Interesting poll, this, just out today. "The poll finds Kerry leading Bush in the presidential contest by 49% to 44% among registered voters, and 50% to 44% among likely voters."
More important are the figures for the "battleground" states. Kerry has whopping leads (20%) over Bush in the "blue states," those won by Gore in 2000 by more than 5 percentage points. Bush leads Kerry in the "red states," but by only four (measly) percentage points. The Gallup people have added another color category ... the "purple states," those won by either Gore or Bush in 2000 by margins of 5 points or less -- and there Kerry leads by 5 points, 49% to 44%. That's without Nader.
The potential Nader spoiler effect, however, needs to be factored in, since Gallup shows Nader currently pulling 7% in "red" and "purple" states and 8% in the "blue." Worrisome.
Though not as worrisome as those numbers overall should be for the Rovians! We note that a couple of weeks ago the "anger level" among voters about the Iraq War -- in an ABC/Washington Post poll -- had spiked up noticeably. Bush has lost support, and people are getting pissed off. Not so good, if you're El Presidente.