The Trend Continues

The New York Times published yesterday an analysis of new voter registration in the two swing states of Ohio and Florida and found Democratic registrations surging, particularly in urban counties with large minority populations:

"...in Democratic areas of Ohio ... new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000. In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas. A similar pattern is apparent in Florida: in the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration is 60 percent higher than in 2000, while it has risen just 12 percent in the heaviest Republican areas."

This matches up with our own local anecdotal evidence that while there is considerable energy and enthusiasm on the Democratic side of things, the support for Bush is mechanical, uninspired, and unenergetic. "Don't change horses in mid-stream" is a tired cliche rather than a fired-up rallying cry.

Searching for HOPE amid the polls and John Kerry's inability to connect with the voters? "While comparable data could not be obtained for other swing states, similar registration drives have been mounted in them as well, and party officials on both sides say record numbers of new voters are being registered nationwide. This largely hidden but deadly earnest battle is widely believed by campaign professionals and political scientists to be potentially decisive in the presidential election."

"In Florida, where The Times was able to analyze data from 60 of the state's 67 counties, new registrations this year also are running far ahead of the 2000 pace, with Republican areas trailing Democratic ones. In the 150 ZIP codes that voted most heavily for Mr. Bush, 96,000 new voters have registered this year, up from 86,000 in 2000, an increase of about 12 percent. But in the heaviest of Democratic areas, 110 ZIP codes that gave two-thirds or more of their votes to Al Gore, new registrations have increased to 125,000 from 77,000, a jump of more than 60 percent."

In North Carolina, Republicans have had paltry new registrations to boast of. Democrats have been kicking their butts pretty much everywhere. We haven't run the numbers yet in Watauga County, but stand by for that news!