What's the Matter With Bladen County?

The article down-column, "State Board of Elections Refuses To Certify Congressional Race, NC-9," was pure speculation on my part (brought on -- in my defense -- by SBOE member Joshua Malcolm's choice of words and general mysteriousness). I was largely wrong (though accurate in my background facts from a 2016 scandal in Bladen County). I had gone researching and immediately turned up the name Leslie McCrae Dowless Jr. He was charging others with absentee ballot fraud in 2016, and in 2018, he appears to have followed that same piper.

Joe Bruno, in the field reporting for WSOC, has been a veritable developer of leads (his Twitter feed is especially lively) and hence indispensable in understanding this developing sinkhole. Don't know about other regional TV stations (I watch little network TV), but WSOC has been comprehensive in its coverage.

First, Joe Bruno's Twitter feed:

Oct 28
A spokesperson for NCSBE says shortly after the election, a state investigator seized absentee ballot request forms and absentee ballot container envelopes (the envelopes that ballots are returned in), but not the ballots themselves from Bladen County

Oct 28
Washington Post: "The investigation appears to be focused on Bladen County, but an official in Robeson County said that county also has been contacted"

Oct. 28
BREAKING- I have obtained 6 sworn affidavits related to the #NC09 investigation. A team of a dozen @wsoctv employees and I working on this. Huge allegations and potential implications.

The affidavits center around a man named Leslie McCrae Dowless Jr. He is well known in Bladen County political circles. Attempts to get in contact with Dowless have so far been unsuccessful

Two of the affidavits reference Dowless working for the Harris campaign. (Harris camp hasn't responded) One witness claims to have overheard someone saying Dowless would get a $40,000 bonus if Harris won. Another witness claims Dowless told him he doesn't do checks, just cash

In a sworn affidavit a witness claims Dowless told him he had 80 people working for him and that he was doing "absentee" for Harris. This conversation was said to have happened on April 25 before the primary.

Oct. 29

Leslie McCrae Dowless Jr. on right.
His brother in Mark Harris Tshirt
Photo Joe Bruno

Oct. 29

Maybe most significant of all, because it claims insider info on the Bladen Co. BOE:
A woman claims the tape showing election results was run after the polls closed and viewed by officials who were not judges. She also claimed the absentee mail in ballots were distinctive.. and a large number from the Bethel precinct

Nov. 30

The NCSBOE will be meeting this morning via teleconference. The certification/decertification of the Harris-McCready congressional race is on the agenda. The NCSBOE has every right under state law to mandate a new election "if it finds that the race was tainted, a move likely to be challenged in court." NCGOP has promised to sue (Kirk Ross in the WashPost).

To complicate the matter further: The present state board and all local county boards will be dissolved as of midnight next Monday, December 3, and the board structure will revert to 3-2 Democratic majority on the state board and 2-1 Democratic majority on all county boards. That's the effect of a three-judge ruling reached last October 16, 2018. Implementation of that order was put on hold until after the election, but is in force now.

More Data Points from North Carolina Early Voting, 2018

➼ 29% of all NC voters cast ballots during Early Voting ... compared to 18% in 2014

➼ 42.5% of early voters in 2018 = Democrats; 30.3% = Republicans ... compared to 45.3% Democrats in 2014 and 32.1% Republicans in 2014

➼ 32% of registered Democrats voted early in 2018, compared to 20% in 2014

➼ 29% of registered Republicans voted early in 2018, compared to 19% in 2014

➼ 26.9% of early voters in 2018 are Unaffiliated, compared to 20.4% in 2014

➼ 24% of those registered Unaffiliated voted in 2018, compared to 13% in 2014

➼ 9.1% of early voters in 2018 were aged 18-29, compared to 5.9% in 2014

➼ 99 of NC's 100 counties experienced increased turnout during Early Voting, with several counties experiencing double-digit increases


All statistics: Andrew Carter in the NewsAndObserver.

What Happened in the North Carolina Primary Yesterday

US Congress

CD2 -- Democrat perennial candidate Linda Coleman buried Ken Romley, who ran an active campaign and looked like he had a shot. Coleman will try to unseat incumbent Republican George Holding this fall.

CD5 -- Democrat DD Adams will be taking on Virginia Foxx this fall.

CD9 -- Democrat Dan McCready got almost 84% of the vote (ouch!), and poor pitiful Robert Pittenger lost to Republican preacherman Mark Harris by less than a thousand votes ... setting up one of the marquee races this fall ... McCready v. Harris. 

CD11 -- It will be Democrat Phillip G. Price challenging incumbent Republican Mark Meadows this fall.

CD13 -- Democrat Kathy Manning did indeed brush aside D challenger Adam Coker to take on Tedd Budd this fall.

NC Senate

SD1 -- Republican establishmentarian Bob Steinberg v. Dem D. Cole Phelps for this open seat. 

SD16 -- D Wiley Nickel won his primary, which is probably tantamount to election to the office in this safe D district. 

SD19 -- D Kirk DeViere will be taking on flawed Republican incumbent Wesley Meredith this fall.

SD25 -- Republican incumbent Tom McInnis easily beat back a tea party challenger and will face a strong D woman, Helen Probst Mill, this fall.

SD34 -- There was indeed a primary slap-down for Republican Bob Rucho, trying to regain a seat in the body he had resigned from in 2016, with "moderate" Vicki Sawyer winning the R primary in a heavily R district.

SD38 -- Incumbent Dem Joel Ford did indeed lose to Mujtaba Mohammed in a safe D district.

SD39 -- Incumbent Republican Dan Bishop, avatar of LGBT hatred, easily brushed aside moderate R Beth Monaghan.

SD45 -- First-termer R Deanna Ballard did prevail over three-term veteran Shirley Randleman -- a surprise to me.

NC House

HD1 -- Dem Ron Wesson, a strong contender in a competitive district, will face Republican Edward C. Goodwin, winner of his primary yesterday (with very low Republican turn-out).

HD3 -- Crazy Republican incumbent Michael Speciale easily beat his challenger Eric Queen in this safe R district.

HD6 -- A strong Dem woman, Tess Judge, will be running against Bobby Hanig and not the toxic incumbent Beverly Boswell.

HD11 -- Democrat Allison Dahle buried besmirched Dem incumbent Duane Hall in this strongly D district.

HD35 -- Democrat Terence Everitt will be challenging Republican incumbent Chris Malone in what should be a very competitive district this fall.

HD83 -- Other crazy incumbent Republican Larry Pittman easily brushed aside his primary opponent and will be challenged by D Gail Young, a progressive activist with strong legs (scroll down).

HD99 -- Democratic incumbent, Rodney Moore, who had often been the dog in the manger for the Democratic House caucus, got less than 17% of the vote in his primary, losing to Nasif Majeed, in this safe D district. 

Other State Primaries I'll Be Watching Tomorrow

Don Blankenship

West Virginia

Holy crap! Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin has been considered the most endangered Democrat in the US Senate, but the Republican voters in their primary tomorrow may grant him a reprieve ... if they choose felon coal baron Don Blankenship to run against him. National Republicans are so worried about that outcome that they induced Corporal Bonespurs to tweet this morning a warning to WVa voters not to vote for Blankenship. "Remember Alabama," DJT tweeted.

Indiana

Three trumpers are trying to out-trump one another (though outsider Mike Braun, the acknowledged front-runner, has a history of pulling Democratic ballots in his state's primaries, which is being used against him by his opponents). Whoever wins this primary will face incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly this fall. Donnelly is considered vulnerable, and the Republicans badly want to flip this seat.

Ohio

Republican primary for governor, with term-limited John Kasich on the everlasting outs with trumpers. Vying to replace him: Lieutenant Gov. Mary Taylor, who is backed by Kasich, and Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine, who was endorsed by the state party and most Republican members of the state House. Mary Taylor is apparently nervous about the Kasich endorsement because of trumper backlash.

Also in Ohio (and according to Ballotpedia): "One key primary is in the 16th Congressional District, where pro-Trump state Rep. Christina Hagan is facing former Ohio State football player Anthony Gonzalez to replace U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci (R), who is running for the U.S. Senate. While Hagan has aligned herself with pro-Trump figures like Anthony Scaramucci and House Freedom Caucus leaders, Gonzalez has attracted traditional Republican donors and is backed by U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.)."

More on the "Blueing" of Republican Suburbs

The NYTimes has a big article out this morning highlighting what we've been talking about since November 8, when the suburbs of Virginia and New Jersey turned out many veteran Republican lawmakers, and voters in special and in municipal elections across the nation also showed clear signs of rejection of Trump's MAGA.

Here are some of the Democratic candidates arising to challenge once safe Republican incumbents:

Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, challenging incumbent Republican John Culberson in the Texas 7th District

Texas-7 was carefully gerrymandered out of the suburbs of Houston to be Republican-friendly. Culberson won reelection there in 2016 with 56% of the vote. Fletcher is a lawyer who out-raised the incumbent during the last fundraising period, but she's also one of at least seven Democrats who'll be competing in the Democratic primary to challenge Culberson. 

Ben McAdams, challenging Mia Love in the Utah 4th District

Utah-4 takes in part of Salt Lake City (SLC) and south through the affluent suburbs of Sandy and Provo. McAdams is mayor of SLC, a liberal oasis in a sea of red, but Trump is noticeably unpopular among Mormons, especially well-educated Mormons. Love is the first black female Republican elected to Congress and the first black American elected to Congress from Utah, first elected by the thinnest of margins in 2014 and reelected in 2016 with 53% of the vote. McAdams will have a Democratic primary with at least three others.

Jim Gray, challenging Andy Barr in the Kentucky 6th District

Kentucky-6 takes in all of Lexington (including its suburbs, not to mention the University of Kentucky) and the state capitol of Frankfort. Jim Gray is the popular mayor of Lexington, but he got into the Democratic primary after Amy McGrath, a former Marine pilot who reportedly has raised more than $1 million. The incumbent Republican Barr has won both his elections to Congress with at least 60% of the vote.

Scott Wallace, challenging Brian Fitzpatrick in the Pennsylvania 8th District

Pennsylvania-8 is as white-collar Republican as you can get, taking in all of Bucks County. Democrat Wallace, a lawyer and philanthropist whose grandfather was one of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s vice presidents, is as yet unannounced, but he's known to be considering the race. There's already an announced Democrat, Rachel Riddick, so there'll likely be a primary. Incumbent Republican Fitzpatrick, who was first elected in the Tea Party wave of 2010, will also have a primary.

P. G. Sittenfeld, challenging Steve Chabot in the Ohio 1st District

The Ohio-1 was gerrymandered to take in Warren County and the suburbs north of Cincinnati. It's been considered a safe Republican seat. Sittenfeld is a Cincinnati city councilman and is being heavily recruited by the US House Democratic recruitment machine. Two other Democrats are already in the race. Republican Chabot was first

elected to Congress in 1994.

Lisa Brown, challenging Cathy McMorris Rodgers in the Washington 5th District

The Washington-5 is in far eastern Washington state and takes in all of Spokane, the state's 2nd largest city. McMorris Rodgers is part of the Republican House leadership and is considered unassailable, but Democrat Brown is a former Washington state senate leader and more recently the chancellor of Washington State University's Spokane campus.

Dan McCready, challenging Robert Pittenger in the North Carolina 9th District

The NC-9 is Charlotte-centric and Surburbia Prime. Pittenger looks weak and may lose his primary to pulpit-pounder Mark Harris, who will then face Democrat and ex-Marine McCready in the general election. In North Carolina, this will be ground zero for any Democratic wave.

Kelly Mazeski, challenging Peter Roskam in the Illinois 6th District

The Illinois-6 has been considered safely Republican, as it wraps around the western suburbs of Chicago, but it rejected Trump for Clinton by 7 points in 2016. Mazeski is one of at least seven Democrats who'll go head-to-head in a Democratic primary for the privilege of taking on Roskam, who took over the 6th District from Henry Hyde in 2006.