Movement Is All in the Democratic Direction

Political prognosticator Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia issued new Crystal Ball ratings yesterday. They show movement, and all of it is in the direction of the Democrats. Here's the chart I found most interesting because we've focused on WatWatch on some of these Republican incumbents and their Democratic challengers. See discussion below the chart.

Crystal Ball House ratings changes

Member/District	Old Rating	New Rating
French Hill (R, AR-2)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Vern Buchanan (R, FL-16)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Charlie Crist (D, FL-13)	Likely Democratic	Safe Democratic
Steve King (R, IA-4)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
David Young (R, IA-3)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
Peter Roskam (R, IL-6)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
Trey Hollingsworth (R, IN-9)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
Jackie Walorski (R, IN-2)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
Andy Barr (R, KY-6)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
Mike Bishop (R, MI-8)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
NM-2 Open (Pearce, R)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Steve Chabot (R, OH-1)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
OH-12 Special (Tiberi, R)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
Mike Kelly (R, PA-16)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
John Carter (R, TX-31)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
John Culberson (R, TX-7)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
WV-3 Open (Jenkins, R)	Leans Republican	Toss-up

*The movement in notorious Steve King's 4th Iowa District might startle the horses, unless you've been paying attention to his Democratic challenger J.D. Sholten. We wrote about him on June 16.

*Andy Barr's seat in Kentucky's 6th District has moved to a toss-up between him and Amy McGrath, about whom we've written several times. She's one of the stand-out stars of 2018.

*In the 12th Congressional District of Ohio, with a special election coming on August 7 for an open seat, Democrat Danny O'Connor is now rated a toss-up to take the seat.

*The movement in John Carter's Texas District 31 is especially noteworthy, because one of the most electrifying Democrats we've observed all year, M.J. Hegar, is getting national attention with her introductory video.

*John Culberson's 7th Congressional District in Texas is now rated a toss-up. We took quick note of his Democratic challenger Lizzie Pannill Fletcher way back on December 19 of last year. She's obviously making waves.

*Finally, the open seat in West Virginia's 3rd District is suddenly now a toss-up. We took notice of the Democratic challenger, Richard Ojeda, on June 19. There hasn't been a viable Democrat in that district of West Virginia in many years.