its state legislature, the first time since 1993. With a Democratic governor, expect new gun control measures, LGBTQ protections, and climate control initiatives guaranteed to give conservatives some acid reflux. Twitterman did not visit Virginia ahead of this election to rally Republicans, but despite his absence, voters did not appear to forget who's president. At least two seats flipped to Democratic in the state senate and at least five flipped in the House of Delegates. One district elected the first Muslim woman to the house.

In Kentucky, moderate Democrat Andy Beshear is ahead in the governor race by just over 5,000 votes, but Republican incumbent Matt Bevin, a truculent Trumpist who had sought to turn his reelection campaign into a referendum on Trump, is not conceding. All other state-wide races in Kentucky went to Republicans, a suggestion that it really was the unpopular Bevin who lost and not the Republican Party generally.

But it was the president himself who stood alongside Bevin on Monday night in Lexington to argue that, while the combative governor is “a pain in the ass,” his defeat would send “a really bad message” beyond Kentucky’s borders.

Yep. Message received.

Three Elections To Watch Next Tuesday

Virginia
Democrats are two seats away from taking the state house and one seat away from taking the state senate. The odds are good. The governorship is not up this year. With the power to redistrict the state after the 2020 Census hanging in the balance, campaign money has been flowing into the races, with Democrats far out-raising Republicans.

The results here next Tuesday will be considered a bellwether for other down-ballot Democrats in other states for 2020.

Kentucky
Republican incumbent Governor Matt Bevin, said to be the most unpopular governor in the nation, appears to be trailing his Democratic opponent Andy Beshear, the son of Steve Beshear, the last Democratic governor of Kentucky whom Matt Bevin defeated four years ago. So this race is something of a grudge match.

The fact that Bevin has lashed himself to Donald Trump may also make this governor race something of a bellwether for 2020. Bevin, who was down by 9 points in August, reframed the race as an opportunity for Kentucky voters to bark back at the impeachment inquiry in Washington. Will that attempt to nationalize Kentucky politics work? Dunno. But I'll sure as hell be watching.

Jim Hood and Tate Reeves

Mississippi
The governor race between Democrat Jim Hood, currently the state's attorney general and the only statewide elected Democrat in Mississippi, and Republican Tate Reeves, currently the lieutenant governor, has been a punch-fest of dirty tricks (your standard letters to black voters telling them they're not registered to vote and will be arrested) and nasty TV ads. Both candidates have accused the other of being unethical. Objectively, they may both be correct.

Every time he appears on TV, the Democrat appears to have more marbles in his mouth and shoots more guns at beer bottles. The Republican, for his part, crawls ever farther up Trump's ass. Twitterman, in fact, will appear in Mississippi tonight at a bragging rally nominally meant to benefit Tate Reeves.

I can't bring myself to much care who wins the race, but if it happens to be Jim Hood, then the national press is going to make something of it. I probably will too.

Another 2019 Bellwether Election: Governor of Kentucky

Republican Matt Bevin is the Governor of Kentucky. Elected in 2015, he's coming to the end of his first term. Used to be ... Kentucky didn't allow their governors a second term, but that was repealed in 1992. So Bevin is running for reelection as a rare bird, as only the third Republican Governor of Kentucky since World War II. The only Republican governor before him who was eligible for reelection to a second term, Ernie Fletcher, was defeated by Democrat Steve Beshear in 2007. One-term-and-out. That's the pattern for Republican governors of Kentucky, and Gov. Bevin looks right now like he ain't gonna deviate from the pattern.

According to Patrick Caldwell, Bevin's reelection campaign is "flailing." He's unpopular -- last listing I saw said Bevin's approval rating is at 33% -- and he's pissed off the lieutenant governor (a fellow Republican), the attorney general (a Democrat, son of the last Democratic governor, and the man running against him this year) and worst of all, he pissed off Kentucky's teachers.

A lot of the establishment Kentucky Republican Party doesn't like him either. His first dive into Kentucky Republican politics -- as an acid-washed Tea Partier in 2014 -- was to challenge the supremacy of Mitch McConnell. Yes, Bevin ran against McConnell in the Republican primary and got his ass whipped good. McConnell beat him by 25 points after calling him an “East Coast con man” (Bevin's a native of New Hampshire. No kidding). Bevin got so mad at McConnell's counterattacks he refused to endorse McConnell for the fall election. That kind of shit leaves stains. Bevin whined: “You can’t punch people in the face, punch people in the face, punch people in the face, and ask them to have tea and crumpets with you and think it’s all good.” Make a note of the whining. It'll show up again.

How to put this nicely? Bevin is amazingly trumpy. (His introductory campaign ad is about Twitterman almost as much as it's about Bevin.) He casually reveals his prejudices even while pretending empathy for people he clearly has zero interest in. Here he was in July, in that section of town:

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Enjoyed meeting the members of the West Louisville Chess Club at Nativity Academy at St. Boniface...Incredible kids with incredible minds. #WeAreKY

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12:02 PM - Jul 10, 2018

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Ignorance just naturally goes nicely as a side-dish to open prejudice. Bevan's an aggressive anti-vaxxer. He blamed video games for the Parkland school shooting. He can be a jerk and whine at the same time (Facebook video where he goes on and on about how unfair the attacks on him are). His own Republican lieutenant governor is suing him. “Pray for me as I battle dark forces,” she tweeted. Bevin retaliated and dropped her from his ticket. He was booed at the Kentucky Derby last May.

"But Bevin’s biggest mistake may be spending the past two years picking fights with public school teachers. He successfully pushed a law to allow charter schools, saying he wanted to 'end the monopoly that exists in Kentucky’s school system,' and he’s attempted to weaken pension benefits for public employees" (Patrick Caldwell). As teachers pushed back, they got organized and they got strong. They joined other striking teachers in West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Arizona in 2018 and essentially shut down a special session Bevin called of the legislature, a special session dedicated to cutting teacher pensions. Teachers gathered by the hundreds in the state capitol in Frankfort, and the legislature folded -- just like that. They went home, their tails tucked. Through all the teacher protest, Bevin responded by insulting ever more people in ever more personal ways.

Here's the kicker: According to a past president of the Kentucky Education Association, more than half of KEA's members are Republicans. They belong to Republican families -- sometimes extended families -- in Kentucky's grassroot counties. The biggest local employer is the school system in many of those counties. If teachers take a disliking to you, you might begin to smell like toast.

Bevin's Democratic Opponent This November

Andy Beshear is the elected Attorney General of Kentucky, and as such, he's spent a fair amount of his time challenging Governor Bevin's initiatives in court. He came to the aid of higher education and of public school teachers, defending them from what he said in court was Bevin's overstepping his constitutional role. Now they're in a virtual death-match for governor.

The 42-year-old Andy is son of Steve Beshear, the last Democratic governor (who incidentally got reelected to a second term). He's no flaming liberal. He's got an 86% rating by the NRA. And if anything he's in the pro-business branch of the Democratic Party. As a young lawyer (UVa School of Law), he represented the developers of the Blue Grass Pipeline through the state, and those were fracking dollars. But he's also repeatedly sued opioid manufacturers on behalf of the victims, and he's defended Obamacare, which was initially responsible for getting thousands of people insured before Gov. Bevin started yanking the rug out.

He might be the brand of business-friendly, gun-friendly yet crusading attorney that can win in conservative Kentucky. While governor for two terms, his father built up a Democratic support network that no doubt benefits the son. Hard to put a dollar value on that network.

Most recent poll I've seen (Gravis Marketing) has Bevin leading Beshear by 6 points, but with Beshear doing better than Bevin among women and college-educated voters. That overall lead for Bevin doesn't comport with a 33% approval rating, and as we near November, I expect to see that 6-point lead shrink. If Bevin loses, it'll be seen as a bellwether for Trump's 2020 prospects.

We'll Be Watching the Governor's Race in Kentucky This Fall

Andy Beshear

Kentucky's Attorney General Andy Beshear won the Democratic primary yesterday and will face incumbent Republican Governor Matt Bevin, who also won his primary yesterday but not by much (52% of the vote). Bevin is "deeply unpopular," and Beshear is the son of the governor who immediately preceded Bevin in office, Steve Beshear.

Kentucky is one of just three states that will be choosing governors in 2019 (including Louisiana and Mississippi).

Bevin is unpopular because of his efforts to cripple the Affordable Care Act and for pushing through cuts to public pensions for teachers and other government employees. Beshear ran his campaign as a defender of public pensions, education funding, and health care access -- those "dinner table issues" that helped Democrats take back the House last year.

Beshear had two opponents in the primary. Adam Edelen, a former state auditor who has become a solar-energy entrepreneur, ran to Beshear's left and got about 27% of the vote. Rocky Adkins from the Eastern Kentucky mountains ran as a social conservative, opposed to abortion rights and a protector of the coal industry. Adkins finished second with 33% behind Beshear's 38%.

If I were a Kentucky voter, I would probably have voted for Edelen, but I'm eager to see Beshear beat Bevin this November.