I'm coming to resent the poor-mouthing I hear from some Democratic activists. Maybe we lose the Democratic House and the Democratic Senate, and maybe we don't. You cherry-pick your intimations of doom, and I'll cherry-pick ... my cherries. The prediction that 2022 is going to rival 2010 for the Democrats has become conventional wisdom. Conventional wisdom is a ass and a idiot (to paraphrase Mr. Bumble).
So it pleasures me to note that the professional yakkers (especially) are beginning to express doubt that the Democrats are going down hard. The Sunday morning shows today had examples of it, and then I happened on Amy Walter's "Summer Breeze" essay on the Cook Political Report. Maybe the winds are blowing the other way now, not that Democrats can really avoid at least some losses in the House. Walter quotes her colleague David Wasserman's analysis: "... the better-than-expected showings by Democratic candidates in NE-01 and MN-01 House specials mean 'we're no longer living in a political environment as pro-GOP as November 2021'."
Other tangible signs:
At the start of the summer, Republicans had a 2 point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. Today, the two parties are basically tied (Democrats up 0.1 in the FiveThirtyEight average).
...polling taken this month and last by Monmouth found a 'generic Democrat' running anywhere from 11 to 14 points better among independent voters than Biden's job approval ratings with these same voters. For example, the most recent Monmouth poll found a Democrat pulling 47 percent of the vote from independent voters — which is 14 points higher than Biden's anemic 33 percent job approval rating with these voters. A late July Quinnipiac poll, which found Republicans ahead by just one point on the generic ballot question (44 to 43 percent), also found Democrats doing 12 points better among independents than Biden's anemic 23 percent.
It's that turn among independent voters that's most significant for us in North Carolina, where by last count the Unaffiliated population of voters has overtaken both the Democrats and the Republicans. It's the unaffiliated who hold our fate in their hands, and don't they see Trump and Trumpists for what they are?
A couple of days ago, Alexander H. Jones over at PoliticsNC published a column titled "Is a Red Wave On the Way? Maybe Not," both exhibiting the fracturing of the convention wisdom while still wearing the mask of tragedy: ":...the Democratic party looks as if it may well have the power to blunt Republican momentum and sustain a smaller blow to their majorities than almost everyone in the political class had confidently predicted...."
Still gonna take a hit, sez Jones, especially to its majority in the US House, but "a smaller blow." I both like that and resist its ingrained down-at-the-mouth bracing for disaster. But then, I work campaigns as well as write about them, and I demand hope to carry on.
5 comments:
'It's that turn among independent voters that's most significant for us in North Carolina, where by last count the Unaffiliated population of voters has overtaken both the Democrats and the Republicans. It's the unaffiliated who hold our fate in their hands, and don't they see Trump and Trumpists for what they are?'
Once again, if you had referred to ALL politicians, I would agree with you.
Thinking one party is somehow better than another is akin to thinking copperheads are better than rattlesnakes.
Both are dangerous.
As for the supposed Red Wave, I agree it won't be as big as many predicted, because Repubs are nothing but proficient in stepping on their dicks.
How is refusing to pick a side NOT an admission that democracy doesn't work, so why bother?
Ask the 2.5 MILLION unaffiliated NC voters.
Choice is not the lesser of two evils. ITS WALKING AWAY FROM A RIGGED GAME.
Freedom is not playing one party against the other when both parties refuse to obey the government's founding document, and work for their and their parties own benefit, not ours.
We are a REPUBLIC not a democracy. We elect representatives to that Republic. What do you expect folks to do when neither political party serves or represents the people?
Seems 2.5 million Carolinians are asking that question.
Democracy demonstrably DOES NOT WORK. Democracy is MOB RULE. Period.
The answer is in the county's founding document, the Declaration of Independence.
The following in a verbatim quote, and not for the faint of heart.
"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."
This is the founding principle of our country. You can argue about it all you want, but the people have "the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness"
NOT to tear it all down and supplant it with chaos.
This is why lefties get the collywobbles about those pesky right wingers.
Got it. You're an insurrectionist who wants to see the whole sebang burned down.
But have to remind you that a pluraity of those 2.5 million Unaffiliated voters have been voting recently for Democrats.
'Got it. You're an insurrectionist who wants to see the whole sebang burned down'
Wrong. I specifically said not to tear it all down and supplant it with chaos.
The Declaration says 'it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."
Which may or may not include Republicans and democrats.
If a plurality of unaffiliated voters are voting your way, then why worry?
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