The 2024 Blue Wave Could Make House 25 a Democratic Flip

 

House District 25 (Nash County) northeast of Wake, is about as rural as you get. The biggest towns --Rocky Mount, Whitakers, and Sharpsburg -- are on or near county lines, so much of their population don't vote in the district. When I hear the county seat is Nashville, I always do a doubletake. "There's a Nashville, North Carolina?" It's pretty small. The district, which is entirely in Nash County, is 40% Black. Civitas calls it D+2. Dave's says 51% D.

In District 25, the Republican incumbent is going to be hard to beat, but a new Blue Wave brought on by the change at the top of the ticket could make the difference.

Allen Chesser, Republican Incumbent

Mr. and Mrs. Chesser with their five kids

Chesser is the Republican who beat Black Rep. James Gailliard in 2022. Gailliard had been part of the Class of '18 blue wave. He kept his seat through one reelection in 2022 and then lost it to Chesser in '24.

Chesser's campaign video -- currently pinned at the top of his FB feed -- is a professional production featuring glowing testimonials from some of the establishment in Nash County. Chesser also promoted Opportunity Scholarships (which benefit the most well-to-do people). 

Chesser is ex-military. He served in combat in Iraq as a turret gunner. After Iraq he transitioned to police officer, first in Nags Head and then in Raleigh. Then he went into business for five years as a bail bondsman. Then he became a computer technician and then -- now -- he's VP of Technology and Security for Carrolton Facility Maintenance in Rocky Mount. Emphasis on "security."

Allen credits his time as a police officer in South-East Raleigh for "opening his eyes to the struggles found within the intercity and igniting his passion to help; a passion that still drives him today" (website). That's not MAGA talk. Rather than culture warrior, he's all business and brags that he brought $55 million in pork to Nash. He's apparently a darling of the business community.

He's another youngish Republican candidate -- a second is Melinda Bales -- who keeps their distance from Trump and trumpism while adhering to an ethos of economic conservatism. Sure, Chesser and any Republican candidate down-ballot from Trump, is gonna salute the leader and show some visible enthusiasm for another Trump presidency, but they're not carrying any flaming torches and might actually hold back their allegiance in the coming Second Civil War. Chesser did post on Twitter that we ought to pray for Donald Trump/pray for America (e pluribus, mates!), but otherwise he doesn't indulge in any hot-button-pushing conservative memes. He's cagey about looking extreme, though he has been a big wig in the North Carolina Republican Liberty Caucus, a Libertarian-leaning PAC that endorses candidates whilst promoting "the ideals of individual liberty, limited government, and free market economics" (the chalice from the palace with the brew that is true).

Last March, Chesser faced a Republican primary with a Black woman, Yvonne McLeod, who had come close to beating him two years earlier in the Republican primary of 2022. Two years later, Chesser easily beats McLeod with 66% of the vote. McLeod had been led to challenge Chesser over the gambling casino fiasco. Nash was a target county for one of the four new proposed casinos pushed by Phil Berger. It would have been near Rocky Mount. Chesser was all in for that development, but that drew backlash from all sorts of conservative Republicans, who ran Yvonne McLeod against him.

Lorenza Wilkins, Democrat

His bio on his website contains a puzzling description of his current activities: he's "an equity-driven servant leader and inductee into the National Society of Leadership and Success," an honor society that gives scholarships to ambitious young people of limited means but doesn't appear to hire. Almost in the same sentence, he vaguely mentions "a career of advocating for education, small businesses, and our children," which I take means Wilkins lives on the slim operations budget of more than one non-profit. He eventually nails it down to "currently serving as Chief Officer of People and Culture at the Inter-Faith Food Shuttle." The Inter-Faith Food Shuttle is a charitable non-profit affiliated with the Feeding America National Network of Food Banks. "We recover and distribute food to our low-income neighbors, but we know putting food on a plate is not enough. We also provide programs designed to empower people with skills to meet their own food needs through culinary job training, beginner gardening, and cooking healthy on a budget."

Wilkins is a former student-athlete at North Carolina Central University and holds a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration, a Master of Business Administration, and a Doctor of Business Administration from Columbia Southern University. He does go by "Doctor" on his website. He will compete with Republican Chesser for the mantel of business-friendly:

Dr. Wilkins is working to foster an environment where businesses continue coming to North Carolina, creating jobs, and increasing the quality of life for communities across our state.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee recently awarded Wilkins its "Spotlight" designation, which should provide a fundraising and advertising boost. But NC House Republicans are salting Chesser's coffers even more, setting aside over $500,000 to help keep Chesser in office. Wilkins' fundraising has been anemic. According to The Enterprize, "Wilkins trails Chesser by more than six figures in the money race," which can be a worrying signal of low enthusiasm.

There's social media evidence that Wilkins has some ground game going. If he can rally the Democrats and the progressive Unaffiliated, he has a shot, which would actually be vastly aided by an energing 2024 Blue Wave.