The Importance of Virginia

Virginia State Capitol, Richmond

News&Observer editorialist Ned Barnett got me focused on the vote happening next Tuesday in Virginia, ungerrymandered Virginia (compared to NC), where Democrats rule the state senate 22-18 and Republicans rule the state House also 22-18, and Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin is just itching to sign an abortion ban, he sez, when Republicans also control the senate. The elections for all those Virginia legislative seats happen next Tuesday, and Ned Barnett says it'll be a potential bellwether for North Carolina in 2024. 

Barnett wrote the words (which I turned into a more graphic display):

The Virginia vote will show whether ...

(1) new state abortion laws are a decisive issue for Democratic performance?

(2) whether right-wing attacks on school diversity policies is still motivating voters like it did in 2022?

(3) whether Black voters and young voters are motivated enough to turn out and vote?

I have not researched any of the Virginia legislative races this year, so I'll have to rely on mass media come Wednesday morning for numbers and analysis. 

On the potency of the abortion issue for Democratic performance, North Carolina has already done -- banned abortion after 12 weeks -- what Glenn Youngkin in Virginia promises to do (though Youngkin is more comfortable with 15 weeks).  We expect the resentment against the abortion ban to remain strong in urban and suburban North Carolina, but this state is much more blatantly gerrymandered now for partisan advantage, with "communities of interest" "cracked and packed" to smithereens.

I'll be watching Virginia, you bet!