DD Adams won the Democratic nomination for the US House on May 8th. She's the eighth Democrat to take on incumbent Republican Virginia Foxx. Foxx has rolled seven Democrats already, since her first election in 2004. DD Adams could be the eighth. At least, that's what Republicans assume. Foxx's campaign war chest, her good constituent services, and her image as a good old baptist grandma with a reputation for stinginess -- that persona gets Foxx reelected.
Plus -- let's just get this over with -- DD Adams is African American in a House district where even registered Democrats wouldn't vote for Obama in 2008 because of the Civil War. I know it, you know it, we all know it. So how in the world could Adams ever win it?
Foxx was last reelected in 2016 with 207,625 votes against Josh Brannon's 147,887. That's her highest vote tally ever:
96,000 votes -- that's all she got in her first reelection contest in 2006 against Roger SharpeIn other words, Foxx's hardcore base is somewhere between 96,000 and 140,000 voters. In presidential years, another 60,000-80,000 Republicans show up and vote for her, but they don't pay that much attention, and what the hell! Vote for Foxx cause she's on the ballot and registered R and we hear that she doesn't like the guvmint spending money. Those Republicans show up in presidential years, but they may not this year. They usually don't in non-presidential years.
190,000 - 200,000 votes -- presidential years, always winning easily
140,000 votes -- non-presidential years, her standard tally, which also gets her reelected easily, but she's never had all of Forsyth County before
(You can look up the numbers too, same as me, at the State Board of Elections site)
So let's say only Foxx's hardcore base -- up to 140,000 voters -- turns out for her in the non-presidential year of 2018 -- why, Forsyth and Watauga alone could elect Adams, if Democratic enthusiasm is still running high and Republican, running low, and if Adams can pull a substantial proportion of unaffiliated votes:
104,381 registered Dems
76,486 registered Unaffiliated
(Republicans number 75,734)
12,137 registered Dems
19,000 registered Unaffiliated
(Republicans number 14,036)
More likely: Adams needs Democratic support in all the rural counties.With heavy turn-out in Forsyth and Watauga and with respectable support in the other counties, she could have a shot at winning. Yes, she could.
The people in the rural counties don't know her yet. So she's got to go to Alleghany County and to Yadkinville and to East Bend and to North Wilkesboro, and to the deepest recesses of Stokes County, and to the furthest fish frys in Avery and Alexander, and everywhere else in between, and put that courage of hers on display. As the angel announcing good tidings said, "Be not afraid!" She's got to put herself in the rural counties to break the chains of the Civil War, or at least weaken them and make 2018 a genuine race.